How much trustworthy and salubrious an organic jam should be? The impact of organic logo on the Italian jam market

This paper studies the impact of organic logo in the Italian jam market. Using data on true sales in Italian supermarkets in the 2002–2004 period we estimate the structural demand model developed by Berry (1994). This approach allows us to solve potential endogeneity problem in the estimation of the price coefficient in the demand equation, as well as other aspects related to multiple sources of differentiation. In a market where 62 percent of organic jams are diet this approach allows us to identify separately the market power induced by the organic logo and by the low content of sugar. The estimation results from various specifications of GEV class of models show that the organic attribute guarantees a degree of market power greater than the diet attribute. However, the protection from competition entailed by the organic logo is not particularly strong, and the diet attribute does not guarantees additional protection to organic jams. Most importantly, our findings show that consumers trust more big organic producers thus suggesting important policy implications on the supply and marketing side of the jam market.     

Microfinance Interest Rates and Client Returns

The interest rates of microfinance institutions (MFIs) are widely criticized, although they are lower than those of many short‐term lenders in ‘developed’ countries. The criticisms are not usually related to the returns on micro‐investments. Little data is available, but earnings from farming seem generally to be below or little above the interest charged for microcredit. Returns from petty trade, a more frequent use of such credit, are well over the price that micro‐borrowers pay for their loans. Microfinance is not a replacement for subsidized farm credit; farming is subsidized, everywhere, and efforts should be made to improve and revive the provision of low‐cost agricultural finance.     

基于PDM系统的产品研发过程项目管理

在对企业产品研发过程和项目管理进行分析的基础上,提出了基于PDM系统的产品研发过程项目管理解决方案。通过建立PDM系统中产品研发过程项目管理模型,实现了对产品研发过程管理的综合描述,保证了对项目运行过程中的任务进行管理和监控。     

The Breakdown of Idiosyncratic Volatility Into Expected and Unexpected Components and Its Effects on Stock Returns in Brazil

Based on studies of idiosyncratic volatility developed in the recent literature, this study analyzes its relation with expected returns through the breakdown of idiosyncratic volatility in the Brazilian stock market and presents evidence of the importance of expected idiosyncratic volatility for asset pricing. We study the impact of the expected and unexpected components of idiosyncratic volatility on the returns of shares listed on the BOVESPA between 2004 and 2011. The results show a strong positive and significant relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns. This evidence is highlighted when we use unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns. Additional robustness tests, controlling for size and momentum effects, also have positive and significant coefficients, corroborating previous findings.     

Re‐assessing the long‐term underperformance of UK Initial Public Offerings

Previous work has identified that IPOs underperform a market index, and the purpose of this paper is to examine the robustness of this finding. We re‐examine the evidence on the long‐term returns of IPOs in the UK using a new data set of firms over the period 1985–92, in which we compare abnormal performance based on a number of alternative methods including a calendar‐time approach. We find that, using an event‐time framework, there are substantial negative abnormal returns to an IPO after the first 3 years irrespective of the benchmark used. However, over the 5 years after an IPO, abnormal returns exhibit less dramatic underperformance, and the conclusion on negative abnormal returns depends on the benchmark applied. Further if these returns are measured in calendar time, we find that the (statistical) significance of underperformance is even less marked.     

Market Positioning of Differentiated Products

A brand is a mean of product differentiation and a kind of a sign by which we can distinguish one commodity from another. Consumers' utility, as well as commodity prices are affected by brands. Therefore, the market positioning of branded products is important for firms, too, since it affects profits. This paper presents a theoretical framework that incorporates aspects of brand in microeconomic analysis and the tools for an effective market positioning of differentiated products. A case study illustrates the workings of the methodology; the application evaluates the quality of major tyres producers and undertakes their market positioning.     

Earnings Forecasts and the Information Contained in Spinoff Announcements

This study examines spinoff announcements in conjunction with financial analysts’ forecasts of earnings. The analysis shows that spinoff announcement abnormal returns are significantly related to the firm's information environment as proxieci by financial analysts’ earnings prediction errors. The findings also indicate that analysts significantly increase their short-term earnings forecasts in response to spinoffs, but do not significantly revise their long-term earnings forecasts. However, the earnings revisions are not significantly different across prediction error groups, which confirms that spinoff-related abnormal returns cannot be attributed solely to expected performance gains.     

Pitfalls in estimates of the relationship between stock returns and inflation

Empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis give conflicting results, regardless of whether income growth is accommodated in the estimates. This paper shows theoretically and empirically that standard methods of testing the Fisher hypothesis give biased results and that the bias depends on the specification of the Fisher equation, the process governing inflation, measurement of inflation expectations, and the time aggregation of the data. Alternative tests show that share markets take several years to adjust to innovations in inflation and therefore that the Fisher hypothesis cannot be maintained. Helpful comments and suggestions from Hans Christian Kongsted, Darrel Turkington and seminar participants at the University of Western Australia, and University of Konstanz and, particularly, two referees, are gratefully acknowledged.     

NO MARGINAL ARBITRAGE OF THE SECOND KIND FOR HIGH PRODUCTION REGIMES IN DISCRETE TIME PRODUCTION–INVESTMENT MODELS WITH PROPORTIONAL TRANSACTION COSTS

We consider a class of production–investment models in discrete time with proportional transaction costs. For linear production functions, we study a natural extension of the no‐arbitrage of the second kind condition introduced by Rásonyi. We show that this condition implies the closedness of the set of attainable claims and is equivalent to the existence of a strictly consistent price system under which the evaluation of future production profits is strictly negative. This allows us to discuss the closedness of the set of terminal wealth in models with nonlinear production, functions which may admit arbitrages of the second kind for low production regimes but not marginally for high production regimes.     

The Effect of Probabilistic Selling on the Optimal Product Mix

Determination of the merchandize assortment is an important decision for retailers since the composition and depth of the product mix greatly impact both unit sales and costs. This paper considers how Probabilistic Selling (PS), an emerging marketing strategy, impacts the type and number of products a retailer should carry. We find that adopting PS can alter the optimal number of products (i.e., encourage the retailer to offer more or fewer products), depending on demand- and supply-side factors. Furthermore, introducing probabilistic goods sometimes increases the optimal degree of product differentiation and sometimes reduces it. Specifically, less differentiated products are warranted if there are either few or many consumers with extreme tastes, but more differentiation is needed otherwise. Our analysis reveals that PS can serve either as a substitute to new product introduction (because it enables a retailer to serve a diverse market at a lower cost) or as a complement to new product introduction (since, under PS, a new product enables a retailer to offer additional probabilistic goods that utilize this new product as one of its components). In sum, our results indicate that a retailer must adjust its merchandize assortment appropriately in order to fully benefit from probabilistic selling.