Genetically Modified Crops and Product Differentiation: Trade and Welfare Effects in the Soybean Complex

A partial equilibrium four-region world trade model for the soybean complex is developed in which Roundup Ready (RR) products are weakly inferior substitutes to conventional ones, RR seeds are priced at a premium, and costly segregation is necessary to separate conventional and biotech products. Solution of the calibrated model illustrates how incomplete adoption of RR technology arises in equilibrium. The United States, Argentina, Brazil, and the Rest of the World (ROW) all gain from the introduction of RR soybeans, although some groups may lose. The impacts of RR production or import bans by the ROW or Brazil are analyzed. U.S. price support helps U.S. farmers, despite hurting the United States and has the potential to improve world efficiency.     

Information sharing about a demand shock

This paper examines two questions in asymmetric Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly with a demand shock. Under which conditions is information sharing a subgame-perfect equilibrium? What is the welfare effect when firms are better off? Given these questions, the normal assumptions in the earlier literature can be relaxed in three ways: demand functions can be asymmetric; a demand shock can affect firms differently; distributions of the demand shock and information signals can be arbitrary. Under these general assumptions, the answer to the first question is: every firm's response to the demand shock is stronger when all firms have perfect information than when one firm does so alone; the answer to the second question is: social welfare increases in Cournot competition, and consumer surplus decreases in Bertrand competition.     

Friedman and Schwartz (1982) revisited: Assessing annual and phase-average models of money demand in the United Kingdom

Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. mondy demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an annual model from Ericsson, Hendry, and Prestwich (1998a), whereas models based on the phase-average data fare poorly.The first author is a staff economist in the Division of International Finace, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 USA. The second author is Leverhulme Personal Research Professor of Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF. The third author was a research assistan in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board when this paper was initially drafted. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. The first author gratefully acknowledges the generous hospitality of Norges Bank, where he revised some of the material herein. The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the U.K. Economic and Social Research Council under grant R000234954. We wish to thank Clifford Attfield, David Demery, and Nigel Duck for compiling the data in Attfield, Demery, and Duck (1995); and Neva Kerbeshian, Helmut Lütkepohl, Jaime Marquez, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. All numerical results were obtained using PcGive Professional Version 9.0: see Doornik and Hendry (1996). The data may be obtained from the Internet at http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oeknometrie/engl/data.html     

完善煤炭市场体系促进经济较快发展

本文认为,近年来推行的煤炭订货改革有效发挥了市场配置资源的基础性作用,加快了政府职能转变,初步形成了国家宏观调控指导下供需双方企业自主衔接资源、协商定价的新机制,为保障煤炭稳定供应、促进经济平稳较快发展奠定了重要基础。2007年是推进煤炭订货改革关键性的一年,为进一步推进改革,加强市场监管,规范市场行为,建立并完善统一开放、竞争有序的煤炭市场体系,煤炭订货改革要进一步引入市场机制,简化铁路运力配置框架;依法规范购销关系,企业自主签订合同;完善煤炭价格市场形成机制,供需双方协商定价;以提高运输效率为核心,优化运力配置。有关各方应认清形势,自觉适应并支持改革;把握原则要求,加快衔接进度;落实企业定价自主权,搞好价格协商;加强行业自律,规范企业行为,为建成既能实现市场主体自由交易,又有利于国家宏观调控、市场运作、规范运行、功能齐全、层次分明、方式多样、手段先进的现代煤炭市场化体系,搞好组织实施与衔接工作。     

季节性产品供应链中的供需管理策略研究

文章针对季节性产品的需求特性提出了基于供应链的季节性产品供需管理策略,并在分析促销对需求的影响的基础上,结合总体计划的制定,探讨了促销时机的选择问题。     

基于用户需求信息的VMI模式改进

从需求信息突破点前移的理论出发,对传统VMI的管理模式进行了改进,将需求信息关注点扩展至生产计划信息的共享与制定,以得到满足需求同时有效控制库存的效果。     

Optimal investment,derivative demand,and arbitrage under price impact

This paper studies the optimal investment problem with random endowment in an inventory‐based price impact model with competitive market makers. Our goal is to analyze how price impact affects optimal policies, as well as both pricing rules and demand schedules for contingent claims. For exponential market makers preferences, we establish two effects due to price impact: constrained trading and nonlinear hedging costs. To the former, wealth processes in the impact model are identified with those in a model without impact, but with constrained trading, where the (random) constraint set is generically neither closed nor convex. Regarding hedging, nonlinear hedging costs motivate the study of arbitrage free prices for the claim. We provide three such notions, which coincide in the frictionless case, but which dramatically differ in the presence of price impact. Additionally, we show arbitrage opportunities, should they arise from claim prices, can be exploited only for limited position sizes, and may be ignored if outweighed by hedging considerations. We also show that arbitrage‐inducing prices may arise endogenously in equilibrium, and that equilibrium positions are inversely proportional to the market makers' representative risk aversion. Therefore, large positions endogenously arise in the limit of either market maker risk neutrality, or a large number of market makers.     

University population expenditure and its impact on real estate demand: Evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT

A university campus has an ability to attract consumers from outside the region who spend locally to the benefit of the local economy and in particular the real estate market. This article identifies the real estate benefit to the host city from staff and student spending. The Potchefstroom Campus of the North-West University in South Africa is used as an example and real estate demand modelling is applied to estimate the real estate space demand benefit to the host city. In 2016, the R2.2 billion expenditure by staff and students spilled over into a healthy demand for floor space in the city. A steady increase in on-campus, full-time students and a corresponding increase in staff numbers will continue to benefit the demand for real estate. However, this close relationship between university enrolments and activity in the real estate market could similarly be constrained if spending is under pressure.     

Advanced manufacturing systems: supply–demand matching of manufacturing resource based on complex networks and Internet of Things

ABSTRACT

After investigation on the existing advanced manufacturing systems (AMSs), it is found that supply–demand matching of manufacturing resource is one of the common issues to be addressed in all AMSs, and methods for addressing this issue have evolved from P2P (peer-to-peer)-based, to information centre-based, and to platform (or system)-based matching, and are moving towards socialisation and service-based solutions. In order to adapt to this trend, a new method for manufacturing resource supply–demand matching based on complex networks and Internet of Things (IoT) is proposed, and a four-layered architecture for implementing this method is designed. In this method, IoT technology is employed to realise the intelligent perception and accessing of various manufacturing resources and capabilities (MR&C), which enables logical aggregation of various distributed MR&C in the form of services. Then complex networks model and theory are used to realise the efficient manufacturing service management, optimal-allocation, and supply–demand matching. In this article, the specific key technologies for implementing the method are presented, including key technologies for manufacturing service generation and aggregation, manufacturing demand/task management, supply–demand matching of MR&C in the form of services, and value/utility adding based on manufacturing service network (MSN), manufacturing task network (MTN) and manufacturing enterprises collaborative network (ECN).     

Modelling preference heterogeneity for theatre tickets: a discrete choice modelling approach on Royal Danish Theatre booking data

This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect to the attributes associated with each ticket alternative (quality of the seat and day of the performance). In addition, the willingness to pay of choice attributes is estimated. Final results suggest that customers’ characteristics in terms of age and frequency of theatre attendance characterize different patterns of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket.