Testing for negativity in a demand system: A Bayesian approach

The paper introduces Bayesian inference into a demand model. This allows us to test for the negativity condition of the substitution matrix which is difficult to handle directly in the traditional approach. To illustrate the Bayesian inference procedures, we estimate the Rotterdam model and test the demand properties using Japanese data. The empirical results show the importance of specifically considering negativity in demand analysis. First version received: September 1997/final version received: February 1998     

基于物联网技术平台的O2O商业模式研究

在国家大力推进产业结构调整、信息化的压力下,物联网技术和O2O商业模式作为信息时代的新型生产力,在国内的普及率并不高。本文运用案例分析的方法通过研究大学生创业项目引入O2O商业模式的概念,并与物联网技术有机结合,把握两者之间优势互补的关系,提出两者创新应用,同时从商业模式构成要素的角度对该模式进行系统、深入分析,为中国现代农业信息化建设和结构调整提供了新思路。     

Thriving in the New Normal: The HR Microfoundations of Capabilities for Business Model Innovation. An Integrated Literature Review

Firms need to respond to the increasing competition and change of the current New Normal environment by being more innovative, and especially in developing new business models. This paper seeks to explore how microfoundations, particularly with respect to human resource management, play a key role in facilitating innovation in business models through the development of key needed capabilities. Four themes are identified with respect to business model innovation (BMI) in the New Normal: BMI as an enabler to create and operate across industries and product-markets; BMI as a mechanism for firms to better navigate changing institutional landscapes; BMI as giving rise to business model portfolios; and concurrent and cumulative innovations that can lead to BMI. This paper also develops a conceptual framework that presents a synoptic view of the five essential capabilities for BMI, which include analogical reasoning, sensemaking, dynamic capabilities, organisational ambidexterity, and organisational learning. Finally, it is shown how the microfoundations of a bespoke, development-oriented BMI HR architecture can support the advancement of these capabilities and thus contribute to the strategic HR literature.     

经济转型下的外商直接投资、国内资本与经济增长——基于中国时间序列数据的计量检验与实证分析

经济转型背景下,中国经济持续增长的一个重要原因是引入外商直接投资。本文对1985年-2010年中国外商直接投资、国内投资与经济增长的总量时间序列数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:FDI与国内资本对我国的经济增长的影响显著,都是GDP的格兰杰原因,与经济增长存在长期均衡关系;但FDI对经济增长的影响小于国内资本,并且FDI与国内资本还存在相互挤入效应。     

Business Cycles Around the Globe: Some Key Facts

We document massive heterogeneity in basic cyclical patterns within groups of developed and emerging market economies. While we detect marked differences between developed and emerging countries as well, the distributions of key business cycle statistics tend to overlap across different country groups.     

我国水资源可持续利用能力评价

选取31个省级单位最新数据,提炼出7大类共计25项反映水资源可持续利用的评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法和DEA模型评价了我国水资源可持续利用的能力。研究结果表明:我国近74.2%的省份水资源可持续利用能力欠佳,呈阶梯状分布,这主要是由于水资源与社会经济、水环境容量、农业灌溉、城市发展、生态保护与可持续利用的不协整所导致的,但仍有很大的发展潜力。     

Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

China’s monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules

Two monetary policy rules, the money supply (quantity) rule and interest rate (price) rule, are explored for China in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The empirical results seem to indicate that the price rule is likely to be more effective in managing the macroeconomy than the quantity rule, favoring the government’s intention of liberalizing interest rates and making a more active use of the price instrument. Moreover, the economy would have experienced less fluctuations had interest rate responded more aggressively to inflation.     

油价冲击、货币政策调整与产出波动——基于中国的经验证据

本文基于我国2001-2010年宏观经济月度数据,采用SVAR模型分析了国际油价波动时,央行货币政策在排除回应油价干扰与未排除干扰下的反应差异及油价波动对产出的影响。研究发现,在排除货币政策回应油价波动干扰后,通过脉冲响应函数反映的油价波动对产出的短期负面影响消失。方差分解结果显示,长期内产出波动由油价冲击和货币政策解释的比例分别为5716%和32480%,比排除干扰前分别下降了2569%和4560%。这说明我国油价冲击带来的经济衰退主要是因为货币政策及其回应油价冲击紧缩所致。此外,面对油价的短期冲击,CPI指数并未随着生产者购进价格指数上升而上升,产出也未发生明显的衰减;但在较长时间内,油价上升会因为相对价格的改变,而影响CPI水平和货币政策,从而对产出产生显著的负面影响。     

Collaboration and innovation: An empirical study of Indian technological enterprises

In 2010, the Indian government declared 2010–2020 to be the ‘Decade of Innovation’ and established the State Innovation Councils and Sectoral Innovation Councils to encourage and facilitate innovation by technological firms. In this paper, we study the relationship between collaboration and innovation in a cross‐section of Indian firms, paying particular attention to the impact of the innovation councils. Our results suggest that domestic collaborations have an important impact on firm innovation, as do the innovation councils, but that the impact of the councils is less for firms that collaborate.