International trade and finance: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-1930

Do international trade and finance flow together? In a variety of theoretical models, trade and finance can be shown to have the potential to be substitutes or complements, so the matter must be resolved empirically. We study trade and financial flows from the United Kingdom from 1870 to 1913 and the United States in the interwar years. These were the two major capital exporters and key financial centers in each era. We find that trade and finance were robustly correlated for each case. We consider simultaneity issues. We also discuss evidence from the British Empire which casts doubt on the idea that trade is a punishment device in the event of a default.     

MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND INEQUALITY: BRAZIL, 1983–94

We examine how poor macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of high rates of inflation, affected earnings inequality in the 1980s and early 1990s in Brazil. The results, based initially on aggregate time series, and then on sub‐national panel time‐series data and analysis, show that the extreme inflation, combined with an imperfect process of financial adaptation and incomplete indexation coverage, had a regressive and significant impact on inequality. The implication of the results is that sound macroeconomic policies, which keep inflation low and stable in the long run, should be a necessary first step of any policy package implemented to alleviate inequality in Brazil.     

DYNAMIC OUTPUT RESPONSE REVISITED: THE INDIAN CASH CROPS

Diverse instruments have been used to encourage developing agriculture. In the process, billions of dollars have been spent on providing incentives to peasants. Given scarce resources, an important concern has been the issue of what policy instruments to emphasize. In this regard, useful policy information can be gleaned from the role of expected profits (revenue and input prices), assets (irrigation and infrastructure), and relevant risks, in evoking peasant response. Using panel data for the period 1967/1968 to 1999/2000 pertaining to seven major Indian cash crops cultivated across 14 major states, we find strong evidence of a differential producer response in the post‐liberalization phase, although the important variables per se are much the same. Our results suggest that the preferred policy ought to emphasize availability of irrigation, affordable fertilizer, and rural infrastructure, rather than incessant increases in output prices.     

HUMAN CAPITAL INEQUALITY AND THE KUZNETS CURVE

This paper develops a Mincerian measure of human capital distribution and applies it to evaluate national and global human capital inequality and compare them with education inequality measures. It is shown that using education inequality as a proxy of human capital inequality is problematic due to the nonmonotonic relationship between them. We find that the inconsistent evidence on education and human capital Kuznets curves in the literature is due to the use of different inequality measures. In particular, human capital Kuznets curves are evident when relative inequality measures are used, whereas education Kuznets curves are found when absolute inequality measures are used. It is also observed that while global education inequality has been declining over the past four decades, global human capital inequality remains largely steady, as the decrease in between‐country human capital inequality is largely balanced by the increase in within‐country human capital inequality.     

The Asymmetric path of Economic Long Waves

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the pattern and behavior of Economic Long Waves over time, using the long-wave chronologies of two driving economies, the USA and the UK. The statistical evidence seems in general to support the hypothesis that Long Waves are not symmetric and their regularity is based on longer periods of upwave than downwave (contraction-skewed), which implies a negative asymmetric path of these waves over time.     

Efficiency and equity impacts of rural land rental restrictions: Evidence from India

Recognition of the potentially deleterious implications of inequality in opportunity originating in a skewed asset distribution has spawned considerable interest in land reforms. However, little attention has been devoted to the fact that, in the longer-term, the measures used to implement land reforms, especially rental restrictions, could negatively affect productivity. Use of state level data on rental restrictions, together with a nationally representative survey from India suggests that, contrary to original intentions, rental restrictions negatively affect productivity and equity by reducing scope for efficiency-enhancing rental transactions that benefit poor producers. Simulations suggest that, by doubling the number of producers with access to land through rental, from about 15 million currently, liberalization of rental markets could have far-reaching impacts.     

Remedial Education with Incentivized Peer‐Tutoring: Evidence from Migrant Children Schools in China

This paper evaluates the impact of a remedial education program performed in two Chinese migrant children schools. The program used a conditional cash transfer contract to encourage peer tutors to help their underperforming classmates. Incentivized peer‐tutoring significantly improved the academic performance of the underperforming tutees over a semester. The impact persisted in the second semester when the intervention was removed. Our results suggest that nongovernment organizations and government agencies can increase their capacity of remedying education by incorporating incentivized peer‐tutoring into their existing merit‐based scholarship and conditional cash transfer programs.     

EVALUATION OF CONTINGENT REPAYMENTS IN MICROFINANCE: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL DISASTER IN BANGLADESH

Frequent and strictly scheduled repayments and savings in microfinance often deteriorate the liquidity of members in the face of negative shocks. Previous articles suggest the introduction of a contingent repayment system that allows such members to be rescheduled, but the unavailability of a suitable dataset makes it difficult to examine how it would actually work. This study is one of the first to evaluate the impact of this repayment system on household livelihood. In employing a unique dataset from Bangladesh, I show that rescheduling reduces the possibility of binding credit constraints and borrowing from moneylenders, and may also reduce transitory poverty. However, short‐term rescheduling has insignificant effects. Indebted members with less liquid assets are more likely to be rescheduled.     

The Incentive Effects of Inequality: An Experimental Investigation

The effect of inequality on economic growth and efficiency is often debated. Our study investigates a behavioral phenomenon through which inequality might have adverse effects on economic growth. In particular we investigate whether or not individuals exhibit a discouragement effect in the face of inequality that leads to lower work effort. If such an effect exists, it provides a mechanism for converting even idiosyncratic inequality into sustained inequality with adverse consequences for the individuals being affected by the inequality and the economy as a whole. We investigate this phenomenon using an economic experiment to allow us to cleanly vary the nature of inequality and to allow us to directly observe several characteristics of the workers. We find robust support for the existence of a discouragement effect lending credibility to the claims that such an effect would exist in external situations among workers confronted with disadvantageous inequality.