Blocked-Error-R 2: A Conceptually Improved Definition of the Proportion of Explained Variance in Models Containing Loops or Correlated Residuals

Bentler and Raykov (2000, Journal of Applied Psychology 85: 125–131), and Jöreskog (1999a, http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column3.htm, 1999b http://www.ssicentral. com/lisrel/column5.htm) proposed procedures for calculating R ² for dependent variables involved in loops or possessing correlated errors. This article demonstrates that Bentler and Raykov’s procedure can not be routinely interpreted as a “proportion” of explained variance, while Jöreskog’s reduced-form calculation is unnecessarily restrictive. The new blocked-error-R ² (beR ²) uses a minimal hypothetical causal intervention to resolve the variance-partitioning ambiguities created by loops and correlated errors. Hayduk (1996) discussed how stabilising feedback models – models capable of counteracting external perturbations – can result in an acceptable error variance which exceeds the variance of the dependent variable to which that error is attached. For variables included within loops, whether stabilising or not, beR ² provides the same value as Hayduk’s (1996) loop-adjusted-R ². For variables not involved in loops and not displaying correlated residuals, beR ² reports the same value as the traditional regression R ². Thus, beR ² provides a conceptualisation of the proportion of explained variance that spans both recursive and nonrecursive structural equation models. A procedure for calculating beR ² in any SEM program is provided.     

价值型投资在中国证券市场上的有力证据

本文给出了1994年至2005年间价值型投资在中国A股市场中的有力证据。Fama—MacBeth回归表明在中国A股市场中存在着显著的市盈率和市净率溢价，1994年至2005年中牛市和熊市的滚动策略显示了我国A股市场中的价值效应，并且风险和收益之间基本上呈现出收益大、风险大的特征。本文的实证研究结果将有助于中小投资者以及机构投资者的长期投资决策。     

4P、4C与4R:交易费用经济学的视角

4P是经典营销理论的核心内容之一。随着经济、文化和技术的全球化与区域化不断发展,市场竞争异常激烈,顾客在大部分领域取得了绝对的选择权,营销理论随之出现了4C和4R等“崭新”内容。从交易费用经济学的角度看,4C和4R不是对4P的替代,而是一种重要补充和发展。     

刍议“3+2”模式高职教育管理问题及对策

“3+2”模式高职教育管理问题日益凸现,课程设置部分重复,教育质量呈下降趋势,高职教育资源不能充分利用。文章从影响“3+2”模式高职教育管理质量的内、外部原因进行分析,提出了一些对策,以努力提高“3+2”模式高职教育的质量。     

2,3-环氧丙基三甲基氯化铵壳聚糖接枝共聚物的制备研究

通过2,3-环氧丙基三甲基氯化铵(ETA)对壳聚糖进行接枝改性,探讨了影响其接枝改性的主要因素。结果表明,壳聚糖与ETA接枝的较合适反应条件是:壳聚糖与ETA摩尔比为1∶3、pH值为7、温度80℃、时间10小时、引发剂浓度0.5mmol/L;最后,通过红外光谱图进一步表征了壳聚糖接枝物的生成。     

论在中国B2C发展的若干问题

我国电子商务的环境在不断改善,接受网上购物方式的消费者越来越多.但2001年中国B2C并没有表现出太多令人欣喜之处,甚至部分曾经领先的电子商务网站不得不面对生死存亡的抉择.造成这种现状的原因不仅仅是电子商务整体的一些原因,也包括一些影响B2C发展的特有原因.如市场发育问题、互联网的环境和条件问题、信用制度完善的问题、物流配送问题、立法问题、具体经营问题等.这些瓶颈若不能得到合理的解决,对于电子商务发展的影响将会是巨大的.     

我国合理市盈率与股市泡沫的实证分析

市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。本根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论，导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，说明我国股票市场上的投资日趋成熟，投资行为日趋理性。     

“智能+”时代背景下跨学科应用型物流人才培养模式探究

通过对“智能+”时代背景下应用型物流人才社会需求变化的调查分析,提出对现有物流专业在知识、能力、素质结构体系方面的调整建议,围绕“课程体系改革”及“教学工作改革”两个重点领域,依托“四个平台”,对构建创新型“智慧物流”专业的“ILTTM2+4”培养机制进行了深入探讨。     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

Investment in the absence of property rights; the role of incumbency advantages

In many situations the individuals who can generate some output must enter a contest for appropriating this output. This paper analyses the investment incentives of such agents and the role of incumbency advantages in the contest. Depending on the advantages, an increase in the productivity of the investment can decrease or increase the amount of investment. The results are applied to autocrats’ investment behavior and job specific investment in organizations.