The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms

Extant empirical evidence indicates that the proportion of firms going public prior to achieving profitability has been increasing over time. This phenomenon is largely driven by an increase in the proportion of technology firms going public. Since there is considerable uncertainty regarding the long-term economic viability of these firms at the time of going public, identifying factors that influence their ability to attain key post-IPO milestones such as achieving profitability represents an important area of research. We employ a theoretical framework built around agency and signaling considerations to identify factors that influence the probability and timing of post-IPO profitability of Internet IPO firms. We estimate Cox Proportional Hazards models to test whether factors identified by our theoretical framework significantly impact the probability of post-IPO profitability as a function of time. We find that the probability of post-IPO profitability increases with pre-IPO investor demand and change in ownership at the IPO of the top officers and directors. On the other hand, the probability of post-IPO profitability decreases with the venture capital participation, proportion of outsiders on the board, and pre-market valuation uncertainty.     

The dynamic nature of survival determinants in e-commerce

The dynamic effects of survival determinants in e-commerce are tested using longitudinal data on 460 e-tailers. This is achieved through the incorporation of both time-varying covariates and coefficients in a discrete hazard rate model. The model includes elements of competitive strategy, industry structure, firm and product characteristics, and the macro environment. The study demonstrates the changing effect over time of factors affecting survival. For example, order of entry advantages are observed, but they are short-lived. This finding shows that e-tailers cannot rely on early entry as a strategic move in the long run. E-tailers with more media presence seem to survive longer. Being publicly traded and selling products with digital characteristics present advantages for e-tailers only in the beginning years, but they are not sustainable over long time periods. Survival chances decrease with higher competitive density, market growth rate, and equity market level at the time of entry. Conversely, economic growth tends to increase survival chances. The study also finds an inverted-U relationship between the hazard of exit and firm age. The conclusion section discusses the implications of the time-varying nature of survival determinants.     

Rating Migrations: The Effect of History and Time

We examine the effect of rating history and the passage of time on the rating migration hazard for corporate debt issuers. Controlling for industry effects and the evolution of business and political cycles, the results consistently show that the next change of rating depends more strongly on rating history than it does on the current rating. However, there are significant interactions between the main effects of rating history and the duration of the current rating. The result is substantial decay in the effects of rating history the longer a rating remains unchanged. This decay effect is stronger for downgrades and for ratings in the speculative category.     

Survival in the lodging sector: An analysis at the firm and location levels

this paper studies the determinants of survival of 6494 Spanish hotel firms located in 97 national tourist destinations in the period 2005–2011. The characteristics of the firms and the tourist destinations where they are located have been studied through survival analysis techniques. This is relevant because the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the Spanish lodging sector has shown different effects among tourist destinations. The results confirm that the location significantly affects the probability of survival. In particular, the main determinant of firm survival is the level of occupancy in a tourist destination which has a positive effect. Also, we have found that a low level of competition reduces the average expected survival while the average profitability of a tourist destination has a positive effect on firm survival. Finally, the total effect related to destinations factors can reduce the expected survival by up to 90% (hazard ratio).     

Rapid capacity expansions and failure: A trap for new airline entrants?

This paper investigates whether fast capacity expansions as a means to narrow cost differentials between a de novo airline entrant and established incumbents helps or hinders the survival of the entrant. Evidence from a longitudinal sample of new entrants in the European passenger airline industry showed that these firms exhibited higher failure risks after rapidly expanding capacity. Further, high product market overlap with an established incumbent reduced the probability of new entrants undertaking such expansions, in turn reducing the probability of failure.     

Price impact and portfolio impact

We study survival, price impact, and portfolio impact in heterogeneous economies. We show that, under the equilibrium risk-neutral measure, long-run price impact is in fact equivalent to survival, whereas long-run portfolio impact is equivalent to survival under an agent-specific, wealth-forward measure. These results allow us to show that price impact and portfolio impact are two independent concepts: a nonsurviving agent with no long-run price impact can have a significant long-run impact on other agents' optimal portfolios.     

东亚国家钉住汇率制度的可持续性研究

本文运用生存分析法，对东亚9国近60年钉住汇率制度的可持续性进行了实证研究。结果表明，东亚国家维持稳定的钉住汇率制度的总“生存时间”至多为51年，其影响因素主要是国内经济变量，故一国若要实现钉住汇率制度的维持与存续，需要保持相对较低的物价和利率水平，以及相对较高的货币供给增长率和国内信贷水平。     

Globally evolutionarily stable portfolio rules

The paper examines a dynamic model of a financial market with endogenous asset prices determined by short-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an investor to “survive,” i.e., to accumulate in the long run a positive share of market wealth, regardless of the initial state of the market. It is shown that there is a unique portfolio rule with this property—an analogue of the famous Kelly rule of “betting your beliefs.” A game theoretic interpretation of this result is given.     

Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis

This paper studies the determinants of individual bank failures and M&A processes in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s. Using bank-specific data we estimate competing risk hazards models and find that while profitability and capitalization are the most important determinants of the probability of failing, a bank's size, efficiency and capitalization are the main determinants of the probability of participating in an integration process. All else constant, an increase in capitalization reduces the probability of disappearing, whether due to the occurrence of bankruptcy, a merge or an acquisition. However, a marginal increase in capitalization reduces the probability of bankruptcy significantly more than the probability of integration. This study is the first to present a competing risks hazard model to identify covariates that excerpt significant influence on the probability of failing or merging for banks of an emerging economy.     

目的国制度质量与企业出口生存：来自中国的证据

本文使用2000~2005年中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库,从制度质量的角度,描述了出口企业在目的国的动态特征;采用企业-时间固定效应和赫克曼两步法两种方法,研究企业在目的国的生存状况和出口增长情况,同时,分别对不同地区企业和不同所有权企业进行检验,结果发现目的国的制度环境越好越有利于出口企业的生存,但越不利于企业的出口增长。这些结论可为中国企业选择出口目的国以及保持出口的稳定和持续增长提供丰富的政策含义。