印度对华反倾销:行业分布与成因探究

目前印度已成为世界上发起对华反倾销案件最多的国家,并且打击力度不断增强。1992年以来,印度对中国产品频繁使用反倾销措施,且手段越来越严酷,具有涉案产品多、确认损害比例高、最终税率高的特点。印度对华反倾销案件涉及的产业较为集中,且对不同行业裁定的最终税率具有显著差异。使用Probit方法及行业数据考察印度对华反倾销案件裁定结果的影响因素,经验结果表明,印度当局在进行反倾销裁定时,综合考虑了政治、经济因素和中国特定因素,3类因素在裁定过程中相互影响、共同发挥作用,裁定结果也受到国内利益集团的影响,并且对中国产品有很强的歧视性。     

农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿及其影响因素分析——基于黑、鲁、豫、川4省684户农户的调查数据

农业废弃物资源化利用是防治农业面源污染、改善农业生产环境的有效途径;同时,也是改善农村人居环境,推动生态宜居美丽乡村建设的重要内容。基于黑龙江、山东、河南、四川4省684个样本农户数据,运用多元排序Probit模型分析了农户农业废弃物资源化利用参与意愿及其影响因素,并通过控制相关变量进行了稳健性检验。结果表明,政府监管并不能提高农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿,而前景预期、政策了解度、农业废弃物资源化补贴、设立固定回收点或与回收企业合作、合作社参与等因素更能提高农户的参与意愿。为此,可以采取发挥非经济预期的作用、构建财政补贴机制、健全农业废弃物资源化回收利用机制、利用合作社平台等措施激发农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的关键行为动机,提高农户参与农业废弃物资源化利用的意愿,推动农业绿色发展及乡村生态振兴。     

2009年中国经济增长率周期波动呈U型走势——利用景气指数和Probit模型的分析和预测

本文基于景气指数、"宏观经济监测预警信号系统"及Probit模型方法,对当前的经济景气状况和走势进行了分析和预测.结果表明:先行合成指数和先行扩散指数同时在2008年10月出现谷底,预示着本轮经济周期波动的谷将出现在2009年的4月或5月.在全球金融危机的背景下,中国经济仍会保持"一枝独秀",2009年下半年我国将处于经济周期波动的上升阶段.但是我国外需仍然不振,保增长将主要靠内需,经济增长周期波动的回升将呈现U型走势.     

少数民族外出务工决策的个人禀赋、家庭特征、制度因素分析

新疆少数民族农村富余劳动力转移是一个急待解决的命题。只有大量减少少数民族农村富余劳动力,民族聚居区的经济活跃才有希望,城乡协调可持续发展才有可能。依据528份新疆少数民族农民工样本的有序Probit模型分析可知:少数民族务工人员的"年龄、清真饮食、务工技能、语言沟通、父母是否健在、家庭年收入、户籍制度和城镇社会保障"对外出务工有显著影响。重视少数民族的个人禀赋、家庭特征差异以及制度安排,对于提升新疆少数民族农民工务工信心,促进少数民族农村富余劳动力合理有序转移具有重要意义。     

Traditional bazaar or supermarkets: A probit analysis of affluent consumer perceptions in Hanoi

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the preferences and behaviour of Vietnamese consumers in an emerging market economy. We analysed survey data of affluent consumers in Hanoi by using a binary choice Probit model for traditional bazaars versus supermarkets. The purpose of the analysis was to measure the factors which influence decision-making by consumers when selecting particular retail outlets for shopping. Our results show that freshness, price and convenience are important in shaping the choice by consumers for traditional outlets for fresh food, while price played a key role in selecting shopping outlets for processed food and drinks and non-food products. The results provide a basis for understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the old and the new retail outlet formats.     

Consumer acceptability of yellow maize products in Zimbabwe

This study analyzes consumers’ awareness of and attitudes towards yellow maize products in Zimbabwe and suggests intervention strategies that will ensure increased production and consumption of the crop, which is rich in provitamin A to help prevent the incidence of vitamin A deficiency prevalent among vulnerable groups. Data from 360 randomly selected rural and urban households show that yellow maize is known to all but few are aware of its nutritional qualities or consume it. The main source of supply is imported food aid. Rich in oils, carotenoids and fructose, yellow maize easily undergoes chemical changes to produce unacceptable organoleptic properties (or bad taste) if poorly handled during importation. These two factors are responsible for it being perceived inferior to white maize by consumers. Quality assurance during importation can improve consumer confidence but a long-term strategy will be to vigorously promote domestic production of yellow maize varieties rich in high levels of β-carotene that meet the preferences of consumers. Drawing from a probit model regression analysis, nutritional education can potentially promote yellow maize consumption, especially if targeted at low income households. Domestic production and consumption of yellow maize will decrease vitamin A deficiency among vulnerable groups and improve food insecurity through reduced grain prices and increased incomes for farmers. These results draw attention to the need for policy makers in developing countries to review their agricultural policies to ensure that they do not undermine the local production and consumption of nutritionally valuable crops.     

稻作经营大户对有偿服务的支付意愿及影响因素

以调查数据为依据,通过Probit模型对稻作经营大户对农业有偿技术服务的支付意愿及其影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明支付意愿受到户主的文化程度、非农业劳动力比重、对农技部门提供服务的评价、生产资金来源等多方面因素的影响,提出加强农村基础教育投入、完善农业科技推广体系和农村信贷服务等相关政策建议。     

The demand for organic foods in the South of Italy: A discrete choice model

This paper analyses organic food consumer’s demand that can help advising on implementing organic food policies at European level or, for a particular European country. In particular, it investigates the main factors explaining organic food demand in the South of Italy. Following the Lancaster consumer’s demand theory we assume that consumer’s utility depends on product characteristics instead of the product itself. Thus, consumers will choose the product (organic versus conventional) that possesses the combination of attributes that maximises its utility. Consumer’s choice for organic foods is analysed within the random utility discrete choice model and a bivariate probit model has been specified. The data were collected through a questionnaire conducted in the Italian region of Campania (Naples) in 2003. Findings indicate that economic factors are still factors limiting the growth of organic demand in Europe. Moreover, the consumers’ perceived benefits of organic food (environmental and health) are factors promoting organic food demand. In addition, greater information on organic food products is crucial to expand its demand in the South of Italy because this information will increase the consumer’s organic knowledge. Then, higher organic knowledge will increase the probability to buy organic foods and, to a larger extent, the level of consumption among existing consumers.     

The effectiveness of economic sanctions with application to the case of Iraq

In a recent article, San Ling Lam (1990) used a probit estimation technique to re-examine the conclusions of Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott (1985) regarding the effectiveness of economic sanctions in achieving foreign policy goals. While Lam's criticisms of the HSE methodology are valid, the results of the model developed here differ in lending support to the HSE conclusions. In addition, the model can be used to predict the probability of sanctions contributing to a peaceful resolution of the recent Middle East crisis. The predicted probabilities of success in the Iraq case were above average and well above 50 percent.