Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985–2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that the mere existence of fiscal rules correlates with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering the strength of rules through a continuous index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are generally robust and not affected by weak instrument problems.     

The determinants of financial structure: How to explain the “paradox of insolvency and debt” among SMEs in Cameroon?

The paradox of insolvent enterprises regularly contracting new debts is the motivation behind this research. Statistical tests carried out on a sample of 62 manufacturing firms show that the financial behaviour of these enterprises is mainly explained by two factors: the rate of asset immobilization and the manager's social capital. The impact of the first factor is due to the asset capacity to serve guarantees, and the impact of the second is inherent to the possibility that enables relational networks to get around norms or to reach informal circuits and alternative sources of financing. The latter aspect is the beginning of the answer to the insolvency and indebtedness paradox. This result denotes the coexistence of two parallel dimensions in the Cameroon business environment. Besides the formal sphere, where the lack of confidence and readability between the actors pushes financial backers to excesses of prudence, subsists an informal universe where confidence, loyalty and solidarity seem to cement business relationships. However, the economic rationality of actors in these networks remains problematic.     

Economic Impacts of Improved Connectivity for ASEAN: An Application of the Geographical Simulation Model

We compare the prioritized projects of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) and the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) by utilizing the Institute of Developing Economies/Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Geographical Simulation Model. The prioritized projects of the MPAC mainly focus on specific hard or soft infrastructure projects connecting one remote area of an ASEAN member state to another and thus fail to capture the full potential of the infrastructure because of neglected important links within a state. On the other hand, the CADP emphasizes the importance of economic corridors or linkages between a large cluster and another cluster. Our simulation analysis shows that CADP projects will result in an addition to gross domestic product (GDP) of $US 1544bn over the period from 2021 to 2030 (in 2010 dollars) or an impact on ASEAN countries that is 12 times larger than MPAC projects. The results strongly suggest that the CADP projects should be adopted and implemented to fully realize the potential economic growth of the ASEAN countries. Moreover, the CADP will contribute more to narrowing the development gaps among the ASEAN countries than MPAC prioritized projects.     

Complex stylized facts of the Mexican economy: a hirschmanian perspective (to attack the “fear of growing”, more and better)

We elaborate some complex stylized facts related to the Mexican economy. The analyzed period runs from 1960 to 2013 with selected subperiods. Our main findings are: 1) there are involuntary idle capacities in the manufacturing industries; 2) the growth of the Mexican economy is not balanced but unbalanced; 3) there is an inflation-free environment. This fact is consistent with the previous ones; 4) there is a mixed of efficient and inefficient sequences of investment; 5) the stimulus of manufacturing exports on macroeconomic performance has been offset by its imports; 6) the deficits in manufacturing balance and in the current account have been financed without difficulty. Of course, this financing capacity constitutes a second best condition; 7) according to a backward linkages analysis, the towing capacity of manufacturing sector over the Mexican economy would be a larger one if the manufacturing imports penetration had not been so intense since the trade liberalization; and 8) the size of the positive effect of the manufacturing sector on the economy and on the non-manufacturing sectors diminished since the early eighties. Our complex stylized facts highlight the need for an upgrading of the current economic policies.     

Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis

We estimate panel vector autoregressions to analyze the highly disputed relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect of debt on growth, even for higher levels of debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth on debt, which explains the negative correlation.     

Measuring US sectoral shocks in the world input–output network

I measure the importance of sectoral shocks in US aggregate output by using the World Input–Output Table (WIOT). The WIOT allows me to correct potential sub-graph bias in previous literature, caused by using only the US industrial production input–output table. I report results from three closely related models to show how sensitive the analyses are to different specifications. The estimates vary from 10% to 45%.     

Post-privatization speed of state ownership relinquishment: Determinants and influence on firm performance

This study investigates the potential determinants of speed of state ownership relinquishment, measured by the annual decrease in the percentage of ownership by the government, as well as its impact on corporate performance. Several country- and firm-level determinants affecting the speed of the government ownership withdrawal are documented. Likewise, the initial positive relation between the speed of government ownership relinquishment and performance is reported. However, beyond a certain level, if the governments increase the annual percentage of ownership relinquishment, the performance could be inferior. In other words, a nonlinear relation with an inverted U-shape is detected.     

China's One‐Child Policy: Some Unintended Consequences

This paper gives a brief overview of China's family planning policy which, although recently relaxed, still controls a large swath of the population. Unofficially known as the ‘one‐child policy’, it resulted from the social strife of the 1970s coupled with a Malthusian pessimism concerning the capability of the still largely closed and isolated Chinese economy to care for itself. We discuss the motivations for the policy, the unfortunate demographic future that it will create, and some policy reforms that can be undertaken today.     

Effects of hiring former employees of multinationals in the absorptive capacity of local firms

The attraction of foreign direct investment seeks, among other things, to increase the productivity of local companies through knowledge spillovers. However, the empirical evidence in this regard is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of the local companies. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of former employees of multinational corporations as employees of local companies, on the absorptive capacity of said companies. The study was done in Costa Rica, a country known for its successful strategy in the subject matter. The data come from a survey applied to 1167 companies by the Observatorio Costarricense de las Pymes in 2011. It was found that the hiring of former employees of multinational corporations by local companies has a positive effect on the index of absorptive capacity of companies in all productive sectors. Specifically, this hiring of former employees increases the index of absorptive capacity by nine percentage points, with differences by sector and the size of the company.