A Real Effects Perspective to Accounting Measurement and Disclosure: Implications and Insights for Future Research

Accounting measurement and disclosure rules have a significant impact on the real decisions that firms make. In this essay, we provide an analytical framework to illustrate how such real effects arise. Using this framework, we examine three specific measurement issues that remain controversial: (1) How does the measurement of investments affect a firm's investment efficiency? (2) How does the measurement and disclosure of a firm's derivative transactions affect a firm's choice of intrinsic risk exposures, risk management strategy, and the incentive to speculate? (3) How could marking‐to‐market the asset portfolios of financial institutions generate procyclical real effects? We draw upon these real effects studies to generate sharper and novel insights that we believe are useful not only for the development of accounting standards, but also for guiding future empirical research.     

Motivating high‐impact innovation: Evidence from managerial compensation contracts

We investigate the relationship between Chief Executive Officer (CEO) compensation and firm innovation and find that long‐term incentives in the form of options, especially unvested options, and protection from managerial termination in the form of golden parachutes are positively related to corporate innovation, and particularly to high‐impact, exploratory (new knowledge creation) invention. Conversely, non‐equity pay has a detrimental effect on the input, output and impact of innovation. Tests using the passage of an option expensing regulation (FAS 123R) as an exogenous shock to option compensation suggest a causal interpretation for the link between long‐term pay incentives, patents and citations. Furthermore, we find that the decline in option pay following the implementation of FAS 123R has led to a significant reduction in exploratory innovation and therefore had a detrimental effect on innovation output. Overall, our findings support the idea that compensation contracts that protect from early project failure and incentivize long‐term commitment are more suitable for inducing high‐impact corporate innovation.     

Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource‐Rich Economies

The central bank of a commodity‐exporting small open economy faces the traditional trade‐off between domestic inflation and output gap. The commodity sector introduces a terms‐of‐trade inefficiency that gives rise to an endogenous cost‐push shock, changes the target level for output, reduces the slope of the Phillips curve, and increases the importance of stabilizing the output gap. Optimal monetary policy calls for a reduction of the interest rate following a drop in the oil price. In contrast, a central bank with a mandate to stabilize consumer price inflation raises interest rates to limit the inflationary impact of an exchange rate depreciation.     

Institutional Quality and CO2 Emission–Trade Relations: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

This paper examines the roles of trade, institutional quality and their interactions in explaining carbon dioxide emissions in a panel sample of 40 Sub‐Sahara African countries using the system generalised method of moments. We find that institutional reforms are unequivocally environmental improving. Meanwhile, the impacts of trade on the environment tend to depend on the institutional setting of a country. More specifically, trade openness is harmful to the environment in countries with low institutional quality and beneficial to the environment in countries with high institutional quality. This means that institutional reforms are a perquisite for the countries with low institutional quality to actualise the beneficial environment effect of trade. As for the countries with adequate institutional quality, trade and institutions are reinforcing each other in bringing down pollution. From these results, we conclude that trade openness implemented in a sound institutional setting potentially brings better trade, more growth and better environment.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub‐Saharan countries until the third interval (60–90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30–60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis.     

Product‐Marketing Innovation,Skills, and Firm Productivity Growth

The role of product and marketing innovation for productivity growth is addressed using survey and register data for the Danish economy. It is hypothesized that product and marketing innovation are complementary inputs and that innovation activities are skill‐intensive. It is established that product and marketing innovation in skill‐intensive firms results in significantly faster productivity growth. Moreover, product and marketing innovation have independent roles in productivity growth, which cannot be attributed to organizational changes. Finally, we apply an instrument variable approach for firms, innovation choices to study endogeneity. The results strongly support the idea that product–marketing innovation leads to faster productivity growth in skill‐intensive firms.     

PROGRESSIVE TAXATION,ENDOGENOUS GROWTH,AND MACROECONOMIC (IN)STABILITY

In the context of a standard one‐sector model of endogenous growth, we show that the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy and belief‐driven aggregate fluctuations under progressive taxation of income. When the tax schedule is regressive or flat, the economy's balanced growth path displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness. These results imply that in sharp contrast to a conventional automatic stabilizer, progressive income taxation may destabilize an endogenously growing macroeconomy by generating cyclical fluctuations driven by agents' self‐fulfilling expectations or sunspots.     

Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the former Silk Road regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in‐sample, out‐of‐sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990–2013. Our results suggest that China's former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China's economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

High growth and rising inequality in Kerala since the 1980s

Over the last three decades, the state of Kerala in South India has witnessed fast-paced growth, with the highest recorded inequality (in 2009–2010) among all the states in India; however, its human development indicators remain the highest in India. This marks a departure from the well-known development trajectory of Kerala – famously known as the Kerala model – of low growth and moderate inequality with high human development indicators. We conduct GDP and growth decomposition, inequality decomposition and a Marxian class analysis of the National Sample Survey data from Kerala in order to understand these recent phenomena. While the notion that economic liberalization adopted by the state and central governments is the main cause of this new state of affairs is generally valid, we provide a more nuanced account of the causal structures based on class analysis and the impact of outward labour migration to the Persian Gulf.