The determinants of tax haven FDI

This paper examines the determinants of a multinational enterprise's (MNEs) decision to set up tax haven subsidiaries. We adapt the firm-specific advantage–country-specific advantage (FSA–CSA) framework and construct a number of empirically testable hypotheses. The analysis is based on a database covering 14,209 MNEs in twelve OECD countries. We find that the variety of capitalism of a MNEs home location and the level of technological intensity has a strong impact on this decision. We also find that the home country corporate tax rate has a minimal impact. This suggests that corporate tax liberalisation is unlikely to deter MNEs from undertaking this activity.     

What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?

The aim of this paper is to examine the predictive power of the term structure of Tunisia bond yields using Probit models with monthly data. The results are consistent with many studies performed in other countries and relatively inconclusive although. The yield curve can be considered as an advanced indicator for growth or recession in Tunisian economy. The paper provides significant evidence to private investors, market participants and policy makers on the usefulness of the spread in forecasting output growth for up to four quarters ahead.     

Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US

The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probabilityof inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is consideredwith a probit model using US data. Given the Federal ReserveSystem's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attentionis given to the target that future inflation will be below recentinflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemploymentand capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecastingthe direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggestthat extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to considerchanges in labour market conditions, technological advance andworker skills, and openness will increase understanding of theseissues.     

Supporting high-tech start-ups: Lessons from Italian technology policy

Public intervention is often advocated in high-tech sectors in order to solve market imperfections that limit the activity of new technology-based firms (NTBFs). Whilst some European countries have adopted national government support policies which explicitly target this type of firm; in Italy, as in other EU countries, there are no public support measures specifically designed for NTBFs. So, a question arises: to what extent are the NTBFs of these countries able to get funds from public administration? The paper focuses on the Italian case, and after a review of the available national public subsidies, through empirical and econometric analyses, it investigates whether horizontal general-purpose direct support mechanisms at national level permit an efficient allocation of public funds. The results highlight the need for more specific and customised policy measures towards NTBFs.     

Trade deficits and trade conflict: The United States and Japan

The US trade relationship with Japan was characterised by periods of intense conflict over 1969−95. The paper identifies five such periods, beginning with two bitter conflicts in 1971 and ending with an equally difficult conflict over autos in 1994−95. It presents econometric evidence suggesting rising Japanese penetration of the American market and growth in the bilateral merchandise trade deficit with Japan were important causes of these crises. Over 1996–2016, US-Japan relations were handled in a much less confrontational manner, as import penetration declined. The difficulties Japan’s economy faced; heightened security concerns in Northeast Asia; a broader US shift away from unilateral measures; greater acceptance of the trade deficit; and perceptions that Japan was moving to open its economy were also important in lessening tensions in the bilateral relationship. Strong concerns with the US trade deficit re-emerged under the Trump Administration, but the two economies were, during this period, able to address trade differences without a major confrontation.     

Do differences in attitudes explain differences in national climate change policies?

In meeting the threat posed by climate change nations have responded quite differently. Using an extensive data set this study explores factors that affect individuals' attitudes towards climate change and how those attitudes ultimately affect national climate change policy. The results show that attitudes do indeed matter in implementing policy and that attitudes are shaped not only by how individuals react to the specific attributes of climate change, but also by information, by the openness of society and by attitudes toward the trustworthiness of government.     

河南省农地流转模式选择意愿影响因素分析

在农户调查的基础上,本文利用有序Probit模型对影响农地流转模式选择意愿的因素进行分析。研究结果表明,文化程度、家庭年收入、家庭流转的土地亩数、经济发展水平、政府对农地流转的态度、农地流转的价格、农地流转的年限等,对农地流转模式选择意愿的影响显著,而其他变量的影响不显著。在此基础上,深入分析了各影响因素的作用方向及不显著的可能解释,为优化选择农地流转模式和推动农地流转市场化提供有益的参考。     

“空心化”背景下农村外出劳动力回流意愿研究

大量农村劳动力的转移,使农村的人口“空心化”现象愈加严重,给农村社会的发展带来了很大的阻碍。推进城乡一体化建设,发展农村多元化产业,进行农村的就地城镇化,吸引外出农民回流,在家乡就近就业,实现治理人口“空心化”和推动城镇化建设的双赢。文章基于苏北农村的调研,采用Probit模型,分析外出农民就近就业意愿。结果表明：农民回流意愿与受教育程度、外出收入所占比例、回家频次、家中是否有老人或学生、对当地教育和基础设施满意度等显著相关。分析农民工回流意愿,对治理农村人口“空心化”,建设社会主义新农村等有参考意义。     

产业链组织模式、信息获取能力与农户借贷行为--基于新疆492户棉农的实地调查

基于新疆492户棉农的调查数据,使用IRT模型估计农户信息获取能力,借助Probit模型探究产业链组织模式和信息获取能力对农户借贷行为的影响。结果显示:市场随机型农户占比较大,能利用现代媒介(电脑或手机)渠道获取信息的农户信息获取能力更强;企业带动型及合作经济组织带动型的产业链组织模式对农户正规借贷及非正规借贷均存在显著正向影响,且合作经济组织带动型的影响程度更大;信息获取能力对农户正规借贷存在显著正向影响,对农户非正规借贷存在反向不显著影响。研究还发现,文化程度、生计活动、种植面积、保险购买情况等控制变量对农户借贷行为构成显著影响。鉴于此,提出发挥产业链融资优势、加强农村信息建设、开发"双保险"产品等政策建议。     

政策资源获取对农民工返乡创业绩效的影响——基于江西调查数据

基于江西省438份返乡创业农民工调查数据,实证分析了政策资源获取对农民工返乡创业绩效的影响,结果表明:政策资源获取对农民工返乡创业绩效有重要影响,并且对初始创业的农民工影响较大,而对达到一定创业水平的农民工影响较小;年龄、文化程度、电话费支出、兄弟姐妹数、创业年数等因素对农民工返乡创业绩效有显著正影响,性别、婚姻状况的影响不大。研究还发现,与其它经营形式相比,个体户创业的农民工取得的创业绩效较低。