Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

"This article is a review of--and response to--a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical evidence regarding population forecast accuracy, the costs and benefits of disaggregation, the potential benefits of combining forecasts, criteria for evaluating projection models, and issues of economic efficiency in the production of population projections."     

Accounting irregularities,management compensation structure and information asymmetry

The discovery of accounting irregularities is an important negative event for a company. The restatement resulting from the irregularity represents an average of 364 per cent of net income for the 152‐firm sample and the irregularities are predominantly revenue enhancing. The irregularity firms exhibit both lower transparency and visibility compared to a matched sample of non‐irregularity firms. Furthermore, prior to the announcement, these firms experienced poorer operating performance and their executive compensation structure is found to be significantly more equity‐based. Therefore, firms that have greater opportunity and incentive are shown to be more likely to commit accounting irregularities.     

The effects of document language quality on consumer perceptions and intentions

This article establishes a link between language quality in the documentation accompanying a product and consumers' evaluations of, and behavioural intentions towards, both the product and the manufacturer. In a laboratory experiment, 116 participants assembled a product using assembly guides with different language quality levels. Results show that language quality affects document evaluation, which spills over to the evaluations of both the product and the manufacturer. Findings also indicate that the documentation accompanying a product is a vital extrinsic cue used by consumers to evaluate both the product and the manufacturer, which implies that these documents are secondary products that add value to the primary product. Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric identification of regression models containing a misclassified dichotomous regressor without instruments

We observe a dependent variable and some regressors, including a mismeasured binary regressor. We provide identification of the nonparametric regression model containing this misclassified dichotomous regressor. We obtain identification without parameterizations or instruments, by assuming the model error isn't skewed.     

Robustness of normal theory statistics in structural equation models*

A condition is given by which optimal normal theory methods, such as the maximum likelihood methods, are robust against violation of the normality assumption in a general linear structural equation model. Specifically, the estimators and the goodness of fit test are robust. The estimator is efficient within some defined class, and its standard errors can be obtained by a correction formula applied to the inverse of the information matrix. Some special models, like the factor analysis model and path models, are discussed in more detail. A method for evaluating the robustness condition is given.     

CFO's accounting talent,compensation and turnover

This paper builds on and contributes to the literature on Chief Financial Officer's (CFO) compensation and turnover. We contend that the accounting talent of CFOs can be measured by accounting errors that occur when CFOs implement accounting standards. We find (i) a positive association between the CFO's accounting talent and the CFO's compensation ex ante in the transition year; (ii) a positive association between the CFO's accounting talent and the CFO's bonus in the subsequent year (adoption year); and (iii) an inverse association between the CFO's accounting talent and CFO turnover in the subsequent year (adoption year).     

Fair Trade Community Café

This case concerns the real operations of a café in a small town in Nova Scotia, Canada. It is a second location of a theme restaurant, with the first location successfully operating for a number of years. The owner of the first location, and senior partner of the second café, is available for advice but does not participate in the day‐to‐day operations of the second location; there are two junior partners who run the business. The focus is on the financial statements generated by an external bookkeeping service. The income statement reports a significant loss, and some of the accounts on the balance sheet and income statement do not make sense for this type of business. Simple ratio and variance analysis provides information for students to determine where problems lie. The case presents a good opportunity for students who have a basic understanding of financial statements to read a set of real statements generated by a bookkeeping service. Not all transactions are logical for a small café, although the financial information is from a real café in operation. The case also contains industry information on the operations of small food and drinking businesses located in Nova Scotia.     

股权结构与财务重述研究

以2005年-2009年闻中国A股上市公司补充与更正报告中出现"会计差错更正"项目的公司为研究对象,以是否发生财务重述为因变量,采用配对样本分析方法考察了股权结构对财务重述的影响.结果发现,股权集中度越高,发生财务重述的概率越低;国有股比例越高,发生财务重述的概率越高;流通股比例越高,发生财务重述的概率越低;管理层持股比例与财务重述之间呈U型关系;而法人股以及机构投资者抑制财务重述的作用不明显.研究拓展了财务重述的内容,为监管部门防范财务重述、改进股权结构以及提高公司治理效率提供了经验证据.     

Garch effects on a test of cointegration

This article discusses the effects of GARCH type error processes on the use of the Engle and Granger cointegration test for two variables. Simulation results indicate that (nearly) integrated GARCH processes, as well as GARCH processes that are not covariance stationary, change the critical values. An application to testing for cointegration between spot and futures prices illustrates the practical relevance of using the appropriate critical values.     

Hedging derivatives with model error

The current derivatives pricing technology enables users to hedge derivatives with the underlying asset or any other traded derivative. In theory, there is no reason to prefer one hedging instrument to another. However, given model errors, this is not true. Imposing some simple assumptions on the structure of model errors, this paper shows that to maximize hedging accuracy, there is an ordering to the hedging instruments utilized. Holding constant market illiquidities, one should always hedge first with ‘like’ derivatives, next with derivatives one layer down the hierarchy of derivatives, and lastly using the underlying.