东北地区粮食型农户家庭农场经营风险认知的影响因素分析

［目的］东北地区作为维护国家粮食安全的“压舱石”,准确而系统地掌握东北地区粮食型农户家庭农场经营风险认知水平,为政府部门精准实施粮食型农户家庭农场配套扶持政策提供参考。［方法］文章利用黑龙江、吉林、辽宁3省301个粮食型农户家庭农场调研数据,运用交叉列表和多元有序logit模型分析家庭农场经营风险认知水平及其影响因素。［结果］（1）6312%的粮食型家庭农场有一定风险认知能力,土地经营面积在333~1333hm2（50~200亩）与1333~3333hm2（200~500亩）的家庭农场风险认知处于中等水平, 3333hm2（500亩）以上家庭农场经营风险认知低; （2）玉米种植型家庭农场风险认知水平高于水稻种植型家庭农场; （3）年龄、是否村干部、劳动力数量、土地经营规模、是否有自然灾害、农产品市场价格波动、是否“三品一标”认证、金融支持、农推人员技术指导和新型经营主体间合作稳定对东北地区粮食型农户家庭农场经营风险认知有影响。［结论］应培养家庭农场主个人特质,鼓励支农惠农政策向规模适度的家庭农场倾斜,从流程入手提高家庭农场风险防范能力。     

The geographical efficiency of education and research: The ranking of U.S. universities

This paper proposes to study the American efficiency of educational diffusion and research productivity following two distinctions: urban vs. rural areas and public vs. private universities. Following this geographical consideration, knowledge diffusion seems to be homogeneous over the American territory, whereas research productivity is more heterogeneous: American research efficiency decreased of 7% points, due to some rural university localizations. Universities in urban areas favor educational quality through high student selection criteria, contrary to those located in more rural areas. Third, public universities present higher educational efficiency, in favoring educational quality over research productivity: the lesser research efficiency of public institutions comes from difficulties in the management of several campuses, by comparison with the private institutions which are all single-campus.     

Capitalisation of R&D and the informativeness of stock prices: Pre- and post-IFRS evidence

We examine whether requiring (IFRS) versus allowing (UK GAAP) conditional capitalisation of development expenditure affects the extent to which capitalisation conveys more information about future earnings, relative to expensing. We show that capitalisation results in current returns incorporating more future earnings information than expensing under UK GAAP but not under IFRS. i.e., the amount of information incorporated into market prices of capitalisers is the same as that from firms expensing R&D under IFRS. This result holds irrespective of a firm’s earnings management incentives or strength of corporate governance for the period under IFRS. We argue that this is because investors experience greater uncertainty regarding the realisation of future economic benefits associated with the development costs capitalised in the post-IFRS period. Consistent with this, we do find a positive association between capitalised R&D and future earnings variability in the post-IFRS period only, as well as short-term positive abnormal returns for capitalisers relative to expensers in the pre-IFRS period only. Overall, these findings suggest that when moving away from a standard that offers an overt option to capitalise or expense, capitalisation comes with greater uncertainty, which is resolved only in the long term.     

Re‐Examining the Role of Structural Change and Nonlinearities in a Phillips Curve Model for South Africa

Although studies generally find evidence of a Phillips curve‐type relationship in South Africa, uncertainty remains about the relevance of the model over a relatively long sample period, and whether conventional output gap measures are suitable proxies for demand pressure. This paper reviews research which shows that the Phillips curve model prevails over an extended sample, provided that the benchmark specifications include major structural changes in the balance‐of‐payments and labour market, and account for shifts in the root causes of inflation. When this is done, a linear specification with an output gap in levels correctly predicts the non‐trended inflation pattern over the period 1971(Q1)–1984(Q4), whereas a piecewise concave curve with an output gap in growth rates accurately forecasts the decelerating inflation pattern during 1986(Q1)–2001(Q2). A novel feature of the concave model is that it remains statistically robust and structurally stable when it is estimated until 2015(Q4). The concave model imparts a disinflationary bias, which suggests that monetary policy should be more expansionary during downswing phases of the business cycle and neutral during upswing phases. The analysis also considers how the shape of the Phillips curve might change if the balance‐of‐payments constraint on demand is relaxed in a significant way.     

Social capital and payout policies

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between regional social capital and corporate payout policies. Using a large sample of US data, we find a positive relationship between regional social capital and both the likelihood and the amount of cash dividend payouts. However, we find that social capital has no bearing on the likelihood and amount of stock repurchases. The results from additional analyses show that the relationship between social capital and dividends is more pronounced for less geographically dispersed firms. We also find that the network component of social capital has a greater effect on dividends than the social norm component. Our results are robust to alternative specifications of dividends and social capital and to the use of a two-stage least squares (2SLS) analysis to alleviate endogeneity concerns. Overall, we document that regional social capital plays an important role in influencing cash dividend payout policies.     

Do anti-bribery laws reduce the cost of equity? Evidence from the UK Bribery Act 2010

We examine the impact of the UK Bribery Act 2010 on the implied cost of equity. We find a significant reduction in the cost of equity amongst UK firms with high bribery exposure after the passage of the Bribery Act. We further show that the Bribery Act improves internal control systems and increases stock liquidity of firms with high bribery exposure. Our results suggest that more stringent anti-bribery regulations are not always bad for the firm.     

Economic analysis of spillover effects of an integrated pest management (IPM) strategy for suppression of mango fruit fly in Kenya

The International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe) recently developed and disseminated an integrated pest management (IPM) strategy to suppress the invasive oriental fruit fly species Bactrocera dorsalis in mango-growing communities in Africa. While the economic benefits of the strategy in mango production have been established, the cross-commodity benefits have not been assessed, despite evidence of the target fruit fly species’ effect on a wide range of cultivated host crops. Using propensity score matching, we analysed data on 371 households obtained from a survey of an icipe project in Kenya and sought to determine whether applying an IPM strategy for fruit fly had a spillover effect on gross margins. We focused on four alternative cultivated hosts of B. dorsalis, namely avocado, pawpaw, citrus and banana. We found positive and significant cross-commodity spillover effects in respect of employing the IPM strategy for fruit fly targeting pawpaw and citrus, suggesting a wide scope for IPM investment in Kenya and other fruit-producing regions in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Technology,education, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines whether telecommunications infrastructure promotes economic growth in countries with better access to education compared to those with less access. Using a panel of 45 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1993 to 2015, the results using the fixed-effects, two-step feasible efficient generalized method of moments estimator indicate that in countries with better access to education, the Internet contributes to economic growth, while mobile phones do not seem to do so. These results suggest that while education is regarded as pivotal for the Internet, it seems to be irrelevant for mobile phone usage.     

Research and development and trade policies for product innovation in the presence of foreign competition

This paper examines two policy instruments — a matching grant and import tariffs — for encouraging research and development (R&D) in product innovation by a domestic firm when it faces foreign competition. We do so by developing a theoretical model of product innovation where R&D effort is endogenous and its outcome uncertain. We examine the effects of a reduction in import tariffs on private expenditure on R&D, on public support for such R&D, and on total R&D expenditure. We find that in response to a reduction in import tariffs, the domestic firm always reduces its private R&D investments, but the total level of R&D expenditure (i.e., including public support) might go up depending on the level of tariffs. In particular, we find that it will go up if the initial level of tariff is higher than a critical level. When tariff is endogenous, we find that the socially optimal level of tariffs is positive. One finding that is of particular interest is that supporting private attempts to product innovate in the form of a matching grant program leads to a socially optimal level of product R&D.