Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models

For hypotheses on the coefficient values of the lagged-dependent variables in the ARX class of dynamic regression models, test procedures are developed which yield exact inference for given (up to an unknown scale factor) distribution of the innovation errors. They include exact tests on the maximum lag length, for structural change and on the presence of (seasonal or multiple) unit roots, i.e. they cover situations where usually asymptotic and non-exact t, F, AOC, ADF or HEGY tests are employed. The various procedures are demonstrated and compared in illustrative empirical models and the approach is critically discussed.     

“啄序理论”的资本成本视角

西方财务理论认为,由于风险和税收的原因,债权资本成本远远低于股权资本。因此,在其他因素一定的情况下,企业筹资应优先考虑债权资本。但实践中却存在着“悖论”现象:基于实证研究的“啄序理论”,留存收益排在债权筹资顺序之前。而这种“悖论”现象完全可以从资本成本的角度得到合理的阐释,是企业理财实践中的理性选择。     

An examination of order effects in auditors' inherent risk assessments

While recency effects have been reported in a variety of audit tasks, recent studies suggest that these effects may be mitigated under certain conditions. The importance of investigating order effects in auditors' judgments rests with its potential to impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of audits. Since current studies suggest that recency effects may not impact on all audit situations, it is necessary to identify conditions or variables in the task environment that either induce or mitigate recency.
This study examines the occurrence of order effects in auditors' inherent risk assessments, a task not previously examined. Using a case study administered to 70 auditors, this study found that auditors' judgments were not influenced by the order in which audit evidence was evaluated. Rather, the results suggest that judgments of inherent risk may be biased towards conservatism. This may not be surprising given the negative consequences associated with failing to adequately plan an audit. This may cause auditors to act cautiously and thus mitigate recency effects.     

A two-step approach for identifying seasonal autoregressive time series forecasting models

One of the most powerful and widely used methodologies for forecasting economic time series is the class of models known as seasonal autoregressive processes. In this article we present a new approach not only for identifying seasonal autoregressive models, but also the degree of differencing required to induce stationarity in the data. The identification method is iterative and consists in systematically fitting increasing order models to the data, and then verifying that the resulting residuals behave like white noise using a two stage autoregressive order determination criterion. Once the order of the process is determined the identified structure is tested to see if it can be simplified. The identification performance of this procedure is contrasted with other order selection procedures for models with ‘gaps.' We also illustrate the forecast performance of the identification method using monthly and quarterly economic data.     

Capital Structure Across Industries

The purpose of this article is to examine the capital structure across different industries for companies quoted on a stock exchange and headquartered in the United States. The paper demonstrates significant difference in the capital structure depending on the industry where the company operates. The debt ratio sensitivities to the explanatory variables differ significantly between the five industries studied. Almost every significant coefficient obtained in our regressions is in accordance with capital structure theory and other studies. Debt ratio is negatively related to profitability, growth, and age, while asset structure and company size are positively related. However, the debt ratio of the 50 largest companies in the sample is negatively related to company size, which gives support to a currency hedging hypothesis.     

Communication protocols for order management in collaborative manufacturing

Collaborative manufacturing requires efficient and cost effective communications among the partners. To provide efficient and reliable communications, this research modularizes the design of communication protocols for order management in collaborative manufacturing. Ten protocol modules have been defined and designed in this research.With the 10 protocol modules, companies can easily construct the protocols to regulate the interactions between partner companies. This research designs five protocols associated with order management in collaborative manufacturing. The protocols are also implemented in a distributed computing environment. The results indicate that the modularized protocols ensure the reliability and efficiency of communications, and reduce the complexity in protocol design.     

论《农村土地承包法》的价值及其发展

《农村土地承包法》所确定的法的价值,在法律实践中是值得肯定的,但是在立法过程中所体现的法的价值,并不完整,仍然有所缺憾。随着经济的快速发展,《农村土地承包法》所内涵的法的价值也进一步得到发展。     

产业进入时机研究述评

进入时机选择是现实企业在市场进入战略中一种至关重要的决策,而作为跨研究领域的热点论题,产业进入时机的研究也日趋成熟。基于文献回顾,梳理了产业进入主题的研究发展脉络和重要观点,从进入次序效应的内在作用机制和影响因素出发,强调企业在产业进入决策中关于进入时机和竞争策略选择的应用性研究,以使理论探讨更加切合实际。     

成交风险、交易成本、逆向选择风险与投资者订单选择

本文利用多元对教条件自田归计数模型讨论了交易概率、交易成本以及选择成本等市场微观结构因素对中国证券市场投资者订单选择的影响.实证研究发现:(1)交易成本的增加会削弱投贵者递交指令的积极性,当成交风险较大时,投资者更偏好市价订单;(2)由于中国证券市场订单类型较为单一,逆向选择风险对投资者订单选择行为并无显著性的影响;(3)在同质信息的驱动下不同类型订单之间具有显著的持续和交叉相关性.     

创新网络治理机制与绩效：基于灰格序方法的创新联盟实证分析

对创新网络治理机制进行了系统的理论梳理,对创新网络治理机制、形成机制、整合机制、创新机制与治理绩效进行了构念解释,并建立了绩效测量指标。应用熵值法确定指标权重,结合灰色关联法与格序决策法,提出了灰格序评价方法。通过江苏省产业技术创新战略联盟实证研究,发现治理机制对创新网络治理绩效的作用具有较为显著的周期性特点。其中,形成机制具有先导性,是整合机制与创新机制发生作用的前提,创新机制具有滞后性,必须建立在有效的形成与整合机制的基础之上。