Socioeconomic Changes and the Decline in Poverty: A View from Three Villages in the Philippines, 1985–1997*

The present paper examines socioeconomic changes and decline in rural poverty using a panel dataset collected in the Philippine villages in 1985, 1993 and 1997. The most important finding is the transition of the rural economy away from a regime of low nonfarm income to a regime of high nonfarm income accompanied by a marked decline in poverty. The relative contribution of access to land on rural poverty reduction declined, whereas the relative contribution of human capital, more importantly represented by college schooling, increased over time.     

Order preserving functions and generalized convexity

In order to better understand the monotonicity properties which characterize the gradient of pseudoconvex and quasi convex funzions, psedomonotonicity and quasi monotonicity can be introduced. A quite different approach is proposed in this paper, by defining new order relations, whose preservation leads precisely to several kinds of pseudoconvexity and quasi convexity. Some general properties of order preservation are proved; they are useful to state necessary and sufficient conditions of monotonicity for particular orders related with generalized convexity.     

Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model*

Regression coefficients are interpreted by a counterfactual experiment. For simultaneous equations this experiment can be implemented if the coefficients are identified, and throws some light on the role of instruments and the method of indirect least squares. This paper discusses another counterfactual experiment in the vector autoregressive model in order to interpret the coefficients of an identified cointegrating relation. The dynamics of the model is used to implement a long‐run change by changing the current values. The counterfactual experiment can be conducted precisely when the cointegrating relation is identified.     

Characteristics of growth and limitations in electronics

Since its origin about 75 years ago, electronics has grown faster than any other major engineering discipline. Analysis of the essential characteristics of electronics leads to the conclusion that the normal growth-limiting mechanisms are not operative in this area. The commitment of electronics to information handling is stipulated and it is concluded that electronic information processing is a new milestone in a field that is vital for human survival and that is as old as mankind. Though growth in electronics is open-ended, as in other engineering branches, developments within the field are subject to recognizable constraints. These constraints are identified and classified. Most of them turn out to be relative and sliding with the progress of time. The consequences of changing patterns of constraints are illustrated on past developments and their possible impact on future trends is brought forward.     

Incorrect Inferences When Using Residuals as Dependent Variables

We analyze a procedure common in empirical accounting and finance research where researchers use ordinary least squares to decompose a dependent variable into its predicted and residual components and use the residuals as the dependent variable in a second regression. This two‐step procedure is used to examine determinants of constructs such as discretionary accruals, real activities management, discretionary book‐tax differences, and abnormal investment. We show that the typical implementation of this procedure generates biased coefficients and standard errors that can lead to incorrect inferences, with both Type I and Type II errors. We further show that the magnitude of the bias in coefficients and standard errors is a function of the correlations between model regressors. We illustrate the potential magnitude of the bias in accounting research in four commonly used settings. Our results indicate significant bias in many of these settings. We offer three solutions to avoid the bias.     

The Information Content of Short Selling Around Close Supply Chain Relationships

Close supply chain relationships are sometimes detrimental to the partnering firms, and short sellers recognize this before the rest of the market. Suppliers and customers that are in linked, close supply chain relationships have higher short interest on average. Further, higher short interest increases the likelihood of large, linked customers reporting negative earnings surprises, whereas suppliers with high short interest are more likely to report negative earnings surprises, irrespective of the supply chain structure. Short selling is informative to capital markets because these suboptimal relationships eventually lead to dependent suppliers being delisted from a stock exchange for financial distress reasons.     

Enforceability of non-compete covenants,discretionary investments,and financial reporting practices: Evidence from a natural experiment

Non-compete covenants are widely used in employment contracts to promote employee stability. Using legal amendments of non-compete enforceability as a natural experiment, we find that as non-compete enforceability increases, firms display an increased likelihood of meeting short-term earnings benchmarks, lower discretionary expenditures, and declining future performance. These effects are more pronounced when CEOs have lower ability or shorter tenures, and when firms have more growth opportunities or operate in localized industries. Our results suggest that managers actively adapt investment and financial reporting practices to the changing environment that affects their contractual relations with firms.     

Durable Goods,Investment Shocks,and the Comovement Problem

Sticky‐price models suggest that capital investment shocks are an important driver of business cycle fluctuations. Despite quantitative importance in explaining business cycles, a comovement problem emerges because the shocks generate intertemporal substitution effects away from consumption toward investment. This paper resolves the problem by extending the standard sticky‐price model to a two‐sector model with consumer durable services. When durable goods are used as investment in capital and consumer durables, positive capital investment shocks also generate intratemporal substitution effects away from consumer durable services toward nondurable consumption that dominates intertemporal effects. Consequently, consumption increases, and the comovement problem is resolved.