个人工资水平、家庭迁移特征与农民工城市消费--留城意愿的调节和中介作用分析

农民工城市消费受到个人与家庭决策两方面的影响。本研究构建了包括个人工资水平、家庭迁移特征与留城意愿的农民工城市消费理论框架,结合5省3524名农民工的专项调研数据,探讨个人与家庭特征对农民工个人城市消费的影响,并深入探讨两类特征对农民工个人城市消费的作用机制和影响路径。研究结果显示:第一,农民工工资收入水平对其城市消费水平具有显著的正向作用,尤其是发展与享受型消费;第二,留城意愿对农民工城市消费水平也有显著的正向作用,但迁移家庭完整度对其消费没有直接影响,而是通过留城意愿间接地促进农民工的城市消费;第三,留城意愿在农民工工资收入水平与其城市消费之间起着正向调节作用,即农民工留城意愿越强,工资收入水平的提高对农民工城市消费的正向促进作用越大。     

"民工荒"现象的劳动经济学分析

文章首先简述“民工荒”现象，然后运用劳动经济学中有关理论对“民工荒”现象背后的真正原因做了深入分析，最后从三个层面提出了解决这一问题的对策建议。     

从"人口空间"解读城市:武汉的实例

从"人口空间"上系统解读一个城市为理解中国城市转型提供了一个新的视角,也是人文地理学格局与过程分析的重要组成部分.结合人口普查数据.利用GIS工具,以武汉作为实证时象,系统分析了城市人口迁移和分布的空间特征.试图从"人口空间"的视角解读武汉.研究发现:武汉人口的省外联系特征逐渐突出.人口的辐射地区以中部地区为主兼及四川...     

The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

中国的永久移民

中国的户口制度阻碍了农村居民向城市的迁移。然而,农村居民仍能通过接受较好的教育、提干或参军等方式获得城市户口。利用2002年的大样本调查,我们发现永久移民的数量大约为1亿,约占现今城市居民的20%。与留在农村的农民相比,永久移民的经济状况得到了很大的改善。成为永久移民的概率与父母教育水平、汉族身份、父母党员身份等正相关。永久移民的经济状况与获得户口时的年龄有关。较年轻时就获得户口的永久移民的收入要高于城市原住民,较晚获得户口的永久移民的收入则要低于城市原住民。尽管大部分永久移民成功地融入了城市生活,但那些通过非职业途径获得户口的永久移民,却远非如此。     

户口、迁移与居住分异——以武汉为例的实证研究

计划经济时期的中国城市居住分异程度很低.转型期间快速的城市化和住房的市场化导致了大量人口的迁移迁居,使原来相对均质的单位社区转变为多元的、异质的城市空间,各种新型社区如破旧的移民社区和富有的门禁社区也都应运而生.城市的居住分异日益明显,居住区位也日渐成为社会经济地位的标志.根据武汉市2000年人口普查0.1%按户抽样数据,将市区人口分为市内未迁居居民、市内迁居居民、市外永久移民和市外暂时移民,从户口、迁移迁居和居住的关系分析不同人群在城市中的居住区位及分异状况.与西方城市相比,武汉市区目前的居住分异和隔离程度不高,但各分区的居住隔离程度存在明显差异,特定人群在城市某些区位的分畀隔离程度已达到相当高的程度,各类人群也存在一定程度的孤立性.政府相关部门应对此予以重视.     

Choices between different off-farm employment sub-categories: An empirical analysis for Jiangxi Province, China

This paper analyzes the relative importance of four sub-categories of off-farm employment, and the factors driving participation of individuals in these sub-categories for three villages in Jiangxi Province. We find that migration is the most important type of off-farm employment, while agricultural wage employment is a minor activity. Migrant remittances are smaller than household incomes earned from self-employment and local non-farm employment. The results of a multinomial probit analysis explaining off-farm participation decisions show that presence of young children in a household restrains participation in migration, while the presence of elderly persons and a higher level of education stimulate migration. Local wage employment and self-employment are not affected by these factors. The gender bias in access to off-farm employment is largest for agricultural employment and local non-agricultural employment. Land scarcity stimulates participation in migration and local non-agricultural employment, while possibilities to rent land out to other farmers stimulate only migration. The paper ends with policy suggestions for promoting off-farm employment within the own region and for altering the criteria for land distribution to rural households.     

Assistance to poor households when income is not observed: targeted in-kind and in-cash transfers

Policymakers frequently design self-targeting programs or target poor areas to assist poor families when income is not observed. Self-targeting schemes take advantage of differences in participation costs in assistance programs across households. Geographic targeting assumes that transfers are solely determined by the region of residence: to receive the benefits, households not initially present in the targeted areas must relocate away from their original place of residence and live with the poor, which entails a cost that can also be interpreted as a participation cost in the assistance program. The paper shows that a combination of in-kind and in-cash transfers tied to the consumption of a publicly provided private good targeted to the poor becomes very useful when non-poor households have different participation costs. By distinguishing users and non-users of public facilities additional in-cash transfers can be directed to the poor more effectively. The paper demonstrates that the publicly provided good ends up being undersupplied, and the distortion becomes less important as participation costs rise. More importantly, it shows that this kind of redistributive program dominates a pure in-cash scheme.     

Rating Migrations: The Effect of History and Time

We examine the effect of rating history and the passage of time on the rating migration hazard for corporate debt issuers. Controlling for industry effects and the evolution of business and political cycles, the results consistently show that the next change of rating depends more strongly on rating history than it does on the current rating. However, there are significant interactions between the main effects of rating history and the duration of the current rating. The result is substantial decay in the effects of rating history the longer a rating remains unchanged. This decay effect is stronger for downgrades and for ratings in the speculative category.     

Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies

Almost all economic assessments of Brexit conclude that there would be significant losses for both the UK and the EU. This paper examines the driving forces behind these results. We consider the strong economic relationships between the UK and EU both at the sectoral and macroeconomic levels that are at risk from Brexit. We review fifteen studies that explore various Brexit scenarios (hard and soft) and explain why their different methodologies and assumptions yield different degrees of economic damage. Our review concludes that GDP losses for the UK from a hard Brexit range from 1.6% to 7.8%, while a soft Brexit would moderate the losses by roughly half. We also find that potential UK trade agreements with third countries could partially compensate for significant Brexit losses.