Survival is for the fittest: Export survival patterns in Georgia

This paper analyzes the determinants of export flow survival in Georgia. The paper uses a unique Georgian firm-level dataset, in which firm characteristics and output dynamics are matched with their customs export transactions, for the period 2006–2012. We adopt a discrete survival model to explore the role of firm-level characteristics, diversification strategies and network effects on the survival rates of export flows. Low survival rates at the product level limit the ability of Georgian firms to consolidate new products in international markets. The analysis finds that it is production efficiency, rather than size, that boosts export survival chances, that firms’ diversification strategies matter for the prospects of survival, and that there is strong evidence of network effects in export survival. We also find that ratified foreign trade agreements contribute to increase the survival of export flows by reducing policy-induced trading costs and increasing information about destination markets.     

Hierarchic competitive equilibria

Without an interiority or strong survival assumption, an equilibrium may not exist in the standard Arrow–Debreu model. We propose a generalized concept of competitive equilibrium, called hierarchic equilibrium. Instead of using standard prices we use hierarchic prices. Existence will be shown without a strong survival assumption and without a non-satiation condition on the preferences. Under standard assumptions this reduces to the Walras equilibrium. Hierarchic equilibria are weakly Pareto optimal and any Pareto optimum can be decentralized without a border condition. We prove the existence of a Pareto optimal hierarchic equilibrium under additional assumptions. Later, we establish a core equivalence result.     

中国稀土出口市场势力的实证研究

本文实证研究中国稀土出口贸易的市场势力。计量研究发现,中国稀土出口贸易的实际市场势力比较微弱,出现"寡头"地位与市场势力缺乏共存的现象。利用微观贸易数据,发现中国稀土出口贸易呈现较强的竞争性市场结构特征,因此,虽然具有国家总量上的"寡头"地位,但却只能获得竞争性定价结果,出口贸易市场势力的缺乏成为必然。利用生存能力法对中国稀土出口贸易最优规模经济量进行估计,发现稀土贸易(生产)的最优规模经济区间为0.5-10%的市场份额区间,其他区间则是规模不经济的,为中国稀土贸易市场势力的增强和政策调整提供了实证依据。     

Internet exposure during adolescence and age at first marriage

The expansion of the internet has provided people with more channels to obtain information. New information about the world and other lifestyles provided by the internet may affect teenagers’ attitudes and change their behavior of first marriage in adulthood. Using data from China Family Panel Studies, this paper explores a national policy reform of the internet in 2000 and combines a difference-in-difference framework with a discrete-time hazard model to estimate the impact of internet exposure in adolescence on women’s age at first marriage. The results show that internet exposure during adolescence significantly reduces the risk of women’s age at first marriage. No change is observed in men of similar age. Further analysis of the mechanism shows that women’s education or search costs in the marriage market cannot explain the findings. In contrast, women’s traditional attitudes toward gender roles vary with internet exposure. Their gender role attitudes become more egalitarian, and their attitudes toward marriage become more open. Exposure to the internet also makes women even more reluctant to enter marriage, an institution that is increasingly differentiated by traditional gender roles.     

A survival analysis of de novo co-operative credit banks

This paper studies the features of de novo Co-operative Credit Banks (CCBs) established in Italy during the 1990s. It shows that de novo CCBs in the start-up period are endowed with a higher default risk than long-run incumbent CCBs. Split-population duration models distiguish the determinants of duration and probability of default. The focus is on those determinants related to market structure. We find that duration is positively related to the market share of large banks. Conversely, duration is higher when there are no incumbent CCBs in the same market. Survival probability is directly related to the local level of GDP.All correspondence to Paolo Emilio Mistrulli. The authors thank Francesco Cesarini, Robert DeYoung, Roberto Di Salvo, Dario Focarelli, Eugenio Gaiotti, Leonardo Gambacorta, Giorgio Gobbi, Francesca Lotti, Fabio Panetta, Alberto F. Pozzolo and two anonymous referees for very valuable comments. Any remaining errors are those of the authors alone. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions with which they are affiliated.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: February 2004     

