浅析知识经济评价指标体系

本文以新的角度从知识经济发展能力和知识经济发展水平两个方面构建知识经济指标体系。该指标体系体现了知识经济与可持续发展的关系。     

再论三峡库区旅游地空间的变动与重构——对《论三峡库区旅游地空间的变动与重构》的检验与发展

文章在梳理总结现有三峡旅游地空间结构研究的基础上,以2003～ 2009年三峡旅游地15区县的国内游客数和国内旅游收入数据为基础,运用位序—规模律对空间结构的变动进行了量化研究.文章发现,三峡旅游地总体上已经从空间极化阶段向均衡阶段转变,旅游产品变化、旅游交通完善和政府主导的跨区旅游企业整合等是影响空间重构的主要因素,并还将持续发挥影响.目前三峡旅游地已经形成了以万州和宜昌(夷陵—秭归)为组织核心,东段以三峡大坝—巫山—奉节为主要旅游吸引物,长江主航道、沪蓉、沪渝高速为主要轴线的旅游空间结构,但西段旅游组团的核心由丰都转为武隆,更多地表现为重庆都市圈旅游的特点,旅游空间结构的“东西分化”趋势明显;并有沿大宁河、神农溪等跨区旅游合作轴线向神农架和恩施州南北扩张的趋势.     

云南与GMS(东盟)国家农产品产业内贸易研究

本文通过Grubel-Lloyd进行实证分析,并采用了Greenaway(1995)提供的方法深入分析了云南省存在产业内贸易的具体农产品的产业内贸易结构,深层次的揭示了欠发达地区农产品产业内贸易的水平和结构,为云南省加强与GMS国家的农业合作的政策制定与实施提供一定的参考。     

我国上市公司财务危机预警系统研究

通过将Logistic回归分析法和因子分析法进行有效地组合,对我国上市公司的财务危机状况进行了研究。利用SPSS软件并以24个财务比率指标和5个因子变量为基础,建立了上市公司危机预警模型,并检验了其预测的准确率,结果表明判断准确率达到89.5%。同时对财务危机预警模型的两类错误成本进行了分析。     

Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications

This paper analyzes seasonality in the United Kingdom, specifically the English regions in relation to tourists' place of origin and main travel motivation. The method used is a decomposition of the Gini index, which provides relative marginal effects that facilitate the identification of market segments open to counter-seasonal marketing efforts. This method has been combined with a graphical multivariate technique (biplot), which groups segments according to their seasonality characteristics. Seasonal patterns associated with particular segments differ significantly when studied on a disaggregated basis. Therefore, an adequate level of disaggregation is essential in the design of counter-seasonal strategies. Although this study focuses on British destinations, this methodology could be used as a control and monitoring measure in the regional analysis of any destination, facilitating regular adjustment of regional tourism marketing campaigns to minimize seasonality effects, specifically by targeting the types of tourists less prone to seasonality.     

The contribution of social tourism to sustainable tourism: a case study of seasonally adjusted programmes in Spain

Recent policy from the European Union has attempted to justify social tourism initiatives on the basis that they lead to a more sustainable tourism industry. However, the majority of latest research in the field has been focused on the benefits for participants, with the addition of some evidence on the economic impacts of such programmes on destinations, which have pointed towards sustainability outcomes including: a longer tourism season, more even spread of demand, and longer periods of employment for tourism workers. Yet there is a lack of direct evidence linking such programme to these outcomes. This paper aimed to explore this important disconnect between policy assumptions and evidence-based outcomes through an analysis of the deseasonalising effects of the Spanish social tourism programme for older people. The research found that this programme does have an effect on the seasonal nature of employment and economic activity in most regions studied, but that the huge volume of demand from international tourists in the high seasons masks the quantitative effects in the regions with the highest seasonal concentration of international tourists. Recommendations for policy and practice in sustainable tourism are made that are transferable to many countries and regions that adopt social tourism programmes.     

Tourism competitiveness index of the Asia-Pacific region through consistency analysis

The world’s economy shifts to a more competitive environment as globalization expands and countries have to adjust by making decisions to improve their competitiveness in all sectors. The Travel and Tourism Report, a useful tool facilitating policy-making and business decisions, allows entities to envision their ranking in the face of the travel and tourism through the creation of a competitiveness index. Focusing on Asia and the Pacific, this paper intends to investigate internal consistency of the constructs based on data analysis techniques such as correlation and reliability, essentials to broader acceptance of the index. The results indicate that high linear association between index and pillars leads ultimately to good level of consistency and highlight the lack of relationship between overall consistency and inter-class consistency. It is suggested to pay close attention to unidimensionality of constructs and inter-relation between variables while building an indicator system as it increases its reliability.     

中国旅游业发展的省区差异及变化

科学审视省区旅游业发展的差异,是实现中国旅游业科学发展的基本前提.文章通过选取国内旅游人数、入境旅游人数、国内旅游收入、旅游外汇收入、旅游总收入相当于GDP百分比、旅游业就业人数占社会总就业人数的百分比等表征旅游业发展水平的6大统计指标,运用多元统计分析方法,评估了中国2000年与2010年旅游化指数的省区差异,发现近10年来中国旅游业发展仍然呈现出显著的区域非均衡性,一些中西部后发优势的省区旅游化程度在明显上升.其中,区位与资源禀赋、经济发展水平、政府政策、基础设施、节庆事件等是导致各地旅游化程度差异及其变化的主导因素.     

用地理集中指数衡量游客集中程度方法的一个改进

地理集中指数用来衡量游客集中度存在着一些不足,其大小受到样本数量多少的影响,既没有一个衡量的标准,又不能进行不同样本数量的结果的比较,且不够直观。考虑引入完全均匀分布的地理集中指数,并计算其与地理集中指数之差,再运用这个差值与完全平均的地理集中指数之比来衡量游客集中度,并称这个比值为游客集中度系数,这一系数可以较科学、直观地反映游客集中程度。     

改革开放以来中国乡镇企业全要素生产率增长的时空差异

利用非参数Mamquist指数方法分析了改革开放以来我国乡镇企业的全要素生产率(TFP)增长的时空特征。结果表明:1978年以来,乡镇企业TFP的年均增长率为4.8%,并且呈现出显著的阶段性变化和地区差异特征。从时间上来看,除了整顿提高阶段和调整创新阶段TFP的增长率为负以外,其他阶段TFP均实现了增长,并且表现为要素投入驱动和生产率提升双重驱动的特点,其中要素投入对经济增长的平均贡献占主体;从三大地带来看,乡镇企业TFP从东向西渐次降低;从八大综合经济区来看,北部和东部沿海综合经济区的乡镇企业TFP增长率最高,东北和长江中游综合经济区次之,其他四个综合经济地区相对较低。