Flexible mixture modelling of stochastic frontiers

This paper introduces new and flexible classes of inefficiency distributions for stochastic frontier models. We consider both generalized gamma distributions and mixtures of generalized gamma distributions. These classes cover many interesting cases and accommodate both positively and negatively skewed composed error distributions. Bayesian methods allow for useful inference with carefully chosen prior distributions. We recommend a two-component mixture model where a sensible amount of structure is imposed through the prior to distinguish the components, which are given an economic interpretation. This setting allows for efficiencies to depend on firm characteristics, through the probability of belonging to either component. Issues of label-switching and separate identification of both the measurement and inefficiency errors are also examined. Inference methods through MCMC with partial centring are outlined and used to analyse both simulated and real data. An illustration using hospital cost data is discussed in some detail.

出生排序与行为偏好的经济实验研究

作为社会科学研究中的一个家庭背景指标,出生顺序和子女性别结构会影响人们的行为选择以及行为结果。文章以大学生为被试,采用实验室实验方法研究了出生顺序和子女性别结构对信任行为、风险偏好与竞争偏好的影响。实验研究发现：二胎的信任水平和竞争偏好都显著高于一胎。虽然二胎的风险偏好高于一胎,但统计上并不显著;同时,子女性别结构会影响出生顺序效应。在信任水平方面,混合结构下的二胎显著高于一胎,而同性结构下的出生顺序效应并不显著;在风险偏好与竞争偏好方面,同性结构下的二胎显著高于一胎,而混合结构下的出生顺序效应不显著。文章结论能够加深人们对不同出生顺序下个体行为偏好异质性的理解,具有一定的政策含义。     

我国基金重仓股选股偏好的时期似无关回归分析

基于基金重仓股季度面板数据,本文采用时期似无关回归模型分析了四大类共28个指标对基金持股比例的影响,并利用基金重仓股的统计值特点发现基金筛选股票的标准。研究结果表明,基金确实在寻求价值型投资,扩大基金规模可减轻股市投机行为;基金在调研阶段和操盘阶段对风险有不同的偏好,调研阶段规避风险,操盘阶段偏好高风险高回报;基金偏爱长期流动性好的股票;开放式基金的选股要求高于封闭式基金,牛市时基金的选股要求高于熊市;基金偏爱关注率高、信息丰富的股票;基金对行业的偏好基于行业的业绩表现;基金重仓股持股比例基本上与指数有相似的变化趋势。     

Machines learn neuromarketing: Improving preference prediction from self-reports using multiple EEG measures and machine learning

A basic aim of marketing research is to predict consumers’ preferences and the success of marketing campaigns at the population-level. However, traditional marketing tools have various limitations, calling for novel measures to improve predictive power. In this study, we use multiple types of measures extracted from electroencephalography (EEG) recordings and machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve preference prediction based on self-reports alone. Subjects watched video commercials of six food products as we recorded their EEG activity, after which they responded to a questionnaire that served as a self-report benchmark measure. Thereafter, subjects made binary choices over the food products. We attempted to predict within-sample and population level preferences, based on subjects’ questionnaire responses and EEG measures extracted during the commercial viewings. We reached 68.5% accuracy in predicting between subjects’ most and least preferred products, improving accuracy by 4.07 percentage points compared to prediction based on self-reports alone. Additionally, EEG measures improved within-sample prediction of all six products by 20%, resulting in only a 1.91 root mean squared error (RMSE) compared to 2.39 RMSE with questionnaire-based prediction alone. Moreover, at the population level, assessed using YouTube metrics and an online questionnaire, EEG measures increased prediction by 12.7% and 12.6% respectively, compared to only a questionnaire-based prediction. We found that the most predictive EEG measures were frontal powers in the alpha band, hemispheric asymmetry in the beta band, and inter-subject correlation in delta and alpha bands. In summary, our novel approach, employing multiple types of EEG measures and ML models, offers marketing practitioners and researchers a valuable tool for predicting individual preferences and commercials’ success in the real world.     

Collage creation: unexplored potential in tourism research

This paper proposes collage creation as an elicitation tool of underexplored potential in tourism research. Collage creation was employed within an exploratory research investigating the destination image of Jordan. This work focuses on the process of the tool development, and reports the assessment of the tool-related trustworthiness in this specific application. Collage creation emerged to be a valuable tool; it proved efficacious in encouraging participants’ elaboration of thoughts, aiding self-expression, and disclosing preconceptions and stereotypes. Further tool development would benefit both tourism and hospitality research, while applications of the tool may be useful for destination marketing development and renewal.     

Group size and the (in)efficiency of pure public good provision

Are larger groups better at cooperation than smaller groups? This paper investigates, under controlled conditions, the presence and direction of a possible group size effect in pure public good provision by large heterogeneous groups. Employing subjects drawn from the general population and introducing Internet-based procedures to study this question, we collected experimental evidence from 1110 subjects playing a linear public goods game in groups of 10, 40, and 100 members. We find a positive and significant group size effect: Increasing group size by a factor of 10 (4) increased efficiency by 10 (6) percent. The effect arose at the intensive margin and with repetition. Those who contributed contributed more in larger groups. Larger and smaller groups had similar initial contribution levels, but cooperation rates declined more slowly in the larger groups. Free-riding was invariant to group size, despite subjects׳ persistent beliefs of a negative group size effect at the extensive margin. Further econometric examination of the data supports these findings and provides starting points for future theoretical and experimental research on the group size effect.     

Perceptions of risk among children with and without attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Traditionally, health professionals have positioned injury prevention strategies from their own perspective with little acknowledgement or understanding of the perspective of those who experience risk taking: specific populations of children with differing approaches to risk perception and problem-solving. The present study addresses this oversight by engaging children with and without attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to explore the meaning of risk from their perspective. Although both groups of children reported similar processes of assessing risk, unique to children with ADHD was the overestimation of their physical abilities, intentional risk taking and anticipation of positive or no consequences of their risk taking. These findings also advance our knowledge of potentially appropriate strategies to effect change in risk taking that could influence risk of injury. Specifically, findings suggest that prevention efforts that incorporate both cognitive and social interventions are the most promising approaches. Integrating this understanding of children's perception of risk builds our knowledge about the contribution of risk perception to injury events and may help to inform future injury prevention initiatives with children with ADHD.     

The Salient and Organic Images of Taiwan as Perceived by Mainland Chinese Tourists

This research investigates the salient and organic images of Taiwan as perceived by Mainland Chinese tourists. Using the method of free elicitation to ask respondents to describe freely their holistic, psychological and unique images of Taiwan, this research obtained abundant marketing information from 57 potential visitors and 59 actual visitors. The results show that Taiwan is perceived to be a beautiful island with attractive nature and culture. The results also reveal that cultural proximity makes Taiwan a sentimental destination for the Mainland Chinese. The above results provide evidence that free elicitation is an effective method of measuring destination image.     

Can Hypothetical Questions Reveal True Values? A Laboratory Comparison of Dichotomous Choice and Open-Ended Contingent Values with Auction Values

Can hypothetical questions reveal true values? An examination of thelaboratory experimental literature examining contingent valuation (CV)lends some support for using open-ended hypothetical willingness to payquestions. However, experimental studies examining dichotomous choicehave found that hypothetical answers overstate demand. Consistent withthe experimental literature, published CV studies comparing open-ended todichotomous choice questions have shown that values from the dichotomouschoice method equal or exceed those of the open-ended method in everycase. This paper presents a series of experiments employing more than 800subjects to test this hypothesis for CV and compares the CV results toactual auction values in a single controlled experimental environment.