银行卡支付平台竞争绩效及其生存区间分析

银行卡支付平台具有双边市场属性，其交叉网络外部性强度深刻地影响着整个电子支付行业竞争格局。研究采用一个两阶段博弈模型分析银行卡支付平台竞争绩效及其生存区间，结果表明“赢者通吃”并非银行卡市场的常态，平台共存的条件在于交叉网络外部性要么足够大，要么就是足够小。     

The effects of loyalty programs on customer lifetime duration and share of wallet

In the retailing sector, consumers typically patronize multiple outlets, which confronts these outlets with an important issue: determining how to gain a greater part of consumer expenditures. One potential avenue is to increase consumer lifetime duration and repeat purchases through loyalty cards. This research, using BehaviorScan single-source panel data, examines the impact of loyalty programs on customer lifetime duration in grocery stores. The findings suggest that loyalty schemes have positive effects on customer lifetimes and share of consumer expenditures. However, multiple loyalty card memberships of geographically close retailers reduce lifetime duration. Furthermore, the higher the share of consumer expenditures in a store, the longer the lifetime duration will be.     

Understanding early diffusion of digital wireless phones

There is increasing empirical evidence from academic research and strong recognition among policymakers that wide diffusion and innovative uses of digital wireless phones are important sources of a country's economic growth and social development. Adopters do not necessarily adopt digital wireless phones at the same time though. Although the diffusion of innovation theory suggests five adopter categories according to their degree of innovativeness, this approach lacks theoretical justification and, more importantly, it makes a critical assumption of a normal distribution of adopters that needs empirical validation. This study investigates the basis for defining different adopter categories and factors that affect adoption decisions of digital wireless phones using the aggregate data on 46 developed and developing countries from 1992 to 2002. This paper utilizes a two-step analysis approach. The first step evaluates the distribution of adopters over time using various diffusion models. The second step uses iterative survival analysis to examine the patterns of influential factors on adoption behavior by evaluating the survival models using a 1% increment of cumulative penetration as the targeted events. The results of the best-fitting diffusion models indicate that digital wireless phone adoption patterns did not follow a normal distribution and did not map exactly into Rogers’ five adopter categories. The results from the iterative survival analysis suggest four adopter categories (innovators, early adopters, breakthrough adopters, and mainstream adopters) among the first 30% of adopters. Different factors are observed to influence various adopter categories’ adoption decisions. The results offer insights to support telecommunication operators to develop strategies to attract these adopters. It also supports policymakers’ efforts to design effective regulatory frameworks.     

Die another day: duration in German import trade

International trade patterns at the product level are surprisingly dynamic. The majority of trade relationships exist for just a few, often only one to three, years. In this paper, I examine empirically the duration in German import trade at the 8-digit product level from 1995 to 2005. I find that survival probabilities are affected by exporter characteristics, product type and market structure. Specifically, I show that the duration of exporting a product to Germany is longer for products obtained from countries that are economically large and geographically close to Germany; for products with large trade value and a low elasticity of substitution; and for trade pairs that command a large share of the German import market and are characterized by two-way trade.

Foreign Ownership,Competition, and Survival Dynamics

The impact of foreign direct investment on host countries’ industrial sectors has received considerable attention. It is shown by many researchers that foreign plants are more productive than are domestic ones, but the empirical evidence regarding spillovers is not unambiguous. In this paper, we suggest that the impact of foreign direct investment on local industry hinges on the dynamics of foreign and domestic plants—i.e., on entry and selection (exit) processes. Our analysis of foreign investment and competition dynamics in Turkish manufacturing industry for the period 1983–2001 indicates that foreign plants have a better performance level than do domestic ones when they are first established in the local market, and, subsequently, are more likely to survive but; the difference in survival probabilities disappears when the industry and/or plant characteristics are controlled for. Moreover, foreign presence seems to have no long-term effect on the survival prospects of domestic plants.      

The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution

This paper examines the longevity of entrants. We find size to be an important determinant of the chances of survival, this being particularly relevant to de novo entrants as compared with entry by established firms. Current size is also found to be a better predictor of failure than initial size. Moreover, our findings indicate that, after controlling for size differences, past growth matters for survival suggesting a partial adjustment process for firm size in the post entry period. Finally, new plants are more likely to live longer if they enter growing industries or industries with little entry activity.     

A behavioural analysis of the subsistence standard of living

Subsistence is analysed as an endogenous variable, contraryto its conventional exogenous treatment. It is postulated thatthe subsistence-livers perceive their own standard of subsistence,direct their earnings behaviour towards attaining, maintainingor exceeding this standard and, thus, reveal the standard throughthis behaviour. The labour supply function of the working poor,which displays a forward-falling segment at low wages and anupward-rising segment at higher wages, is hypothesised to offermeasures of subsistence and survival standards. The conceptsare rationalised using Sen's concept of ‘freedom of choice’and Arrow's concept of ‘freedom as flexibility’.It is argued that at below-subsistence living, individuals lackfreedom of flexibility in choosing their preferences and thussuffer the loss of freedom of choice—while subsistenceoffers a reasonable minimum of this freedom, the freedom iscompletely lost at the lowest survival standard.     

An Empirical Investigation of Firm Longevity: A Model of the Ex Ante Predictors of Financial Distress

Empirical models of a potential failure process that incorporate distress states between the extremes of corporate health and bankruptcy are uncommon. We depict financial distress as a series of financial events that reflect varied stages of corporate adversity. Our intent is to provide information regarding the influence of certain risk dimensions and firm-specific attributes on distressed firm survival over time. Within a theorized distress framework, we utilize the techniques of survival analysis to longitudinally track firms, grouped a priori according to an initial decline in operating cash flows. We find that the event of default has a significant positive association with business failure. Further, we document that the significant accounting covariates tend to change conditional on a firm having progressed through the diverse stages of distress. These findings accentuate the heterogeneous nature of financial distress and potential business failure.     

Asymptotically optimal nonparametric one- and two-way analysis of variance tests for the log linear model under censoring

We considerr ×c populations with failure ratesλ _ij(t) satisfying the condition

Firm survival: methods and evidence

This paper surveys the Industrial Organization literature on firm survival. We find that, in retrospect, the econometric specifications used in this area have progressively become more sophisticated, addressing issues such as discrete time, unobserved heterogeneity and competing risks. We also identify a number of firm- and industry-specific covariates that provide largely consistent results across samples, countries and periods. On the other hand, the evidence is less clear-cut with regard to ownership and spatial factors.