城乡关系的“自然顺序”之争及其透视

亚当·斯密的"自然顺序"强调了从乡村到城市的发展顺序及城乡发展成比例的原理,雅各布斯却对此进行质疑,并试图推翻它.通过理论分析和历史论证,亚当·斯密的自然顺序对乡村到城市发展顺序的判断是正确的.     

CUMIN charts

Classical control charts are very sensitive to deviations from normality. In this respect, nonparametric charts form an attractive alternative. However, these often require considerably more Phase I observations than are available in practice. This latter problem can be solved by introducing grouping during Phase II. Then each group minimum is compared to a suitable upper limit (in the two-sided case also each group maximum to a lower limit). In the present paper it is demonstrated that such MIN charts allow further improvement by adopting a sequential approach. Once a new observation fails to exceed the upper limit, its group is aborted and a new one starts right away. The resulting CUMIN chart is easy to understand and implement. Moreover, this chart is truly nonparametric and has good detection properties. For example, like the CUSUM chart, it is markedly better than a Shewhart X-chart, unless the shift is really large.     

How Does High-Frequency Trading Affect Low-Frequency Trading?

High-frequency trading dominates trading in financial markets. How it affects the low-frequency trading, however, is still unclear. Using NASDAQ order book data, the authors investigate this question by categorizing orders as either high or low frequency, and examining several measures. They find that high-frequency trading enhances liquidity by increasing the trade frequency and quantity of low-frequency orders. High-frequency trading also reduces the waiting time of low-frequency limit orders and improves their likelihood of execution. The results indicate that high-frequency trading has a liquidity provision effect and improves the execution quality of low-frequency orders.     

Interday and intraday volatility: Additional evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

After examining both the interday and intraday return volatility of the Shanghai Composite Stock Index, it was found that the open-to-open return variance is consistently greater than the close-to-close variance. Examining the volatility of interday returns and variance ratio tests with five-minute intervals reveals an L-shaped pattern, or more precisely, two L-shaped patterns, starting with a small hump during both the morning and the afternoon sessions, with the morning session having a much higher interday volatility than the afternoon session. This L-shaped interday volatility is supported by the similarly shaped intraday volatility pattern. This result suggests that the high volatility of intraday returns for the market open is not entirely due to the trading mechanisms (call auction in the market opening) but also due to both the accumulated overnight information and the trading halt effect. The five-minute breaks after the auction and blind auction procedures are the two major driving forces which exaggerate the high intraday volatility observed at the market open.

Optimal order placement in limit order markets

To execute a trade, participants in electronic equity markets may choose to submit limit orders or market orders across various exchanges where a stock is traded. This decision is influenced by characteristics of the order flows and queue sizes in each limit order book, as well as the structure of transaction fees and rebates across exchanges. We propose a quantitative framework for studying this order placement problem by formulating it as a convex optimization problem. This formulation allows the study of how the optimal order placement decision depends on the interplay between the state of order books, the fee structure, order flow properties and the aversion to execution risk. In the case of a single exchange, we derive an explicit solution for the optimal split between limit and market orders. For the general case of order placement across multiple exchanges, we propose a stochastic algorithm that computes the optimal routing policy and study the sensitivity of the solution to various parameters. Our algorithm does not require an explicit statistical model of order flow but exploits data on recent order fills across exchanges in the numerical implementation of the algorithm to acquire this information through a supervised learning procedure.     

The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis

We show that multivariate Hawkes processes coupled with the nonparametric estimation procedure first proposed in Bacry and Muzy [IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2016, 62, 2184–2202] can be successfully used to study complex interactions between the time of arrival of orders and their size observed in a limit order book market. We apply this methodology to high-frequency order book data of futures traded at EUREX. Specifically, we demonstrate how this approach is amenable not only to analyse interplay between different order types (market orders, limit orders, cancellations) but also to include other relevant quantities, such as the order size, into the analysis, showing also that simple models assuming the independence between volume and time are not suitable to describe the data.     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.     

西方新资本结构理论综述

资本结构理论所研究的基本问题是企业资本结构与企业价值的关系。西方经济学界围绕这一基本问题展开了全面深入的研究,形成了许多不同的资本结构理论。20世纪70年代以来,随着信息经济学、委托代理理论等现代分析工具引入资本结构分析,资本结构理论研究获得了新的发展,一系列解释资本结构问题的新观点便应运而生,其流派众多,具有代表性的理论有以下几种:代理成本理论、信号传递理论和优序融资理论等。     

一种基于动态规划的雷达合批新算法

针对信号分选结果增批现象严重、影响识别准确度的问题,通过分析实际侦收信号的特点,并借鉴生物信息学中动态规划比对算法的思想,提出了对脉冲重复周期（PRI）信号在载频维和脉宽维进行合批的方法,并结合该方法设计了动态合批处理流程。该算法通过比较两批数据在PRI值及其排列顺序上的相似性来进行合批,利用PRI周期性这一很稳定的特征较好地解决了批信号在载频和脉宽维上的增批问题。仿真结果表明,该算法在存在脉冲丢失和干扰脉冲的情况下仍能准确合批。     

Characteristics of the order flow through an electronic open limit order book

We estimate and examine certain characteristics of the order flow through an electronic open limit order book, using order (not trade) data. In doing this, we bring out new evidence on order flow from a market with microstructure different from that of the NYSE. We find that the proportion of informed orders is less than 10%, lower than previous estimates. Informed traders choose smaller orders than uninformed traders, but do not materially differ in their choice of limit or market orders. The proportion of informed investors is similar between good and bad news days. Finally, there are U-shaped intraday patterns in order arrival, and the information content of the order flow appears to follow this pattern across the day.