Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression

Economic variables usually follow a dynamic trend pattern. However, it is difficult to estimate this trend precisely as numerous economically- and statistically-based estimation methods exist. This contribution proposes a data-driven nonparametric trend that is local polynomial, to improve arbitrary trend estimations of commonly used methods concerning the selection of the smoothing parameter and the dependence structure. An iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm determines the bandwidth endogenously and allows a theory-based interpretation of the length of growth processes. This length of the bandwidth reflects the lengths of the steady state periods. Consequently, the bandwidth identifies the time period of stable economic conditions and can detect economic changes. To demonstrate the power of this estimation approach, an extensive simulation study is performed. Furthermore, examples using US and UK GDP data along with a guide for the optimal choice of algorithms for empirical applications are provided. This proposed method yields new insights for growth dynamics, cyclical movements and their dependence.     

Frustration-driven process improvement

When employees are empowered to continuously record their employment-related frustrations—doing so on accessible, visually prominent media—process improvement becomes upgraded to operate in a truly continuous mode. Frustrations are a superior target of process improvement in that they get at deep-seated concerns of people who have first-order process awareness and are most directly impacted by process failings. Recording frustrations not only provides a sound basis for pressing on to solutions, but it is also cathartic. The act of recording frustrations prominently on company-sanctioned media provides a positive outlet for the frustrations themselves.     

Could lean practices and process innovation enhance supply chain sustainability of small and medium‐sized enterprises?

Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) adopt lean practices (LP) to reduce waste across their organisational value chain, which helps achieve sustainability. Process innovation (PI) has also been applied through cleaner production, environmental management system, ecodesign, and so on to address both customers' needs and legislations by policymakers. Although prior studies reveal the effect of sustainable practices, LP, and PI on sustainable performance separately, less is known on the integrated effect of them on sustainability performance. Moreover, studies on mediating effect of LP and PI on sustainability performance are scant. This is significant as LP and PI are considered to be the enablers for achieving sustainability performance. This research addresses this knowledge gap. The research first theorises a model integrating these four major constructs (sustainability practices, LP, PI, and sustainability performance) through hypotheses development. Subsequently, using structural equation modelling, it is tested whether each of sustainability practices, LP, and PI effect sustainability performances. Additionally, mediating effect of LP and PI between sustainability practices and performances is derived. The study uses data from 119 SMEs within manufacturing industries in the Midlands, United Kingdom. Further, a few case studies have been undertaken to validate the findings from quantitative analysis. The overall results show that although sustainability practices, LP, and PI help achieve sustainability performance of SMEs supply chain through efficiency and responsiveness respectively, the mediating effect LP is more compared with PI. Moreover, SMEs adopt LP when they are economy focused and implement PI when they are pressurised by customers and/or policymakers.     

Sustainable Entrepreneurship: A Convergent Process Model

Sustainable entrepreneurship pursues a triple bottom line approach of economic, social and ecological goals. The main aim of this paper is to add to our understanding of the process of sustainable entrepreneurship. Since the field of sustainable entrepreneurship is in a nascent stage, we conduct a qualitative study. We employ a multiple case study design to build theory. Based on four case studies we develop a model, which describes the process of sustainable entrepreneurship, including six phases: 1) recognizing a social or ecological problem; 2) recognizing a social or ecological opportunity; 3) developing a double bottom line solution; 4) developing a triple bottom line solution; 5) funding and forming of a sustainable enterprise; 6) creating or entering a sustainable market. By developing a convergent process model with two pathways, we make theoretical contributions to the emerging fields of sustainable entrepreneurship and social entrepreneurship. A key finding is that the triple bottom line of ecological, social and economic goals is integrated sequentially, not simultaneously. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模过程评价框架研究

文章从多分辨率交通仿真的建模过程入手,研究了系统仿真的校核、验证与确认(Verification Validation Accreditation,VVA)过程评价的原理。在此基础上,提出了基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模的过程评价框架。通过研究仿真系统生命周期中的一系列活动来评价研究结果的正确性和有效性,提高了系统的可信性,使仿真系统能够满足实际应用的需要。     

Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

An information-theoretic approach for forecasting interval-valued SP500 daily returns

We develop an iterative and efficient information-theoretic estimator for forecasting interval-valued data, and use our estimator to forecast the SP500 returns up to five days ahead using moving windows. Our forecasts are based on 13 years of data. We show that our estimator is superior to its competitors under all of the common criteria that are used to evaluate forecasts of interval data. Our approach differs from other methods that are used to forecast interval data in two major ways. First, rather than applying the more traditional methods that use only certain moments of the intervals in the estimation process, our estimator uses the complete sample information. Second, our method simultaneously selects the model (or models) and infers the model’s parameters. It is an iterative approach that imposes minimal structure and statistical assumptions.     

润肤霜的制备工艺及其性能研究

使用混合膜生成法和瞬间成皂法配制润肤霜,论文通过单因素试验法探究了1618醇的含量、乳化温度和乳化时间对润肤霜性能的影响。通过对试验数据进行分析得出如下结论:1618醇含量为4.0%、乳化温度为75~80℃、乳化时间为7~9min时产品质量合格,满足QB/T 1857—2013《润肤膏霜》中对性能的要求。     

Policy Dimensions of Progressive Institutional Change: Lessons from China’s Construction of a Socialist Market Economy

Abstract:

Through a comprehensive review of the progressive institutional change (PIC) literature, I first discuss four possible trajectories of PIC by considering the forces of societal reaction that might frame the path, as well as the scale and scope of the changes. Thus, I pose four questions that need to be asked when related policies are formulated for PIC. To illustrate this method, I scrutinize the evidence from the construction of a socialist market economy by the Chinese government since the 1980s and argue that related policies have successfully promoted PIC from three dimensions: (1) curbing potential conflicts with power groups; (2) promoting a sense of awareness among stakeholders; and (3) minimizing disturbances to the community. Actually, the related changes demonstrate a dynamic “displacement process” for PICs. Despite the success of this sociosystem, it is found that the sustaining of PIC which requires policy factors that enhance instrumental efficiency in the Chinese context will serve as a challenge to the Chinese government ahead.