Shibor利率体系的现实与推进建议

Shibor运行一年多日寸间来，其在提升自身基准利率地位及推进国内利率市场化方面所取得的成绩有目共睹。文章从探讨目前较受关注的中长期Shibor的合理性人手，分析了Shibor定价机理的现实基础及定价分歧的缘由，并从宏观和微观两个层面就完善Shibor利率体系建设提出建议。     

Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises

The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for structural credit risk models developed by Duan [Duan, J.-C., 1994. Maximum likelihood estimation using price data of the derivative contract. Mathematical Finance 4, 155–167] is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470]. We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm’s asset volatility. The estimated magnitude of trading noise is in line with the direction that a firm’s liquidity will predict based on three common liquidity proxies. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.     

Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors

Using the measure of risk aversion suggested by Kihlstrom and Mirman [Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1974. Risk aversion with many commodities. Journal of Economic Theory 8, 361–388; Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1981. Constant, increasing and decreasing risk aversion with many commodities. Review of Economic Studies 48, 271–280], we propose a dynamic consumption-savings–portfolio choice model in which the consumer-investor maximizes the expected value of a non-additively separable utility function of current and future consumption. Preferences for consumption streams are CES and the elasticity of substitution can be chosen independently of the risk aversion measure. The additively separable case is a special case. Because choices are not dynamically consistent, we follow the “consistent planning” approach of Strotz [Strotz, R., 1956. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 23, 165–180] and also interpret our analysis from the game theoretic perspective taken by Peleg and Yaari [Peleg, B., Yaari, M., 1973. On the existence of a consistent course of action when tastes are changing. Review of Economic Studies 40, 391–401]. The equilibrium of the Lucas asset pricing model with i.i.d. consumption growth is obtained and the equity premium is shown to depend on the elasticity of substitution as well as the risk aversion measure. The nature of the dependence is examined. Our results are contrasted with those of the non-expected utility recursive approach of Epstein–Zin and Weil.     

What Collusion? Unilateral Market Power as a Catalyst for Countercyclical Markups

This paper presents and tests a simple model of competitive and unilateral market power regimes that yields countercyclical markups. Following a decrease in demand in the short run, capacity-constrained firms may have a strong incentive not to lower their prices to the new competitive price. Demand shocks may introduce market power into a previously competitive market. Experimental posted offer markets support this conjecture with complete information on the market structure. With only private information, there appears to be a hysteresis effect concerning supracompetitive prices, i.e., markets with a history of supracompetitive pricing continue to generate supracompetitive prices following demand shocks. However, competitive markets also remain competitive following demand shocks when firms only have private information on costs and capacities.     

The impact of regulation on the retail prices in fixed-line telephony across the European Union

This paper estimates reduced-form models for incumbent prices in the fixed telecommunications industry using data for European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2002. The regulation of fixed-line telephony has a significant impact on prices for residential consumers. Liberalization of the telecommunications industry decreased retail prices by about 8.2%. The introduction of carrier pre-selection and number portability had a negative impact on price levels. The estimation results also suggest that a 1% decrease in termination charges on the incumbent network led on average to a 0.17% decrease in the cost of usage basket for residential consumers. Furthermore, in the pricing regressions for incumbent local and national calls at peak and off-peak times interconnection charges are significant only in the estimation of national peak prices. A 1% decrease in single transit interconnection charges on the incumbent network led to a 0.31% decrease in incumbent national prices at peak times, as calculated for the average prices in the EU in 2002.     

Across-sample Incomparability of R2s and Additional Evidence on Value Relevance Changes Over Time

Abstract:  Given the increasing popularity of across-sample R ² comparisons in accounting research, this paper illustrates why the regression R ²s are incomparable across samples and the general nature of this problem. The regression residual dispersion with proper control for scale is proposed as the alternative measure of explanatory power for across-sample comparisons. In market-on-accounting variable regressions, this measure can be conveniently interpreted as the degree of accounting-based pricing errors and be used as a measure of value relevance of accounting information. As an application, the issue of over-time value relevance changes is re-visited. In contrast to prior mixed findings based on the R ² measure, a decline of value relevance since the early 1970s is robustly detected using the alternative measure.     

存款保险制度下银行道德风险计量范式——期权定价模型

存款保险制度作为金融安全网三大基本要素之一，在保护小额存款人、维持公众信心等方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。但是这一制度的实施，会诱发道德风险，给整个金融体系的安全带来负面影响。本文基于期权定价模型，提出在实行存款保险体制下的道德风险计量思路，从而为相关监管部门决策提供依据。     

On a general class of one-factor models for the term structure of interest rates

We propose a general one-factor model for the term structure of interest rates which based upon a model for the short rate. The dynamics of the short rate is described by an appropriate function of a time-changed Wiener process. The model allows for perfect fitting of given term structure of interest rates and volatilities, as well as for mean reversion. Moreover, every type of distribution of the short rate can be achieved, in particular, the distribution can be concentrated on an interval. The model includes several popular models such as the generalized Vasicek (or Hull-White) model, the Black-Derman-Toy, Black-Karasinski model, and others. There is a unified numerical approach to the general model based on a simple lattice approximation which, in particular, can be chosen as a binomial or -nomial lattice with branching probabilities .     

谈不同计价方式对建筑产品价格影响的分析

文章主要从亲自运用过的不同计价方式——定额计价方式与清单计价方式对同一类建筑产品价格的影响,分析两种计价方式的特点,指出计价方式的发展方向。     

浅析影响REITs定价的因素

随着REITs即将在我国面世，对REITs的定价研究也越来越被提上日程。从标的建筑物未来现金流、投资者结构、REITs红利分配政策及税收优惠3方面入手，介绍它们对REITs定价的影响。