贸易关系持续时间的研究进展

双边贸易中贸易零值的大量存在引发了学者们对贸易持续时间影响因素的特别关注。贸易关系的持续时间从一个新视角研究了贸易的动态行为,是贸易增长中集约边际的重要组成部分,较长的贸易持续时间可以促进贸易的持续平稳发展。本文从贸易关系持续时间的特征事实、理论解释、计量模型的选取及影响因素分析等四个方面对相关文献进行了梳理,对比和评析了相关研究的结论与方法,在此基础上得出了启示及未来研究方向。     

The Dynamics of Firm Growth and Survival Under Alternative Forms of Control

The publication of the passive learning model of Jovanovic [Jovanic, B., "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, 1982, 60, 649–670.] initiated a resurgence of interest in firm growth and survival processes. Yet all the recent work has focused on the profit maximizing firm, without considering how robust the results are to alternative forms of control. This paper applies the model to the case of the labour managed firm, a type of firm studied extensively for its divergent behaviour from profit maximising firms. The findings indicate that Jovanovic's key predictions are rendered indeterminate under labour management, although there is evidence to show that the actual empirical relationships continue to hold. In considering possible explanations for the breakdown of the results, we conclude that the Jovanovic model overemphasizes institutional structure to the neglect of more fundamental determinants of growth and survival.midt, Paul Geroski and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and discussions. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Transactional and institutional alignment of entry modes in transition economies. A survival analysis of joint ventures and wholly owned subsidiaries in Vietnam

How do partially aligned entry modes predicted through theoretically pluralistic frameworks perform in terms of longevity? We build on transaction costs and neo-institutional economics and use event history method and Vietnamese data on 3835 joint ventures and wholly owned subsidiaries established by foreign firms from 1987 to 2008 to answer this question. We find that survival rates for entry modes that are partially aligned to transactional and institutional factors differ for JV- and WOS-based entries. We provide new evidence for the predictive power of the transactional and institutional approach for entry mode choice, performance, and survival in transition economies.     

Corporate Governance,Agility, and Survival

Abstract

Most corporate research has focused on (i) dimensions of governance that are relatively easy to measure (e.g., ownership structure, boards of directors, and executive compensation) and (ii) the role that governance arrangements play in mitigating agency costs. This paper takes an evolutionary perspective to corporate governance in which the concept of corporate agility, i.e., the ease with which firms adapt to changes in their respective environments, plays a prominent role. I argue that decentralization, which is understudied in the literature, promotes agility and predict that it is directly related to corporate performance and survival during periods of rapidly changing environments. The paper also discusses how some governance features that often are viewed through the lens of either mitigating or exacerbating agency costs are cast in a different light when their effects on corporate agility are considered.     

Drug competition and voluntary exit

We use a duration model to find evidence that drug exit is exacerbated by generic competition. However, the impact on drug exit of competition with other branded drugs within a drug's therapeutic class is not statistically significant.     

劳动供给剩余条件下的比较优势理论质疑

比较优势理论自提出以来,一直是世界各国进行国际贸易,获取经济利益,推行贸易自由化的核心理论,主流经济学将比较优势理论作为各国参与世界分工的理论基础。但是现实中一国在存在劳动力供给剩余的条件下按照比较优势理论却未取得经济的进步与增长,从而引发对该理论有效性的争论。本文试图在分析劳动供给剩余条件下比较优势理论对一国国际贸易的影响,提出在劳动供给剩余条件下,比较优势理论与一定的保护贸易存在某种内在的联系。     

延长企业生存时间：单向贸易还是“双向国际化”？

对应2000-2006年中国工业企业与中国海关进出口数据库对应数据,对企业同时进出口即“双向国际化”相比单向贸易行为更有助于延长生存时间进行实证检验。描述性统计、生存与危险函数检验结果表明,我国“双向国际化”、非加工贸易、东部、外资与港澳台工业企业的生存概率更高;cox、weibull生存分析及二值模型检验结果同样指出“双向国际化”较单向贸易行为更有利于延长经营寿命,其中“双向国际化”相比单向进口企业的生存时间更具优势,且贸易模式、所处地区、企业性质不同给企业生存时间带来的差异影响与前文分析结论保持一致。     

Book Reviews

Self-consistent (SC) iterative algorithms will be proposed to non-parametrically estimate the cause-specific cumulative incidence functions in a multiple decrement, doubly censored context. Double censoring is defined to include both left and right censored observations, in addition to exact observations. The algorithms are a generalization of the classical univariate algorithms of Efron and Turnbull. Unlike any previous competing risk models proposed in the literature to date, the proposed algorithms will be fully non-parametric while also explicitly allowing for the possibility of masked modes of failure, whereby failure is known only to occur due to a subset from the set of all possible causes. In short, the method is useful in any actuarial application that encounters censored and/or masked risks. The paper concludes by showing how the method can be applied to employee benefits modeling.     

Foreign versus Domestic Survival in a Changing Environment

This paper explores whether and how environmental dynamics can affect foreign and domestic survival. Utilizing a unique longitudinal data set with 420 manufacturing plants created in the protected developing Greek economy (1960–1980), we test these plants’ ability to survive in the new, integrated environment (1981–2001), when Greece became a member of the European Union (EU). After controlling for time and age effects, we find that environmental dynamics in terms of integration and economic development negatively influence the survival of all tariff-jumping and unskilled labor-intensive plants, regardless of their ownership. However, survival evolution of foreign-owned and domestic plants differs over time depending on the country’s degree of economic integration. Specifically, during the shallow integration period (1981–1990), foreign-controlled plants tend to retain a survival premium, which they appear to have acquired in the protectionism era. This means that foreign-owned plants benefited more from external environmental dynamics in terms of tariff protection compared to domestic ones. Nevertheless, in the deep integration period (1991–2001), the declining survival rates tend to converge, and the foreign survival premium completely disappears. Consequently, in the long run, environmental change similarly affects foreign and domestic survival.     

Pricing Continuously Monitored Barrier Options under the SABR Model: A Closed-Form Approximation

The stochastic alpha beta rho (SABR) model introduced by Hagan et al. (2002) is widely used in both fixed income and the foreign exchange (FX) markets. Continuously monitored barrier option contracts are among the most popular derivative contracts in the FX markets. In this paper, we develop closed-form formulas to approximate various types of barrier option prices (down-and-out/in, up-and-out/in) under the SABR model. We first derive an approximate formula for the survival density. The barrier option price is the one-dimensional integral of its payoff function and the survival density, which can be easily implemented and quickly evaluated. The approximation error of the survival density is also analyzed. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that analytical (approximate) formulas for the survival density and the barrier option prices for the SABR model are derived. Numerical experiments demonstrate the validity and efficiency of these formulas.