中国对外直接投资的母国碳排放效应研究——基于2003～2011年省级面板数据

选用2003~2011年我国30个省的面板数据,基于联立方程组模型,考察了中国对外直接投资(outward foreign direct investment,OFDI)对本国CO2排放量的影响。研究表明:我国对外直接投资的增加将会给本国带来正的规模效应、产业结构效应以及负的技术效应。综合三大效应的结果显示,我国加大对外直接投资,增加了国内的CO2排放量。数据表明,我国的对外直接投资每增加1%,国内CO2排放量将会增加0.5009%,其主要原因在于具有减排作用的技术效应远低于其余两大效应,据此提出了增加技术寻求型直接投资和调整产业结构的政策建议。     

维格列汀与二甲双胍合用治疗糖尿病的药物经济学研究

目的比较维格列汀、吡格列酮、格列美脲分别与二甲双胍合用治疗2型糖尿病时的效果、成本及成本-效果。方法运用Markov模型对三种治疗方案的终身治疗成本及效用（期望寿命、质量调整寿命年）进行经济学评价,通过文献资料和专家问卷咨询获得临床、生命质量、并发症年治疗成本等数据,进行敏感度分析。结果维格列汀、吡格列酮、格列美脲分别与二甲双胍合用治疗2型糖尿病分别延长11.02、10.96、10.90个质量调整生命年,而生命周期中三种治疗方案的治疗费用分别为124892元、134135元、126010元。敏感度分析证明了结果的可靠性。结论与吡格列酮、格列美脲合并二甲双胍质量相比,维格列汀合并二甲双胍治疗获得的健康效果更好,而治疗成本更低。     

五黄养阴颗粒治疗2型糖尿病合并脂代谢异常临床研究

目的观察五黄养阴颗粒治疗2型糖尿病合并脂代谢异常的临床疗效。方法选择458例门诊患者随机分为两组,A组给予五黄养阴颗粒,B组给予糖脉康。比较两组患者治疗前后血糖疗效。结果两组患者在0周与8周时空腹血糖值比较,A组患者血糖、糖化血红蛋白、血脂及中医证候疗效指标均优于B组。结论五黄养阴颗粒治疗2型糖尿病合并脂代谢异常的临床疗效可靠,且未发现不良反应。     

Non‐Parametric Modelling of CO2 Emission Quota

Dutch glasshouse firms are facing the introduction of a system of tradable CO₂ emission quotas. This paper employs a non‐parametric method for modelling tradable CO₂ emissions of Dutch glasshouse firms. The method is capable of generating shifts in CO₂ emissions across the sample of firms. Moreover, changes in volumes of outputs produced and inputs used are computed. Results show that firms using a conventional heating technology will be net purchasers of CO₂ emissions, whereas firms using more advanced heating technologies will sell part of their emission quota.     

森林碳汇:后京都时代减排的重要途径

分析指出森林碳汇较其他减排措施具有潜力大、易操作、见效快、成本低、对经济增长影响小、居民福利高的独特优越性,必将受到国家气候变化应对措施选择的青睐。同时指出,森林碳汇不但包括换取排放中的造林和再造林的碳汇项目,而且包括抵消排放中的增加的森林碳库。分析国际气候变化谈判的焦点难点,指出森林碳汇必将成为后京都时代减排的重要途径之一。     

E-Shopping Patterns of Chinese and US Millennials

A conceptually based taxonomy of 22 distinct forms of e-shopping vehicles is proposed. A modification of the UTAUT and UTAUT2 models is introduced to explain how vehicles are interrelated in regard to consumer reliance upon them for their e-purchasing. A survey of over 1,000 millennial university students, 697 Chinese and 306 US, revealed strong support in both samples for the hypothesized six dimensional pattern underlying consumer vehicular reliance. Further, differences between Chinese and US samples lay not in the nature of the dimensions, but rather in the strength of reliance upon each dimension. Thus, the study demonstrates the utility of the concept/measure of shopper vehicular reliance, VPR (Vehicle Purchasing Reliance) for both practitioners and scientists. In cross-national comparisons, observed differences between samples in strength of reliance supported four of five hypotheses predicated on previously established national distinctions a) in trust and b) in the cultural value of individualism-collectivism.     

Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo

The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO₂ emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.     

Off‐farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off‐farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long‐term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off‐farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off‐farm work as a long‐term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short‐term adjustments in off‐farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off‐farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off‐farm participation.     

林业的历史性转变与碳交换机制的建立

地球大气CO2含量上升是导致地球水、气、热循环失常以及生物多样性减少的主要原因。全球对林业的主要生态需求是发挥森林减少大气CO2含量的功能。现在人们公认的许多林业理念是偏颇的,需要纠正。地球生态危机说明CO2排放空间是稀缺资源,发展的结果必然导致在全球分配CO2排放权,从而产生CO2排放权交易、碳汇产权化、生态服务有形化、有偿化。     

The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry

The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defense industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defense and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defense and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defense and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritize, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.