Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

International Market Segmentation and Cross-Export Strategies Development Case Study: Iranian Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT

By developing an international market and significant differences between countries in this regard, segmentation becomes an increasingly important concept in marketing. In this article, the international market of Iranian furniture industry is segmented and cross-exporting strategies are developed to increase the market share of Iranian furniture in each segment. To achieve this, two distance functions are introduced based on correlation between export groups to cluster countries with k-means algorithm. After market segmentation for increasing sales in each segment, cross-exporting strategies are predicted by extracting association rules in each segment based on Apriori algorithm to set export baskets.     

‘Free actors’ and organizations: critical remarks about the new career literature,based on French insights

What is the reality of contemporary careers? Have individuals become masters of their professional destiny? While the ‘new career literature’ puts forward the figure of an individual free to invent his/her career (the ‘free actor model’), this article shows that the changes purported to affect careers are less radical than they seem. Despite a weakening of environments, discriminating career mechanisms are still imposed on cadres, at least in France. Because individuals do not always have the means or the will to escape those mechanisms, ‘external clues’ continue to mark careers more than the new career literature supposes. To account for the realities observed in France, this paper proposes a specific view on careers, which highlights why career rules still exist in the country.     

A hybrid parallel genetic algorithm for yard crane scheduling

This paper aims at postulating a novel strategy in terms of yard crane scheduling. In this study, a dynamic scheduling model using objective programming for yard cranes is initially developed based on rolling-horizon approach. To resolve the NP-complete problem regarding the yard crane scheduling, a hybrid algorithm, which employs heuristic rules and parallel genetic algorithm (PGA), is then employed. Then a simulation model is developed for evaluating this approach. Finally, numerical experiments on a specific container terminal yard are used for system illustration. Computational results suggest that the proposed method is able to solve the problem efficiently.     

Cognitive Theory and Moral Behavior: The Contribution of F. A. Hayek to Business Ethics

This paper shows how business ethics as a concept may be approached from a cognitive viewpoint. Following F. A. Hayek's cognitive theory, I argue that moral behavior evolves and changes because of individual perception and action. Individual moral behavior becomes a moral rule when prominently displayed by members of a certain society in a specific situation. A set of moral rules eventually forms the ethical code of a society, of which business ethics codes are only a part. By focusing on the concept of "limited" or "dispersed knowledge" that underlies the cognitive approach, I show that universal ethical norms that should lead to defined outcomes cannot exist. This approach moreover shows the limits of deliberate rule-setting. Attempts to deliberately impose universal ethical rules on societies may turn out to be harmful for societal development and lead to an abuse of governmental power.     

A note on Bossert,Pattanaik and Xu's “Choice under complete uncertainty: axiomatic characterization of some decision rules”

Summary. Recent work by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu provides axiomatic characterizations of some decision rules for individual decision making under complete uncertainty. This note shows that, in the case of two of these rules, they do not satisfy one of the axioms used for their characterization. A counterexample illustrating this fact is provided, as well as an alternative way to characterize the two rules under consideration, mantaining as far as possible the original axioms proposed by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu. Received: November 3, 2000; revised version: March 1, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I am grateful for the encouragement and support of Professor Prasanta Pattanaik. I thank also the suggestions of two anonymous referees. This work was made during an academic visit to the Department of Economics of the University of California in Riverside (UCR). The visit was possible thanks to an invitation by the UCR and the financial support of the Public University of Navarra, the Government of Navarra, and the CICYT (SEC96-0858).     

《六书故》引申规律及其影响

关于引申规律的探讨,世人多推许清代学者段玉裁的《说文解字注》,并从中归纳出众多类型。《六书故》是宋元之际戴侗所著的一部字书。本文从《六书故》中找出相应的例证,以说明早于《段注》几百年的《六书故》已能反映和描述这些引申规律。从而说明《六书故》在词义引申规律方面的探讨对后代产生了深远的影响。     

“默示同意”：合理博弈与不完善制度——郑百文重组过程中表决规则的经济学分析

当主持者对表决方式有选择余地时,那么他会根据自己的偏好,直接或间接影响表决结果,这是无法避免的,是在现有制度下的一种合理博弈,是有效的。如果他本身就是博弈的一方,则更会充分利用这种影响。而主持人对议案内容的偏好是广泛存在的,不可能通过消除偏好来消除影响。但是如果加强民主和监督,使主持者的选择余地尽可能缩小,即他只能选择社会承认的最优的“公平”规则才符合他自己的成本－－收益平衡,那么这样就使个人的最优选择与社会的最优选择一致,提供了制度上的改进办法。而在未有更高程度的民主和更有效的监督制度之前,只能容忍在现有制度内的博弈行为。所以,只有通过进一步加强民主和健全法制,进行表决规则的制度建设,才有可能得到更优化和更真实的表决结果。     

上市公司反收购中的章程应用及法律规制

公司章程是公司的宪章性文件，是公司实现自治的重要手段。在上市公司收购中，目标公司通常通过公司章程的修订，在其中置入相应的反收购条款，以防止或者抵制敌意收购。由于我国的公司、证券法律法规对上市公司反收购问题规定的相对欠缺，导致实践中利用公司章程实施反收购出现失范的情况较为明显。本文尝试分析如何在现行法律框架内对利用公司章程实施反收购的行为进行有效规制，并提出相应的政策建议。