Supplier selection-order allocation: A two-stage multiple criteria dynamic programming approach

This paper proposes a two-stage multiple criteria dynamic programming approach for two of the most critical tasks in supply chain management, namely, supplier selection and order allocation. In the first stage, to address multiple decision criteria in supplier ranking, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is employed. In the second stage, supplier ranks are fed into an order allocation model that aims at maximizing a utility function for the firm as well as minimizing the total supply chain costs, subject to constraints on demand, capacity, and inventory levels. A dynamic programming approach is crafted to solve the proposed bi-objective model.     

自由人的自由契约--评J.布坎南《自由的限度--在无政府和利维坦之间》

<自由的限度--在无政府和利维坦之间>是1986年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主J.布坎南的一部重要著作,初版于1975年,其中文版即将被介绍给广大的中国读者.本文回顾了这部作品写作的时代背景,探讨了原书作者关于"社会秩序"问题的重要见解,对于理解正处于社会转型期的中国若干现实问题会有所裨益.本文还通过分析这部作品在布坎南整体学术思想中的位置,梳理了布坎南如何从财政学问题入手而走向社会哲学和道德哲学思考的研究路径.这对于全面系统地考察中国当前的公共财政制度建设问题,也有不应被忽略的方法论含义.     

Consistent order selection with strongly dependent data and its application to efficient estimation

Order selection based on criteria by Akaike (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control AC-19 (1974) 716), AIC, Schwarz (Ann. Stat. (1978) 461), BIC or Hannan and Quinn's (J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B (1979) 190) HIC is often applied in empirical examples. They have been used in the context of order selection of weakly dependent ARMA models, AR models with unit or explosive roots and in the context of regression or distributed lag regression models for weakly dependent data. On the other hand, it has been observed that data exhibits the so-called strong dependence in many areas. Because the interest to this type of data, our main objective in this paper is to examine order selection for a distributed lag regression model that covers in a unified form weak and strong dependence. To that end, and because the possible adverse properties of the aforementioned criteria, we propose a criterion function based on the decomposition of the variance of the innovations of the model in terms of their frequency components. Assuming that the order of the model is finite, say p₀, we show that the proposed criterion consistently estimates p₀. In addition, we show that adaptive estimation for the parameters of the model is possible without knowledge of p₀. Finally, a small Monte-Carlo experiment is included to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed criterion.     

Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book

We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms for these intensities, as well as new models for the placement of limit orders and cancellations. For cancellations, we introduce the concept of ‘priority index’ to describe the selection of orders to be cancelled in the order book. Parameters of the model are estimated using likelihood maximization. We illustrate the performance of the model by providing extensive simulation results, with a comparison to empirical data and a standard Poisson reference.     

Improving the Interpretation of Complex Audit Evidence: The Beneficial Role of Order Effects

A principal element of business risk (or strategic systems) auditing is the goal of evaluating the degree of concordance between management representations and expectations derived from an understanding of the business environment. Peecher et al. (2007) argue that an effective means by which auditors may achieve this goal is through a process of evidentiary triangulation. In this exploratory study, we investigate whether the order with which auditors evaluate business environment, information systems and financial statement representations evidence has the potential, as suggested by belief function theory, to improve the effectiveness with which they interpret the complex interrelationships between these three sources of evidence. Analyzing judgements made by practicing auditors in an experimental setting, our results reveal that, when faced with negative business environment evidence that is in conflict with positive information systems and financial statement representations evidence, auditors assess the risk of material misstatement to be higher when they are presented with the critically important business environment evidence last, rather than, as is traditionally the case, first. There is, however, some evidence to suggest that the positive order effects may be attenuated by the requirement to document reasons underlying the judgements made. The results raise a number of practical and theoretical issues that give direction to future research in this important area.     

Toward Mass Customized Product Deployment in E-Commerce: The Modularization Function and Postponement Strategy

Strategically deploying customized products in an e-commerce environment not only helps businesses respond with greater agility to customer needs and strengthen their market position, but also helps businesses gain competitive edge and increase profitability. Underlying successful mass customization within the digital marketplace, a firm needs a methodology for striking a balance between the degree of customization and product pricing and delivery time—a critical supply chain issue. Providing either too much or too little customization can negatively impact both the business and the customer.

This study introduces a decision-making method for product customization. This method takes into account the level of customization, production costs, and the product delivery time and applies the concept of postponement strategy to the product supply chain to boost overall supply chain effectiveness and customer satisfaction. Bicycle customization is used as an example to demonstrate the feasibility of the new approach to determine the optimal level of customization in product deployment.     

专家意见的模糊集成方法

德尔菲法是评价工作中常用的方法,其中核心的问题是把不同专家的意见集成为一个综合的评价结果。不同的专家由于其对评价对象认知等方面的差异可能会给出不同的判断,这些判断值的差异有时可能非常明显,集成方法的科学性,对专家意见集成结果的可靠性具有很大影响。本文在分析现有集成方法不足的基础上,提出了对现有方法改进的新方法。数例分析表明,这样的改进对专家意见集成结果有明显的影响。     

Introduction

Abstract

During the past few years Scandinavian historians have felt a growing need for a journal of economic and social history in which the results of research and reviews of literature in these fields might be published. This need reflects an increasing interest in economic and social history in these countries. It is against this background that the publication of the first number of an inter-Scandinavian periodical for economic and social history should be seen.     

The non-linear market impact of large trades: evidence from buy-side order flow

We perform an empirical study of a set of large institutional orders executed in the US equity market. Our results validate the hidden order arbitrage theory proposed by Farmer et al. [How efficiency shapes market impact, 2013] of the market impact of large institutional orders. We find that large trades are drawn from a distribution with tail exponent of roughly 3/2 and that market impact approximately increases as the square root of trade duration. We examine price reversion after the completion of a trade, finding that permanent impact is also a square root function of trade duration and that its ratio to the total impact observed at the last fill is roughly 2/3. Additionally, we confirm empirically that the post-trade price reverts to a level consistent with a fair pricing condition of Farmer et al. (2013 Farmer, D., Gerig, A., Lillo, F. and Waelbroeck, H., How efficiency shapes market impact, 2013. Available online at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1102.5457 [Google Scholar]). We study the relaxation dynamics of market impact and find that impact decay is a multi-regime process, approximated by a power law in the first few minutes after order completion and subsequently by exponential decay.     

克拉申“自然习得顺序假说”对二语习得研究的影响

＂自然习得顺序假说＂作为Krashen二语习得理论的重要组成部分,受到了二语研究者的普遍关注,同时也受到了很多的质疑。探讨＂自然习得顺序假说＂的理论基础,评述其研究方法,并且指出＂自然习得顺序假说＂存在的合理性,有助于进一步的理解该假说对二语教学与研究的指导意义。