The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations

Drawing on recent empirical research, we study whether the international business cycle, as measured in terms of the output gaps of the G7 countries, has out-of-sample predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. To this end, we use a real-time forecasting approach that accounts for model uncertainty and model instability. We find some evidence that the international business cycle has predictive power for gold-price fluctuations. After accounting for transaction costs, a simple trading rule that builds on real-time out-of-sample forecasts does not lead to a superior performance relative to a buy-and-hold strategy. We also suggest a behavioral-finance approach to study the quality of out-of-sample forecasts from the perspective of forecasters with potentially asymmetric loss functions.     

Calling recessions in real time

This paper surveys efforts to automate the dating of business cycle turning points. Doing this on a real time, out-of-sample basis is a bigger challenge than many academics might assume, due to factors such as data revisions and changes in economic relationships over time. The paper stresses the value of both simulated real-time analysis — looking at what the inference of a proposed model would have been using data as they were actually released at the time — and actual real-time analysis, in which a researcher stakes his or her reputation on publicly using the model to generate out-of-sample, real-time predictions. The immediate publication capabilities of the internet make the latter a realistic option for researchers today, and many are taking advantage of it. The paper reviews a number of approaches to dating business cycle turning points and emphasizes the fundamental trade-off between parsimony — trying to keep the model as simple and robust as possible — and making full use of the available information. Different approaches have different advantages, and the paper concludes that there may be gains from combining the best features of several different approaches.     

A duality theory of payment systems

We model the Central Bank’s management of intraday liquidity in modern real-time gross settlement systems as a linear programming problem parameterized by different intraday monetary policies, such as reserve requirements, net debit caps and Lombard loans. We then use duality theory to determine the shadow-prices of constraints of each bank. These shadow-prices can be used by the Central Bank to set personalized intraday monetary policies in order to reduce idleness of money and to give a microfoundation of the too-big-to-fail policy.     

Comments on ‘Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists’

The effects of data revision as removing measurement error on forecast model building is examined. I show various effects on model building using revised or instead real-time data. These effects include lag length selection and measured persistence. I then argue that in practice that one should include the entire dataset available (real-time and past revised data) in forecast construction.     

基于RTLinux的软件无线电侦察预处理系统

本文讨论案例是一起美国司法审查介入涉及中国产品的反倾销调查的案件。通过对该案的基本案情和法院判案分析的讨论,目的在于使我国政府和企业能更好把握美国反倾销法和反倾销调查程序的细节,更有效地应对美国对我国出口产品的反倾销指控。     

Real-time relief distribution in the aftermath of disasters – A rolling horizon approach

This paper presents a rolling horizon-based framework for real-time relief distribution in the aftermath of disasters. This framework consists of two modules. One is a state estimation and prediction module, which predicts relief demands and delivery times. The other is a relief distribution module, which solves for optimal relief distribution flows. The goal is to minimize the total time to deliver relief goods to satisfy the demand, considering uncertain data and of the risk-averse attitude of the decision-maker. A numerical example based on the large-scale earthquake that occurred on September 21, 1999 in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the system.     

Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast

Recently, Patton and Timmermann (2012) proposed a more powerful kind of forecast efficiency regression at multiple horizons, and showed that it provides evidence against the efficiency of the Fed’s Greenbook forecasts. I use their forecast efficiency evaluation to propose a method for adjusting the Greenbook forecasts. Using this method in a real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercise, I find that it provides modest improvements in the accuracies of the forecasts for the GDP deflator and CPI, but not for other variables. The improvements are statistically significant in some cases, with magnitudes of up to 18% in root mean square prediction error.     

双星快速定位通信系统中心站实时控制系统

本文阐述了双星快速定位通信系统(国外称RDSS)中心站中心控制计算机系统在系统中的主要功能、计算机通信的格式、该系统的功能物理模型分析以及相应的软硬件的开发。文中着重阐述了用软件工程开发较大型应用工程软件系统的方法和经验(结构化分析和结构化设计方法)。     

“信息港湾”系统研发与应用

自主开发的“信息港湾”系统，主要满足酒店、宾馆、医院、学校等行业客户的通信业务实时计费结帐的需求。该系统涵盖了固定电话、小灵通和宽带三大主营业务，实现了多种不同的话费查询方式。     

Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters

This paper examines the forecasting of growth cycle turning points by comparing the performances of US and Japanese professional forecasters with those of a simple time-series model, using real-time data. The empirical results, obtained after performing contingency table analyses and visual inspections, indicate that the US professional forecasters considerably outperform the simple time-series model; however, the Japanese professional forecaster is comparable to the simple time-series model in the visual inspections of major turning points.