爱尔兰债务危机的近距离观察

爱尔兰债务危机主要因房地产泡沫的破灭以及政府对陷入困境中的银行业地毯式注资所引起,更由于外资力量的复合作用而恶化。这场危机不仅将放大欧洲银行业的风险敞口,而且可能危及欧元的存续。也正是如此,欧盟委员会和国际社会采取了果断的援救措施。不过,由于欧元区自身固有的体制性缺陷,欧债危机可能还会在另外的国家继续上演。     

The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK

This study seeks to understand to what extent new exporters are able to survive in international markets and whether exit from exporting is more likely to be associated with firm-level heterogeneity or more general factors such as trade costs and/or barriers to entry and exit (such as sunk costs). This study presents the first analysis undertaken for a nationally representative group of UK firms on the determinants of exit from exporting, using panel data covering all market-based sectors of the UK during 1997–2003. Our findings suggest that the probability of a firm ceasing to export is directly influenced by its productivity and other attributes associated with firm-level productivity differences (such as size and foreign ownership). Micro-finance factors, such as profitability and the ability to finance through long-term debt, play an additional role. Lastly, sectoral differences (e.g. industrial concentration) also help explain the firm’s exit decision, whilst trade costs lead to a higher probability of exiting from selling internationally.     

Firm selection and industry evolution: the post-entry performance of new firms

A dynamic framework based on the process of firm selection and industry evolution is used to analyse the post-entry performance of new firms. In particular, it is hypothesized that, based on the stylized fact that virtually all new firms start at a very small scale of output, firm growth and survival are shaped by the need to attain an efficient level of output. The post-entry performance of more than 11,000 U.S. manufacturing firms established in 1976 is tracked throughout the subsequent tenyear period. Firm growth is found to be negatively influenced by firm size but positively related to the extent of scale economies, capital intensity, innovative activity, and market growth. By contrast, the likelihood of survival is identified as being positively influenced by firm size, market growth, and capital intensity, but negatively affected by the degree of scale economies in the industry. When viewed through the dynamic framework of firm selection and industry evolution, the empirical results shed considerable light on several paradoxes in the industrial organization literature, such as the continued persistence over time of an asymmetrical firm-size distribution consisting predominantely of suboptimal scale firms, and the failure of capital intensity and scale economies to substantially deter the entry and start-up of new firms.     

Analyzing tourists’ length of stay at destinations with survival models: A constructive critique based on a case study

The statistical modeling of tourists’ length of stay at destinations is a topic that recently has received much attention from tourism scholars. In this regard, so-called “survival models” have been introduced as a means of studying how a set of independent variables explain variation in the number of days tourists spend at destinations. This paper provides a critical look at these studies. There are two main findings. (1) The various justifications offered for favoring the survival models over the traditional OLS regression do not hold up under closer scrutiny. (2) An empirical study shows that the OLS regression model describes the association between a set of independent variables and length of stay at least as effectively as a battery of survival models. In line with the principle of parsimony it is concluded that future studies on tourists’ length of stay should abandon survival models if they are conducted along similar lines as the ones to date.     

Survival analysis of the Spanish hotel industry

The main objective of this study is an analysis of survival in the Spanish hotel industry. We used a sample of 1033 hotels opened from 1997 to 2009, examining financial and non-financial variables, including size; location; type of hotel; management, economic and financial structure and the year they opened, whether during an expansion or crisis period. The methodology included an econometric analysis of survival, using the non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimator of constructed variables, in order to detect the particular influence of each variable. Semi-parametric regression was done with the Cox proportional hazards model, confirming which variables clearly influenced the survival of hotels and which signs existed for each analysed variables’ influence. The survival of hotels depends on their size, location, management and launch in a time of prosperity. However, survival rates were not significantly tied to particular types of hotels or configurations of their economic and financial structures.