劳动力市场分割、金融市场约束与迁移人口的结构变迁

我们通过世代交叠模型来研究中国劳动力市场分割背景下的城乡迁移的长期动态规律。研究表明,中国城乡之间的劳动力市场分割、城乡迁移成本和农村的金融约束共同塑造了中国城乡迁移的长期基本特征。农村人员迁移方式的选择不仅仅是其对城乡收入差距的静态反应,更多的反映了迁移人员对不同教育投资水平的长期理性选择。我们的定量化研究表明,打破城乡劳动力市场分割,深化户籍制度改革,改善中国农村的金融环境,可以不断的优化城乡劳动力迁移的数量结构和工资结构,完善迁移人员的人力资本投资和教育水平,降低城乡收入差距和全国收入不平等的程度,加速中国二元经济转型。     

创业企业家不确定性容忍度对企业迁徙决策的影响

创业企业迁徙是创业企业成长过程中的重要决策。基于文献研究并结合创业企业家特征,构建创业企业迁徙意愿影响因素模型,重点探讨在不确定性容忍度影响下创业企业迁徙意愿影响因素及其作用机制。研究结果表明,政策环境、生活质量、政府服务质量是影响创业企业迁徙的三大外部因素,创业企业家不确定性容忍度则是重要的内部因素,随着创业企业家不确定性容忍度提高,生活质量对迁徙意愿的影响减弱,而政策环境对迁徙意愿的影响增强,表明当前创业企业孵化与迁徙受政策环境主导。研究结论进一步解释了迁徙情景中创业企业对区域经济环境不敏感以及云集于北上广深等生活成本畸高的城市等现象。     

Rating Migrations: The Effect of History and Time

We examine the effect of rating history and the passage of time on the rating migration hazard for corporate debt issuers. Controlling for industry effects and the evolution of business and political cycles, the results consistently show that the next change of rating depends more strongly on rating history than it does on the current rating. However, there are significant interactions between the main effects of rating history and the duration of the current rating. The result is substantial decay in the effects of rating history the longer a rating remains unchanged. This decay effect is stronger for downgrades and for ratings in the speculative category.     

The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

户口、迁移与居住分异——以武汉为例的实证研究

计划经济时期的中国城市居住分异程度很低.转型期间快速的城市化和住房的市场化导致了大量人口的迁移迁居,使原来相对均质的单位社区转变为多元的、异质的城市空间,各种新型社区如破旧的移民社区和富有的门禁社区也都应运而生.城市的居住分异日益明显,居住区位也日渐成为社会经济地位的标志.根据武汉市2000年人口普查0.1%按户抽样数据,将市区人口分为市内未迁居居民、市内迁居居民、市外永久移民和市外暂时移民,从户口、迁移迁居和居住的关系分析不同人群在城市中的居住区位及分异状况.与西方城市相比,武汉市区目前的居住分异和隔离程度不高,但各分区的居住隔离程度存在明显差异,特定人群在城市某些区位的分畀隔离程度已达到相当高的程度,各类人群也存在一定程度的孤立性.政府相关部门应对此予以重视.     

中国农村劳动力迁移影响因素研究——基于Probit模型的实证分析

农村劳动力迁移对于缩小城乡收入差距、促进中国经济增长具有非常重要的作用。本文通过中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据库的成人调查问卷2004和2006年的数据,采用probit模型定量分析了中国农村劳动力迁移的影响因素。本文的研究发现:婚姻状况、健康、娱乐偏好等变量对农村劳动力的迁移决策有比较显著的影响,而当前收入的影响并不明显。此外,家庭负担并不是迁移决策的影响因素,并且已婚女性劳动力倾向于和丈夫共同迁移,以上两个因素共同导致了农村的空巢老人问题。最后,促进农村劳动力迁移的最有效方法是提高农村劳动力的受教育水平,其中大学及大专学校教育最有效,其次是职业和技术学校教育。     

地权稳定与农业生产

本文以《农村土地承包法》在省一级层面的实施作为政策冲击,研究稳定的农村土地承包经营权对农业生产效率等的影响及其作用机制。主要研究结论如下:第一,稳定的农地承包经营权能够增强经营主体对未来的确定性预期,保障各方市场主体的合法权益,活跃土地流转并有效提升农业生产效率;第二,《农村土地承包法》的实施促进了农户转出而非转入土地,农业生产效率提升主要源自稳定产权的直接激励效应以及由此带来的资源配置效率改进,稳定的农地产权能够促进土地有效流转,优化农户农业生产与劳动配置决策;第三,地权稳定性改革有效缓解了因人口流出与区位劣势造成的农业生产效率损失,显著提高了农户的务工收入以及整体收入水平。本文研究结论表明,合理的制度设计能够提升农业生产效率,提高农村土地和劳动力资源的配置效率。清晰的产权设计、合理的预期管理是实现市场化资源配置的必要条件。     

Factor accumulation in Canada before the Great Depression: investment and immigration dynamics

The links between economic growth, investment and migration are explored to determine if one of the mobile factors of production, capital or labor, led the other to accumulate in Canada during several boom episodes over 1870 to 1927. The results of an econometric analysis, using time series techniques, suggest that rising per capita incomes led to increased domestic investment and net immigration, and that foreigners joined the investment booms after domestic residents invested in Canadian development first.

MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BRAZIL: EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS BASED ON THE SOLOW‐SWAN MODEL

The paper addresses the question of whether migration plays a role in the determination of the per capita incomes in sub‐regions of Brazil. In order to discuss this relationship, we slightly modified the Solow‐Swan model with migration to better resemble the Brazilian context. Based on this model, we determined theoretically five different possibilities for the spatial dynamics regarding net migration, human capital differentials between migrants and nonmigrants, and capital stock per effective worker. We applied this framework to census data and the microregions in Brazil were empirically classified in one or other of these possibilities with the multivariate technique of cluster analysis. Finally, we used econometric models with instrumental variables applied to panel data and observed a tendency of increase in the variability of per capita income due to migration.     

Urban Ecological Enclosures: Conservation Planning,Peri-urban Displacement,and Local State Formations in China

Across contemporary China, city governments are unevenly territorializing peri-urban villagers’ land and housing by creating new urban ecological conservation sites. I analyze this emerging form of what I call ‘ecological territorialization’ through three interrelated spatial practices: comprehensive urban–rural planning, peri-urban ‘ecological migration’, and the distribution of institutional responsibility for conservation site financing, construction and management. Detailing this triad of territorializing practices renews attention to the relationship between conservation classifications that justify state intervention, uneven displacements of people from rural land and housing, and site-specific capitalizations that collectively consolidate urban government control over rural spaces. These practices emerge stochastically as state, private, and semi-state institutions capitalize on conservation projects in the context of legally and constitutionally underdefined land use rights and ecological land designations. In the current post-socialist moment of urban ‘greening’, these practices are key to producing frontiers of land-based accumulation and extending local state control across the peri-urban fringe. Urban ecological enclosures not only remake city-level state power but also shape rural people's relationships to land, labor and housing.