我国商业银行并购绩效文献综述

并购重组是典型的市场配置资源手段,是经济效率提升的重要载体,市场经济条件下的并购同样是银行业寻找新的增长点的关键。西方国家的银行并购经验对我国商业银行并购有借鉴意义,以市场化手段开展银行并购,有助于提升我国商业银行的国际竞争能力。     

Impacts of Additional Guidance Provided on International Financial Reporting Standards on the Judgments of Accountants

This pioneering study examines the impact of the provision of additional guidance on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as a “decision aid” on the accuracy of judgments of the accountants. To extend the prior research on accounting judgment and decision-making, we also examine the interactive effects of task complexity and additional guidance on the judgments of accountants. The results provide evidence that those accountants who are provided with decision aid in the form of additional guidance on IFRS make more accurate judgments than accountants who are not provided with such guidance. Furthermore, the study provides evidence that this additional guidance improves the judgments of accountants when they undertake tasks which they find complex. The results indicate that additional guidance on IFRS needs to be provided and suggests that accountants should exploit any guidance which is currently provided in IFRS and by the International Financial Reporting Standards Interpretations Committee.     

The Effects of Uncertainty and Disclosure on Auditors' Fair Value Materiality Decisions

Financial accounting standards increasingly require fair value measurements. I experimentally examine how uncertainty affects auditors’ adjustment decisions when evaluating fair values. I manipulate two types of uncertainty, input subjectivity and outcome imprecision, and one reporting choice, supplemental disclosure. I find that auditors are most likely to require adjustments when fair values contain both more input subjectivity and more outcome imprecision, but that this likelihood diminishes when clients supplement recognized fair values with additional disclosure. Thus, consistent with moral licensing, I find that auditors tolerate greater potential misstatement in the financial statements when clients provide disclosure, suggesting that the SEC's preference for supplemental disclosure may have the unintended consequence of affecting fair values recognized in the body of the financial statements. I also provide evidence that auditors determine adjustment size by comparing recorded fair value to the nearest bound, rather than the midpoint, of the auditors’ own range estimate, consistent with strict application of auditing standards.     

Bank Earnings Management and Tail Risk during the Financial Crisis

We show that a pattern of earnings management in bank financial statements has little bearing on downside risk during quiet periods, but seems to have a big impact during a financial crisis. Banks demonstrating more aggressive earnings management prior to 2007 exhibit substantially higher stock market risk once the financial crisis begins as measured by the incidence of large weekly stock price “crashes” as well as by the pattern of full‐year returns. Stock price crashes also predict future deterioration in operating performance. Bank regulators may therefore interpret them as early warning signs of impending problems.     

Accountability of independent directors: Evidence from firms subject to securities litigation

We examine which independent directors are held accountable when investors sue firms for financial and disclosure-related fraud. Investors can name independent directors as defendants in lawsuits, and they can vote against their reelection to express displeasure over the directors’ ineffectiveness at monitoring managers. In a sample of securities class action lawsuits from 1996 to 2010, about 11% of independent directors are named as defendants. The likelihood of being named is greater for audit committee members and directors who sell stock during the class period. Named directors receive more negative recommendations from Institutional Shareholder Services, a proxy advisory firm, and significantly more negative votes from shareholders than directors in a benchmark sample. They are also more likely than other independent directors to leave sued firms. Overall, shareholders use litigation along with director elections and director retention to hold some independent directors more accountable than others when firms experience financial fraud.     

Audit committee performance: ownership vs.independence – Did SOX get it wrong?

This study documents a positive relationship between audit committee stock ownership and firm performance in large US firms from 1998 to 2008. This study also finds a positive relationship between changes in ownership and performance. These results persist throughout the sample period, do not weaken after Sarbanes–Oxley and are robust to controlling for endogeneity between ownership and performance. After testing shows that there is no relationship between audit committee independence and firm performance, these findings suggest that audit committee stock ownership is an important corporate governance mechanism and potentially a more relevant variable than audit committee independence from a policy perspective.     

煤炭消费减速背景下煤炭企业发展战略研究——以山西省为例

目前全国在建煤炭产能14亿t,按照规划,2012—2014年年均投产规模应为5亿t左右,实际上2012—2013年平均每年产量只增长1亿t左右。2013年,我国煤炭产量增速仍继续下滑,同比回落1.4个百分点。试图用战略管理的基本工具分析我国煤炭大省——山西省煤炭企业面临的市场环境,同时提出该省煤炭企业相应的发展战略,即相关多元化战略和并购整合战略,希望对煤炭企业的发展具有借鉴意义。     

Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation. Instead, both the output gap and lags of the actual inflation rate are important determinants of inflation.     

Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34

We show how the silver standard transmitted world silver price fluctuations into China and made the Chinese price level closely linked to the world silver price. Inflation was transmitted between 1929 and 1931 when the world silver price was falling; while deflation was transmitted during 1932 and 1934 when the world silver price was rising. Using micro-level evidence and counterfactual simulations, we show that the exchange rate was the main shock transmission channel, and silver stocks played an insignificant role.     

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.