论证销售量动与利润变动的关系

章通过论证，揭示出销售量变动与利润变动的关系是：在其它因素不变的情况下，利润的变动率总是大于产销量的变动率。     

Optimal investment-reinsurance with dynamic risk constraint and regime switching

We study an optimal investment–reinsurance problem for an insurer who faces dynamic risk constraint in a Markovian regime-switching environment. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth. Here the dynamic risk constraint is described by the maximal conditional Value at Risk over different economic states. The rationale is to provide a prudent investment–reinsurance strategy by taking into account the worst case scenario over different economic states. Using the dynamic programming approach, we obtain an analytical solution of the problem when the insurance business is modeled by either the classical Cramer–Lundberg model or its diffusion approximation. We document some important qualitative behaviors of the optimal investment–reinsurance strategies and investigate the impacts of switching regimes and risk constraint on the optimal strategies.     

刑事调解制度在我国构建的文化与理论基础——从构建和谐社会的视角

任何一种法律制度的存在都根植于一定的文化与理论基础之上，刑事调解制度也不例外。研究刑事调解制度构建的文化与理论基础，可以为刑事调解制度的构建提供理论上的支持与制度设计上的参考；而刑事调解制度的成功构建，能够有效地促进我国刑事司法的人性化，更好地推动我国和谐社会的建设与发展。     

The international competitiveness of China’s shipbuilding industry

This paper introduces profit rate as a more relevant measure of international shipbuilding competitiveness. We also develop a model to identify competitiveness factors and their relative importance. Our findings suggest that Chinese competitiveness derives from shipbuilding costs, whereas contract price deviations are the driver for Japan and South Korea. We argue that China became more competitive in building of bulk carriers and tankers than Japan and to a lesser extent than South Korea after year 2000 and that a market trough would further strengthen China’s competitiveness. Our results have broad implications for monitoring industrial performance and formulating competitive strategies for shipyards.     

信息、代理冲突与国有上市银行经理长期激励——基于银行经理企业家能力的分析

构建简单动态模型分析国有上市银行地区(部门)经理的长期激励机制设计问题.模型揭示了颇有意思的含义.企业家才能是银行长期发展的基本诱因.就绩效评估而言,EVA有利于经理做出即期最优投资决策,RAROC有利于银行长期发展.固定报酬合约将诱发地区经理的冒险行为,使贷款超过最优水平;随机支付合约或EVA状态依存支付合约将使总行实现最优贷款规模.EVA为零时,撤销机构、收回贷款权等,可减少当前风险,但使银行失去潜在投资机会.静态看,解雇经理未必获得预期效果;动态看,解雇威胁具有威慑作用,能迫使经理努力工作,增加股东价值.     

Environmental Sustainability Versus Profit Maximization: Overcoming Systemic Constraints on Implementing Normatively Preferable Alternatives

There is a systemic condition inherent in contemporary markets that compel managers not to pursue more morally preferable initiatives if those initiatives will require actions that conflict with profit maximization. Normative arguments for implementing morally preferable practices within the existing system fail because they are insufficient to counter-act the systemic conditions affecting decision-making that is focused on maximizing profit as the primary operational value. To overcome this constraint we must elevate a more normatively preferable value, ‚ideal environmental sustainability,’ to the level of being the primary filtering value through which other competing values are evaluated, prioritized, and implemented. In order for this to occur in practice, a change must be made relative to the laws, rules, and regulations that define and guide the market. This can be done by suitably defining the epistemic constraint of impartiality utilizing Rawls’ notion of a ‚veil of ignorance’ as a heuristic device. John K. Alexander is an Adjunct at Grand Valley State University (Allendale MI) and Grand Rapids Community College (Grand Rapids MI). Areas of interest include Socratic, philosophy, business/organizational ethics, health care ethics, and philosophy of management. He has published papers in HEC Forum, Teaching Philosophy, Philosophy of Management, Journal of Business Ethics and Business Ethics Quarterly. Prior to becoming a visiting professor at GVSU in 2001, he had thirty-five years experience working and managing in foundries.     

考虑有限关注的多个信息交易者竞争交易分析

文章假设在一个具有唯一风险资产的金融市场中，存在多个风险中性的信息交易者、很多噪音交易者、风险中性的做市商三类交易者，其中信息交易者是有限关注的，他们通过权衡关注和竞争两种因素选择交易量。文章首先建立了信息交易者具有不同关注度的一般模型，然后建立了具有相同关注度的模型，通过求解唯一线性均衡，推导它的均衡特征，得出结论：信息交易者的交易强度、期望收益随着其他信息交易者关注度和信息交易者数量的增大而降低，随着自身的关注度的增大而增大；信息交易者数量较少时，期望收益随着信息交易者关注度的增大而增大；而信息交易者数量较多时，期望收益随着信息交易者关注度的增大起初快速增大，然后缓慢降低。     

Discrete-time optimal asset allocation under Higher-Order Hidden Markov Model

This paper studies an optimal portfolio selection problem under a discrete-time Higher-Order Hidden Markov-Modulated Autoregressive (HO-HMMAR) model for price dynamics. By interpreting the hidden states of the modulating higher-order Markov chain as different states of an economic condition, the model discussed here may incorporate the long-term memory of economic states in modeling price dynamics and optimal asset allocation. The estimation of an estimation method based on Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters with a view to reducing numerical redundancy. The asset allocation problem is then discussed in a market with complete information using the standard Bellman's principle and recursive formulas are derived. Numerical results reveal that the HO-HMMAR model may have a slightly better out-of-sample forecasting accuracy than the HMMAR model over a short horizon. The optimal portfolio strategies from the HO-HMMAR model outperform those from the HMMAR model without long-term memory in both real data and simulated data experiments.     

我国银行业高利润的原因分析及展望

2011年,中国商业银行全年净利润破万亿元大关,其利润总和占全球银行业总利润的20%以上,中国工商银行市值全球第一。高额的经营利润引来了多方关注,也出现了银行业"暴利"之说。为一探究竟,本文着眼于分析2011年我国银行业高利润的原因,并结合宏观经济环境,试图找出这些因素在未来的变化趋势,以此推断出未来我国银行业利润增速将有所放缓。基于此结论,对我国银行业未来的发展提出了一些建议。     

宁夏房地产开发企业应对新形势的税务筹划

本文结合宁夏房地产企业税收政策、宏观经济政策,具体阐述了宁夏房地产企业主要税种的税务筹划,以实现企业价值最大化。