企业区位决策、劳动力流动与集聚经济——基于外部性的一个初步思考

中国劳动力的流动是中国经济社会转型过程的产物,对不断变化中的劳动力流动持续进行观察与研究,具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。经济集聚是货币外部性和技术外部性共同作用的结果。劳动力流动通过本地市场放大效应、循环累积效应影响货币外部性,并通过加快技术传播速度、提高经济个体匹配成功率影响技术外部性;以外部性为纽带,劳动力流动最终影响到了企业区位决策,从而实现经济活动的集聚。     

基于产业升级的劳动力移民转移培训研究——以天津滨海新区为例

随着被纳入国家经济发展战略,承载着中国经济发展第三级功能的天津滨海新区面临着产业升级的课题.产业升级引发对技能型人才需求的"井喷".本文论证了劳动力移民作为低端操作型技能人才后备军的可行性,论证了该群体的可培训性,考察了天津劳动力移民职业培训的现状,分析了存在的问题,并提出了相应对策.     

Pathways out of poverty in lagging regions: evidence from rural western China

How to reduce poverty in lagging regions remains much debated and underserved with solid empirical evidence. This study illustrates an empirical methodology to analyze the pathways households followed out of poverty and to explore their potential in the future using 2000–2004 rural household panel data from two lagging provinces of China, Inner Mongolia and Gansu. It finds that rising labor productivity in agriculture has been key in understanding poverty reduction in rural lagging areas of these provinces and that it still holds much promise. Circular migration has also been important in Gansu, though less so in Inner Mongolia. On average, rural diversification has not proven to contribute much to poverty reduction and income transfers and agricultural tax abolishment have only helped at the margin. The findings from these two case studies highlight that the scope for reducing poverty in rural lagging regions can still be substantial in agriculture, also when nonagriculture drives national growth.     

The American frontier: Technology versus immigration

How important was international immigration for the US and its demography during the nineteenth century? This paper investigates, quantitatively, its effect on the westward movement of population and the regional and secular changes in fertility. Beside immigration, two alternative forces are considered: technological progress and the land policy (the Homestead Act). An optimal growth model with endogenous fertility and migration is calibrated, and counterfactual experiments reveal that the main driving forces were productivity growth and the declining cost of transportation. International immigration played a lesser role.     

Migration and its Determinants: A Study of Two Communities in Colombia

Using data gathered by the author in two communities in Southwestern Colombia, this paper tests a model of migration which incorporates relative deprivation as one of many possible reasons to migrate. The study finds that the product of relative deprivation and family income not only has a sensible interpretation; it is a better predictor of migration than its two component variables alone. Results also show that families with the highest propensities to migrate are those with the most to gain in terms of being better able to reduce relative deprivation through successful migration. These families, however, are neither at the bottom nor at the top of the income distribution in their communities. The study also finds that those most likely to migrate to the USA conform most closely to the immigration policies of the USA.

新疆区域内人口迁移现状及效果评价

人口迁移对区域经济和社会发展将产生重要影响,需要统筹考虑。本文根据第六次全国人口普查新疆数据,以新疆南疆、北疆和东疆地区为研究单元,从迁移数量、性别、年龄、受教育水平、职业、迁移流向和迁移原因等七个方面分析了新疆区域内人口迁移的现状,即区域内迁移人口呈现“北多南少”的态势、净迁移人口中女性人口多于男性人口、中青年人口是新疆区域内迁移人口的主体、迁移人口教育水平呈现“北高南低”的态势等,同时认为务工经商和随迁家属是区域内人口迁移的主要原因;最后对新疆区域内人口迁移的效果进行了评价。     

Editorial

Abstract

In this paper we summarize and comment on the papers published in issue 6.4. The papers reviewed are ‘Migrants and International Economic Linkages: A Meta-Overview’ by Peter Nijkamp, Masood Gheasi &; Piet Rietveld; ‘A Lustrum of SEA: Recent Research Trends Following the Creation of the Spatial Econometrics Association (2007–2011)’ by Giuseppe Arbia; ‘Do Natural Amenities Attract High-Tech Jobs?: Evidence From a Smoothed Bayesian Spatial Model’ by Jeffrey Dorfman, Mark Partridge &; Hamilton Galloway; ‘Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Regional Panel Data’, by Peter Jensen &; Torben Schmidt; and ‘Modelling Regional Welfare Efficiency Applying Conditional Full Frontiers’ by George Halkos &; Nickolaos Tzeremes.

