Mastering complexity and changes in projects,economy, and society via Project Management Second Order (PM‐2)

Project Management Second Order (PM‐2) is based on new insights in modern natural and social sciences, which were analyzed in a research program. This was explained in a previously published article in this journal (Saynisch, 2010 ). PM‐2 is a new paradigm and will be the leading concept for the next decades. The concept of PM‐2 was awarded the IPMA Research Award 2007 and the International Centre for Complex Project Management Research Prize 2010. The model represents a reference model. This article will explain the genesis of PM‐2 as well as the principles, methods, and processes. Further, practical use will be discussed and real examples of transfer will be shown as well as PM‐2 in the context of project‐oriented companies. Integration aspects of CPMCS (ICCPM), ICB3 (IPMA), PMBOK® Guide/OPM3® (PMI) as a future view will be shown.     

简述完善企业采购关键点

采购在整个企业的物料产品生产与服务资源中起到了关键性的作用,然而如何使整个采购过程趋于完美化是所以企业的采购部门必须面对的一大问题.答案是将采购部门与企业物流部门紧密的联系在一起,使其达到最晚没的合作,并将采购部门的采购准则标准化将是最好的途径之一.     

The effect of experience and complexity on order and recency bias in decision making by professional accountants

Recently, questions have been raised regarding the impact of experience on the susceptibility of professional accountants to judgment bias—particularly order and recency biases as predicted in the Belief‐Adjustment Model. The Belief‐Adjustment Model predicts recency effects will always exist in complex decision domains (regardless of experience). Complexity is defined within the model as a function of task familiarity and information load. The prior studies on experience and bias in accounting domains have focused on varying task familiarity and have found that task familiarity can mitigate order/recency bias. In this study, complexity is operationalised through heavy information load (a condition more consistent with professional accounting environments) while maintaining a high level of task familiarity. Two experiments were conducted. The first experiment utilised a going concern decision using highly experienced partners and managers. The second experiment was conducted in the insolvency domain and used 87 experienced insolvency practitioners. The results indicate that experience does not mitigate order/recency bias under conditions of heavy information load.     

The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward

Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data surprisingly well. But FX markets are evolving rapidly in response to new electronic trading technologies. Transparency has risen, trading costs have tumbled, and transaction speed has accelerated as new players have entered the market and existing players have modified their behavior. These changes will have profound effects on exchange rate dynamics. Looking forward, we highlight fundamental yet unanswered questions on the nature of private information, the impact on market liquidity, and the changing process of price discovery. We also outline potential microstructure explanations for long-standing exchange rate puzzles.     

企业债券融资的国际比较分析与启示——基于优序融资理论视角

本文基于优序融资理论,通过对不同融资模式下企业债券融资的国际比较,结合我国企业融资模式的变迁,指出大力发展企业债券融资是扩大我国企业融资渠道的必然选择。     

Disclosure Policy and Market Liquidity: Impact of Depth Quotes and Order Sizes*

This paper investigates the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. Our tests examine two key aspects of market liquidity, the effective bid‐ask spread and quoted depth, and how they relate to financial analysts' ratings of firms' disclosure policies. We introduce a method of combining order sizes and depth quotes to yield more precise estimates of effective spreads on trades likely constrained by quoted depth. We find that while firms with higher rated disclosures are charged lower effective spreads, they are also quoted lower depth, consistent with the notion that better disclosures reduce information asymmetry but also cause some liquidity suppliers to exit the market. Therefore, a simple examination of spreads and depths yields ambiguous inferences on the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. We resolve this ambiguity by estimating depth‐adjusted effective spreads, and find that firms with higher rated disclosures have lower depth‐adjusted effective spreads across all trade sizes. Consequently, our results reveal a robust inverse relation between disclosure ratings and effective trading costs. This implies that a policy of enhanced financial disclosure is related to improved market liquidity.     

Throughput time distribution analysis for a one-block warehouse

We develop discrete time models for the throughput time distribution of orders arriving to a one-block warehouse. The models accommodate single- or multi-line orders, and we show how to use them to determine the optimal batch size, given a desired probability of on-time order fulfillment. Experiments suggest that the optimal batch size is slightly higher than one would choose if minimizing average throughput time.     

Optimal economic ordering policy with deteriorating items under different supplier trade credits for finite horizon case

This paper develops and solves a general finite horizon trade credit economic ordering policy for an inventory model with deteriorating items under inflation and time value of money when shortages are not allowed. The time horizon is divided into different cycles each of which has its own demand rate and its own trade credit period offered from the supplier to his retailer so that the retailer should pay his supplier before or after the end of the permissible trade credit of that cycle. Up to the end of the trade credit of a cycle, the retailer is free of charge, but he is charged on an interest for those items not being sold before this end. The retailer can also earn the interest of the money from the generated sales revenue in any cycle by depositing such revenue into an interest bearing account. The objective of the retailer is then to minimize his net total relevant costs. A closed form of this net total cost is derived and the resulting model is solved. Then rigorous mathematical methods are used to show that, under some seemingly possible conditions, there exist a unique vector of the relevant decision variables that solve the underlying inventory system. A numerical example which shows the applicability of the theoretical results is given.     

Market structure and dealers’ quoting behavior in the foreign exchange market

This article examines how differently the same dealer quotes in the inter-dealer and customer foreign exchange markets that have different market structures. The model first predicts that customer spreads are generally wider than inter-dealer ones due to less transparency in the customer market. The model also predicts that since customers are believed to be less informed than dealers, the differential between customer and inter-dealer spreads tends to fall with the rise in order sizes. In addition, the dealer's mid-quotes are shown to be the same in the two markets. Empirical evidence based on data collected from a FX dealer supports these theoretical findings.     

中国出口退税制度改革与经济可持续增长

2004年和2005年中国出口退税制度进行了重要改革，此次出口退税政策的改革与调整是我国经济运行的必然要求，也是中国经济可持续发展的需要。此次实施的最新退税政策使其功能从促进出口扩展到维护正常贸易秩序、对资源的保护性开发和利用、对国际环境的控制等，其根本目的是实现经济和贸易可持续增长战略。