Observed Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve*

This paper investigates the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in explaining US inflation when observed measures of inflation expectations are used in conjunction with the output gap. The paper contributes to the literature by addressing the important problem of serial correlation in the stylized NKPC and developing an extended model to account for this serial correlation. Contrary to recent results indicating no role for the output gap, we find it to be a statistically significant driving variable for inflation, with this finding robust to whether the inflation expectations series used relates to individual consumers, professional forecasters or the US Fed.     

Habit formation in state-dependent pricing models: Implications for the dynamics of output and prices

This paper examines the role of habit formation in a standard state-dependent pricing (SDP) model. Incorporating habit formation helps the SDP model to generate hump-shaped and more persistent output responses under a monetary shock. More importantly, incorporating habit formation causes dramatic changes in firm-level pricing behaviors and, as a result, the aggregate price index.     

Runner‐up Patents: Is Monopoly Inevitable?

Exclusive patents sacrifice product competition to provide firms incentives to innovate. We characterize an alternative mechanism whereby later inventors are allowed to share the patent if they discover within a certain time period of the first inventor. These runner‐up patents increase social welfare under very general conditions. Furthermore, we show that the time window during which later inventors can share the patent should become a new policy tool at the disposal of the designer. This instrument will be used in a socially optimal mix with the breadth and length of the patent and could allow sorting between more or less efficient firms.     

An Economic Definition of the Middle Class

The concept of a middle class is prevalent in both common parlance and the social sciences; concern is frequently expressed that the middle class is shrinking, and politicians often position themselves as champions of the middle class. Yet the phrase “middle class” is extremely ambiguous; no consensus exists on either the upper bound or the lower bound separating the middle class from other classes. The present paper employs the government’s official poverty line as the demarcation between the poor and the middle class, and develops an equivalent distinction to separate the middle class from the wealthy. Based on the new definition, the paper provides some rough empirical estimates of the size of the American middle class over the 1989–2004 period.     

Parametric Lorenz Curves and the Modality of the Income Density Function

Similar looking Lorenz curves can imply very different income density functions and potentially lead to wrong policy implications regarding inequality. This paper derives a relation between a Lorenz curve and the modality of its underlying income density: given a parametric Lorenz curve, it is the sign of its third derivative which indicates whether the density is unimodal or zeromodal (i.e., downward‐sloping). The density modality of several important Lorenz curves such as the Pareto, Weibull, Singh–Maddala parametrizations and hierarchical families of Lorenz curves are discussed. A Lorenz curve performance comparison with Monte Carlo simulations and data from the UNU–WIDER World Income Inequality Database underlines the relevance of the theoretical result: curve‐fitting based on criteria such as mean squared error or the Gini difference might lead to a Lorenz curve implying an incorrectly‐shaped density function. It is therefore important to take into account the modality when selecting a parametric Lorenz curve.     

The gender wage gap among recent post‐secondary graduates in Canada: a distributional approach

Using the National Graduates Survey, we examine the trends in the gender wage gap among recent post‐secondary graduates in Canada between 1988 and 2007. Female graduates earn on average 6–14% less than males during the period two to five years after graduation. Decompositions show that observable personal characteristics and job attributes can explain only a small portion of the wage gap. We also find that men earn more than women at every point of the distribution. Interestingly, the wage difference shrank in the lower half of the distribution in recent years, while it increased in the upper half.     

Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems

This paper discusses summary measures for the speed of adjustment in possibly cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes (VAR). In particular we propose long-run half-lives, based on interim and total multipliers. We discuss their relation with Granger-noncausality and other types of half-life, which are shown to convey different information, except in the univariate AR(1) case. We present likelihood-based inference on long-run half-lives, regarded as discrete functions of parameters in the VAR model. It is shown how asymptotic confidence regions can be defined. An empirical illustration concerning speed of adjustment to purchasing-power parity is provided.     

Are all CEOs above average? An empirical analysis of compensation peer groups and pay design

Companies can potentially use compensation peer groups to inflate pay by choosing peers that are larger, choosing a high target pay percentile, or choosing peer firms with high pay. Although peers are largely selected based on characteristics that reflect the labor market for managerial talent, we find that peer groups are constructed in a manner that biases compensation upward, particularly in firms outside the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500. Pay increases close only about one-third of the gap between the pay of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the peer group, however, suggesting that boards exercise discretion in adjusting compensation. Preliminary evidence suggests that increased disclosure has reduced the biases in peer group choice.     

Poverty,undernutrition and vulnerability in rural India: role of rural public works and food for work programmes

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) or Food for Work programme (FFW) on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India using the large household data sets constructed by the National Sample Survey for 1993 and 2004. The treatment-effects model is used to take account of sample selection bias in evaluating the effects of RPW in 1993 or FFW in 2004 on poverty. We have found significant and negative effects of participation in RPW and the Food for Work Programme on poverty, undernutrition (e.g. protein) and vulnerability in 1993 and 2004.     

An analysis of default risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program

While reverse mortgages are intended as a tool to enable financial security for older homeowners, in 2014, nearly 12 percent of reverse mortgage borrowers in the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program were in default on their property taxes or homeowners insurance. Unlike the traditional mortgage market, there were no risk-based underwriting guidelines for HECMs through 2014. In response to the relatively high default rate, a variety of policy responses were implemented, including establishing underwriting guidelines. However, there is a lack of data and analysis to inform such criteria. Our analysis follows 30,000 seniors counseled for reverse mortgages between 2006 and 2011. The data includes comprehensive financial and credit report attributes, not typically available in analyses of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using a bivariate probit model that accounts for selection, we estimate the likelihood of tax and insurance default. Financial characteristics that increase default risk include the percentage of funds withdrawn in the first month of the loan, a lower credit score, higher property tax to income ratio, low or no unused revolving credit, and a history of being past due on mortgage payments or having a tax lien on the property. Our estimate of the elasticity of default with respect to credit scores is similar to that for closed-end home equity loans, but higher than that for HELOCs. We simulate the effects of alternative underwriting criteria and policy changes on the probability of take-up and default. Reductions in the default rate with a minimal effect on participation can be achieved by requiring that participants with low credit scores set aside some of their HECM funds for future property tax and insurance payments, a form of escrowing.