RÉSUMÉ Dans la présente communication, nous récapitulons les communications publiées dans le numéro 6.4, et nous présentons des commentaires. Les communications examinées sont les suivantes : « Migrants et liens économiques internationaux : un aperçu général » par Peter Nijkamp, Masood Gheasi &; Piet Rietveld ; «Étude sur une période de cinq ans sur l'Association d’Économétrie spatiale (SEA) : tendances des travaux de recherche récents à la suite de la création de l'Association d’Économétrie spatiale [Spatial Econometrics Association (2007–2011)]», par Giuseppe Arbia; « Les agréments naturels attirent-ils des emplois dans la technologie de pointe ?: démonstration découlant d'un modèle spatial bayésien ajusté », par Jeffrey Dorfman, Mark Partridge &; Hamilton Galloway ; « Essais de dépendance transversale dans des données de panel régionaux », par Peter Jensen &; Torben Schmidt ; et « Modélisation de l'efficacité sociale régionale comportant l'application de frontières intégrales conditionnelles », par George Halkos &; Nickolaos Tzeremes.

EXTRACTO En este trabajo resumimos y hacemos comentarios sobre los ensayos publicados en la edición 6.4. Los ensayos revisados son: ‘Migrants and International Economic Linkages: A Meta-Overview’ (Emigrantes y vínculos económicos internacionales: una meta-perspectiva general) de Peter Nijkamp, Masood Gheasi &; Piet Rietveld; ‘A Lustrum of SEA: Recent Research Trends Following the Creation of the Spatial Econometrics Association (2007–2011)’ (Un lustro de SEA: tendencias investigativas recientes después de la creación de la Asociación Econométrica Espacial (2007–2011)) de Giuseppe Arbia; ‘Do Natural Amenities Attract High-Tech Jobs?: Evidence From a Smoothed Bayesian Spatial Model’ (¿Atraen las amenidades naturales empleos de alta tecnología?: Evidencia derivada de un modelo espacial bayesiano homogéneo) de Jeffrey Dorfman, Mark Partridge &; Hamilton Galloway; ‘Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Regional Panel Data’ (Prueba de la dependencia transversal en datos regionales de panel) de Peter Jensen &; Torben Schmidt; y ‘Modelling Regional Welfare Efficiency Applying Conditional Full Frontiers’ (Modelación de la eficiencia de servicios sociales regionales aplicando fronteras condicionales completas) de George Halkos &; Nickolaos Tzeremes.

     

劳动力市场分割、金融市场约束与迁移人口的结构变迁

我们通过世代交叠模型来研究中国劳动力市场分割背景下的城乡迁移的长期动态规律。研究表明,中国城乡之间的劳动力市场分割、城乡迁移成本和农村的金融约束共同塑造了中国城乡迁移的长期基本特征。农村人员迁移方式的选择不仅仅是其对城乡收入差距的静态反应,更多的反映了迁移人员对不同教育投资水平的长期理性选择。我们的定量化研究表明,打破城乡劳动力市场分割,深化户籍制度改革,改善中国农村的金融环境,可以不断的优化城乡劳动力迁移的数量结构和工资结构,完善迁移人员的人力资本投资和教育水平,降低城乡收入差距和全国收入不平等的程度,加速中国二元经济转型。     

中国农村人口迁移模型探索——一个对"民工荒"现象新的解释

本文构造了一个理论模型,得出了人口流动均衡条件,从而对“民工荒”现象做出了新的解释。本文的结论是迁移成本和就业概率决定了迁移人口的规模;农村工业部门的发展不仅分担城市就业压力,还缩小农民流动规模;农产品价格波动表示的农业剩余波动使得劳动力无限供给神话提前破灭,但并不意味着二元经济的终结。     

中国城乡发展的政治经济学

中国的城乡发展伴随着城市化滞后于工业化、城市内部形成“二元社会”分割以及城乡差距不断扩大这些特有的现象。户籍制度是导致上述现象的根源,反映出城乡政策制订中城市倾向的特征。这种扭曲的城市化过程导致的不良后果日益积累,也使得从城乡分割到城乡融合的制度变迁成为可能。理解中国的城乡发展,需要再传统的二元经济模型基础之上,增加城乡分割形成与演变的政治经济学的视角。