Survival auctions

Dynamic clock auctions with drop-out information typically yield outcomes closer to equilibrium predictions than do comparable sealed-bid auctions. However, clock auctions require congregating bidders for a fixed time interval, which has limited field applicability and introduces inefficiencies of its own given the time cost of congregating bidders. In this experiment we explore the effects of removing these inefficiencies through survival auctions—a multi-round sealed-bid auction which is theoretically isomorphic to the dynamic clock auction with drop-out information. Kagel’s research was partially supported by National Science Foundation Grants No. 0136925 and 0136928. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. We thank the associate editor, an anonymous referee, seminar participants at Purdue University, especially Tim Cason, participants at International Industrial Organization April 2004 Conference, the ESA June 2003 meetings, and our discussant, Tim Salmon, for valuable comments. Kirill Chernomaz provided valuable research assistance. The usual caveat applies.     

微观金融健康可以提高企业的生存率吗?——“新常态”背景下经济持续健康发展的微观视角解读

本文选取2003~2007年中国制造业771434家样本企业建立微观面板数据,采用生存分析中的互补双对数模型,深入考察企业微观金融健康对企业生存的潜在决定性影响;同时又根据中国企业出口高参与度这一典型特征事实,进一步考虑了企业的国际化成长在上述影响中的调节作用;最后又根据中国企业所有制特点考察了不同所有制类型企业的这种作用关系的差异。结果表明,企业的微观金融健康状况对其存活率有着显著的正面影响。进一步细分所有制类型的分类分析表明,国有和非国有两类企业各自的国际化成长,通过不同的微观金融健康指标进一步显著降低了企业经营失败的概率。在此基础上,针对当前"新常态"背景下如何提高中国企业的市场生存能力、实现企业的可持续健康发展,提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis

Companies often suffer periods of financial distress before filing for bankruptcy. Unlike one-off bankruptcies, financial distress can occur repeatedly within the same individual firm. This paper is focused on the recurrence of financial distress and studies the Chinese stock market, where Special Treatment – an official indicator of financial distress – can be repeatedly applied to a listed company. We employ a stratified hazard model to predict the probability of subsequent distress with variables, including duration dependency, event-based factors, institutional variables, financial ratios, market-based variables and macroeconomic conditions. Our empirical results show that accounting and market-based variables have limited power in predicting the recurrence of distress, whereas the duration of recovery, restructuring events and their interaction terms with the accounting and macroeconomic factors affect the recurrent risk significantly. Tested on out-of-time samples, our proposed hazard models show a robust performance in the prediction of recurrent risk over time.     

The effects of land use planning on housing spread: A case study in the region of Brest,France

This work provides a long-term study of housing development in the Brest region (France). Its main objective is to test the efficiency of the French laws and of urban planning bylaws to control housing development in the coastal zone. Based on the yearly status of available plots, a panel longitudinal analysis (1968–2009) is developed. It combines survival analyses with spatial-temporal diffusion indices, to assess their joint effects on the urban form evolution considering accessibility, proximity, spatial contiguity, temporal continuity, edge waves versus leapfrog growth, etc. That allows testing hypotheses about the diffusion processes, and the achievement of sustainable urbanism to increase density, promote adjacency and avoid urban sprawl and its detrimental effects on the environment and climate. The main finding is that national laws need land planning to deploy locally and that municipalities and stakeholders still prefer economic development over environmental conservation. That is putting emphasis on a restricted (short term) view of sustainable development.     

An evolutionary model of the size distribution of firms

An analytical study of the evolution of the distribution of firm size in an industry is presented. A drift-diffusion model is proposed to express the time-evolution of density of firm size within the industry. The model blends the conventional, more or less static, determinants with the kinds of dynamic considerations introduced by stochastic processes of evolutionary dynamics. The steady-state distribution as well as the dynamic behavior of the model are derived. Parameters in the resulting analytical expressions are then fit to a population of firms in the non-manufacturing service sector. The empirical portion of the paper validates the proposed evolutionary model.     

Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models

We present discrete time survival models of borrower default for credit cards that include behavioural data about credit card holders and macroeconomic conditions across the credit card lifetime. We find that dynamic models which include these behavioural and macroeconomic variables provide statistically significant improvements in model fit, which translate into better forecasts of default at both account and portfolio levels when applied to an out-of-sample data set. By simulating extreme economic conditions, we show how these models can be used to stress test credit card portfolios.     

经济危机下中小企业的生存之道

经济危机下,中小企业的生存和发展受到了很大的影响,中小企业如何依靠自身有限的资源,化解通胀、资源匮乏等多重压力,以全新的面貌和良好的企业环境立于市场而不败,并逐渐壮大自己,是中小企业必须面对和要解决的紧迫问题。     

由生存经济看农村高利贷的表达与实践

本来是一个纯经济现象的高利贷问题,在文化与政治因素介入后,变成了一个复杂的意识形态问题.文化和政治对高利贷的"表达",深刻地影响了高利贷发展的"实践".明清以来的经验显示,高利贷本是一种生存借贷,置农村生存经济状态于不顾的单方面打击高利贷活动,不仅不能根除高利贷产生的土壤,反而加剧了高利贷的风险溢价,降低了小农的信贷可得性,恶化了小农的信贷状况.实际上,小农在借贷活动中,关心的主要是信贷可得性和利息额问题,而不是通常认为的利息率问题.对高利贷问题的不适当"表达",不利于农村融资问题的解决.让农民走出生存经济状况,才能根除高利贷产生的土壤.在仍处于发展中的小农经济状态时,不应将小农的生产借贷也推向生存借贷市场,加大农户的借贷成本,使得正常的生产性投资也难以进行,政策重点在于扶持农村的生产性借贷,千方百计地扩大小农的信贷可得性,并充分利用传统民间金融手段,而不是一味打击所谓的"高利贷".     

中国对外直接投资促进抑或抑制了企业出口？

2001年以来中国对外直接投资实现了持续快速的增长,本文旨在考察对外直接投资究竟对企业出口产生了怎样的影响。利用高度细化的工业企业数据库和海关贸易数据库首次从微观层面进行系统的研究,结果表明,对外直接投资不仅显著地提高了企业出口占销售的比例,而且还提高了企业出口的概率。此外,通过引入生存分析模型的研究表明,对外直接投资显著降低了企业退出出口市场的风险率,即倾向于延长企业出口持续期。本文从微观层面证实了中国企业对外直接投资具有显著的出口创造效应,这一核心结论在剔除贸易中间商、排除加工贸易、剔除投资于避税港的企业以及采用最近邻匹配样本进行估计时都非常稳健。     

马克思现代性批判思想的生态意蕴

现代性问题以人的生存悖论方式显现出来。从现代性批判的角度看,马克思思想中蕴涵着深刻的生态意蕴,这不仅体现在马克思对人与自然辨证关系的解读和异化劳动思想之中,也体现于马克思对资本的批判之中。这些思想为我们正确解读人与自然辩证关系和把握生态危机根源提供了理论资源。