Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

Cooperative game analysis of coordination mechanisms under fairness concerns of a green retailer

This study discusses how a green retailer's fairness concerns affect product greenness and profit and explores how to distribute surplus profits under the fairness concerns using cooperative game theory. Research findings indicate that cooperation contributes to increasing channel profits and improving product greenness, but the fairness concerns are detrimental to them. The three proposed coordination mechanisms (SVM, NSM, and TVM) are feasible to ensure coalition stability, but their beneficiaries differ. NSM benefits a manufacturer, while SVM benefits retailers. Additionally, the green retailer's fairness concerns serve as distribution tools to narrow profit gaps between the manufacturer and the green retailer.     

Impact of quality on estimations of hotel efficiency

This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of output quality on hotel efficiency. It demonstrates how ignoring quality can lead to erroneous efficiency estimates. The study uses stochastic frontier methodology and the model proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995) to estimate the efficiency of 838 hotels in Spain in the period 2009–2013. The key advantage of this methodology is its ability to estimate efficiency and identify factors that explain differences in efficiency in a single-stage sampling procedure. Estimates of cost efficiency, which only include the costs of higher quality, are compared to those of profit efficiency, which not only consider costs but also the revenues generated by higher quality. Results show that quality has a negative impact on cost efficiency and a positive one on profit efficiency. Thus, hotel management should implement strategies that increase the value of their services as a way to achieve sustainable competitive advantages.     

企业价值评估贴现模型的比较分析

贴现模型是企业价值评估中应用较为普遍的模型,但在我国实践中使用贴现模型存在很多问题。本文利用自由现金流量贴现法、调整现值法、经济利润贴现法三种常用的方法,探讨贴现模型不同参数指标的原理、使用原则、使用条件及在我国实践中的适应性,希望讨论能够为企业价值评估实务提供指导和帮助。     

基于古诺模型的四种市场的社会福利

市场根据垄断程度的不同。可以分为完全竞争、垄断竞争、寡头垄断和完全垄断市场四种类型。基于古诺模型，用博弈论方法研究n个厂商市场情形的总产量、价格、总收益和消费者剩余并把它们归纳为统一的公式。从四种市场情形总产量和价格的特点推出其供给曲线的形状，进而比较其社会福利的状况。研究结果表明，随着垄断性的加强，市场的社会福利会越来越劣，完全竞争市场的社会福利最好，垄断竞争市场次之，寡头垄断市场更次，完全垄断市场的社会福利最差。     

Minimal Hellinger martingale measures of order <Emphasis Type="Italic">q</Emphasis>

This paper proposes an extension of the minimal Hellinger martingale measure (MHM hereafter) concept to any order q≠1 and to the general semimartingale framework. This extension allows us to provide a unified formulation for many optimal martingale measures, including the minimal martingale measure of Föllmer and Schweizer (here q=2). Under some mild conditions of integrability and the absence of arbitrage, we show the existence of the MHM measure of order q and describe it explicitly in terms of pointwise equations in ? ^d . Applications to the maximization of expected power utility at stopping times are given. We prove that, for an agent to be indifferent with respect to the liquidation time of her assets (which is the market’s exit time, supposed to be a stopping time, not any general random time), she is forced to consider a habit formation utility function instead of the original utility, or equivalently she is forced to consider a time-separable preference with a stochastic discount factor.     

寻找理性经济行为的逻辑新起点——试论中国传统伦理下的中庸理性经济人

在主流经济学的视野中,追求效用最大化是社会个体理性行为的基本准则。文章认为主流经济学理性假设的根本问题在于没有揭示特定人类社会的独特复杂特征。主流经济学家忽略了在现实生活中存在于西方文明之外的实然——中庸理性。文章尝试在以中庸理性为假设的理性经济人模型基础上,探讨中国传统伦理下中庸理性经济人的演化及其存在的可能空间。     

我国装备制造业经济效益评价——基于拉开档次法

对现有的工业经济效益评价指标体系进行了分析,并提出了改进建议。运用拉开档次法评价了我国及27个省(自治区、直辖市)装备制造业的经济效益情况。研究结果显示:我国装备制造业的经济效益不容乐观,尤其是西部地区装备制造业的经济效益较低。提出建议:我国装备制造业应调整产业结构,提高自主创新能力,并将经济增长方式由粗放型转变为集约型。     

论经济学的边界

有经济学家认为经济学的基本逻辑可以解释人类所有的行为,他们运用经济行为模式对其他学科的传统“领地”簪越扩张,进行“经济学帝国主义”,试图用经济学的基本分析法方代替所有社会科学。但是随着经济学的扩张,经济学的解释力减弱,扩张的边际收益递减;同时,要求的理论创新加大,即边际成本递增。当两者相等时就达到了一种扩张的均衡,由此可以确立经济学的合理边界。     

企业财务管理目标的合理选择——企业价值最大化

财务管理目标是企业在特定的理财环境中通过组织财务活动和综合处理财务关系所要达到的根本目的.本文在分析我国目前关于财务管理目标的观点的基础上论述了企业价值最大化是财务管理目标的合理选择.