浅谈核心企业的价值链分析

通过对核心企业上下游价值链的分析,使我们以新的视角看待影响企业成本的因素,找到了与以往不同的降低成本的途径。希望通过本文的分析能为企业降低成本提高竞争力提供新的思路。     

Demographic shift, relative costs and the allocation of local public consumption in Norway

Local government responses to shifting demand and supply conditions are investigated. The desired allocation of local public consumption is determined in a voter group decision model where different age groups compete for services within an exogenous budget constraint. The model is implemented in an AIDS demand system built into a partial adjustment framework. The estimates indicate that the dramatic shift in the age composition of the population from the young to the elderly during the period studied has led to higher educational spending per pupil and less health care services per elderly. Age groups in decline are able to resist reallocations and gain in terms of spending per head.     

论国际资本流动的货币冲击效应

在我国现行的有管理浮动汇率制度下，国际资本流动通过储备资产的变动、资本外逃等途径对中央银行基础货币投放量发生冲击，这种冲击影响着货币政策的有效性，为增强中央银行对货币供应量的控制能力，应该从操作资产、操作目标、操作手段三个方面改善公开市场业务，提高冲销操作的有效性。     

Bayesian time series analysis of periodic behaviour and spectral structure

Analysis, model selection and forecasting in univariate time series models can be routinely carried out for models in which the model order is relatively small. Under an ARMA assumption, classical estimation, model selection and forecasting can be routinely implemented with the Box–Jenkins time domain representation. However, this approach becomes at best prohibitive and at worst impossible when the model order is high. In particular, the standard assumption of stationarity imposes constraints on the parameter space that are increasingly complex. One solution within the pure AR domain is the latent root factorization in which the characteristic polynomial of the AR model is factorized in the complex domain, and where inference questions of interest and their solution are expressed in terms of the implied (reciprocal) complex roots; by allowing for unit roots, this factorization can identify any sustained periodic components. In this paper, as an alternative to identifying periodic behaviour, we concentrate on frequency domain inference and parameterize the spectrum in terms of the reciprocal roots, and, in addition, incorporate Gegenbauer components. We discuss a Bayesian solution to the various inference problems associated with model selection involving a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis. One key development presented is a new approach to forecasting that utilizes a Metropolis step to obtain predictions in the time domain even though inference is being carried out in the frequency domain. This approach provides a more complete Bayesian solution to forecasting for ARMA models than the traditional approach that truncates the infinite AR representation, and extends naturally to Gegenbauer ARMA and fractionally differenced models.     

A Partially Observed Model for Micromovement of Asset Prices with Bayes Estimation via Filtering

A general micromovement model that describes transactional price behavior is proposed. The model ties the sample characteristics of micromovement and macromovement in a consistent manner. An important feature of the model is that it can be transformed to a filtering problem with counting process observations. Consequently, the complete information of price and trading time is captured and then utilized in Bayes estimation via filtering for the parameters. The filtering equations are derived. A theorem on the convergence of conditional expectation of the model is proved. A consistent recursive algorithm is constructed via the Markov chain approximation method to compute the approximate posterior and then the Bayes estimates. A simplified model and its recursive algorithm are presented in detail. Simulations show that the computed Bayes estimates converge to their true values. The algorithm is applied to one month of intraday transaction prices for Microsoft and the Bayes estimates are obtained.     

企业横向并购后的内部供应链整合

横向并购已经成为企业快速扩张的一种有效手段，而内部供应链的整合将会决定横向并购行为的成败。横向并购后的企业为避免原有的两条供应链各自为战，并且为整合外部供应链打下基础，必须进行内部供应链的整合。通过运用业务流程再造、采用先进的预测方法、采用供应商管理库存以及延迟产品差异化等策略可以实现提高内部供应链效率和响应速度，提升供应链柔性的内部供应链整合目的。     

论安全食品供应链管理

本文提出安全食品供应链管理是保障食品安全的重要途径,并从以下几方面来讨论安全食品供应链管理:食品供应链管理的必要性;食品供应链设计的基本要求;目前我国食品供应链的特性分析;食品供应链的优化管理方法。     

单端反激式开关电源的分析与设计

本文讨论了单端反激式开关电源的两种工作状态:恒压输出状态和恒功率输出状态。推导出两种工作状态下的输出电压表达式,以及工作在恒压状态下所需满足的不等式。最后举例说明三路输出单端反激式开关电源的设计。     

供应链管理影响因素及评价指标分析

本文认为,供应链凝聚、信息获取能力、区位优势以及信息共享是影响供应链管理成功的四个主要因素,对这四个变量难以直接进行测量。供应链管理成功影响因素测评指标体系是一个多指标的结构,运用层次化结构设定测评指标,从而清晰地表述供应链管理成功影响因素测评指标体系的内涵。供应链管理成功影响因素是总的测评目标,为一级指标,即第一层次;供应链管理成功影响因素中的供应链凝聚、区位优势、信息获取能力、信息共享等四大要素为二级指标,即第二层次;根据各要素的含义和内容,将四大要素(二级指标)展开为具体的三级指标,即第三层次。