Which is a stronger competitor,High Speed Rail,or Low Cost Carrier,to Full Service Carrier? – Effects of HSR network extension and LCC entry on FSC's airfare in Japan

In Japan, High Speed Rail (HSR) extended its network in 2011 and 2015, and Low Cost Carriers (LCC) entered into the domestic airline market in 2012. We compared the effects of the extension of the HSR network and the entry of LCCs on the airfares of the incumbent Full Service Carriers (FSC). We conducted Difference in Differences analysis with passenger level data to evaluate these market changes, and found that the effects of the HSR extension on FSC's airfares were consistently negative and larger in the short haul markets, while the effects of the entry of LCCs were inconsistent. HSR seems to be a stronger competitor than LCC to FSC and this finding could be affected by capacity, which is large for HSR while small for the LCCs.     

中国外汇储备的构成、收益与风险

基于美国财政部国际资本系统(TIC)的数据,本文对中国外汇储备的币种和证券资产构成进行推测,并估算其成本与收益,分析潜在的资本风险。本文结论显示,绝大部分中国外汇储备被用于美元、欧元资产的投资,其中,美国的国债和机构债券占主体地位。若以美元计价,2000~2009年中国外汇储备的平均收益率尚达4%~5%;若以人民币计价,汇改前的平均收益率为5.54%,汇改后仅为1%。在剔除外汇冲销成本之后,汇改前的平均净收益率为3.59%,汇改后为-1.64%。与低收益率不相匹配的是,中国外汇储备面临着较高的资本损失风险,如两房机构债券违约风险、利率(通货膨胀)风险和汇率风险等。     

How much can illiquidity affect corporate debt yield spread?

We present a structural method for measuring the upper bound for the illiquidity risk of liabilities issued by a levered firm. The method calculates the upper bound of illiquidity spread of a corporate bond given its duration and the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio. Consistent with the empirical literature the illiquidity spread is positively related to the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio and the illiquidity component increases with a bond’s credit quality. The term structure of illiquidity spread has a humped shape, where its maximum level depends on the firm’s leverage ratio. Finally, we demonstrate how the method’s implied restricted trading period can be used as a measure for illiquidity in the bonds’ market.     

Do lower yielding farmers benefit from Bt corn? Evidence from instrumental variable quantile regressions

There have been serious questions about whether lower-yielding farmers in developing countries, who are typically poor smallholders, benefit from genetically-modified crops like Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) corn. This article examines this issue by estimating the heterogeneous impacts of Bt corn adoption at different points of the yield distribution using farm-level survey data from the Philippines. A recently developed estimation technique called instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) is used to assess the heterogeneous yield effects of Bt corn adoption and at the same time address potential selection bias that usually plague impact assessment of agricultural technologies. We find that the positive yield impact of Bt corn in the Philippines tend to be more strongly felt by farmers at the lower end of the yield distribution. This result suggests that Bt corn could be a “pro-poor” technology since most of the lower-yielding farmers in the Philippines are poor smallholders with low incomes.     

Downside risk and defaultable bond returns

This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond-trading model, we show that the decline in market risk tolerance and information accuracy leads to trading loss under downside conditions. Our empirical analysis indicates that downside risk can explain a large proportion of the variation in yield spreads and contains almost all valid information on liquidity risk. As the credit level decreases, the explanatory power of downside risk increases significantly. We also investigate the predictive power of downside risk in cross-sectional defaultable bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. We find that downside risk is a strong and robust predictor for future bond returns. In addition, due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the Chinese bond market, downside risk proxy semi-variance can better explain yield spreads and predict portfolio excess returns than the proxy value at risk.     

提高绞吸式挖泥船产量之我见

文中从提高挖泥运转时间、提高流速、提高泥浆浓度三个方面论述了提高绞吸式挖泥船产量的方法。     

数字金融对行业资源配置效率的实证研究 ——基于一级行业周收益率数据

为考察数字金融对证券市场不同行业的影响,从而为市场风险识别、标的估值及投资策略制定等提供客观的参考指标。同时,也为数字金融政策制定、市场监管提供重要的参考依据。利用A股市场过去十年一级行业周收益率数据,构建证券市场行业收益率及波动率对数字金融指数等变量的面板自回归模型,实证结果表明：数字金融与证券市场整体收益率呈正相关。数字金融的增长可以抑制市场波动率的增长。数字金融对传媒,电子,房地产,家用电器,计算机,汽车,通信等行业均具有较好的经济显著性和统计显著性。在长期,行业间收益差异有收敛迹象。数字金融促进行业的收益均衡,说明数字金融对行业资本配置效率的提升有正向作用。     

Using Remote Sensing for Agricultural Statistics

Remote sensing can be a valuable tool for agricultural statistics when area frames or multiple frames are used. At the design level, remote sensing typically helps in the definition of sampling units and the stratification, but can also be exploited to optimise the sample allocation and size of sampling units. At the estimator level, classified satellite images are generally used as auxiliary variables in a regression estimator or for estimators based on confusion matrixes. The most often used satellite images are LANDSAT-TM and SPOT-XS. In general, classified or photo-interpreted images should not be directly used to estimate crop areas because the proportion of pixels classified into the specific crop is often strongly biased. Vegetation indexes computed from satellite images can give in some cases a good indication of the potential crop yield.     

农业保险、粮食产量与灾害适应

农业保险保障水平的不断提高对维护粮食安全具有重要作用.本文在分析农业保险对粮食产量的理论影响基础上,构建了"适应性预期-局部调整"模型并利用省级面板数据和系统GMM估计方法进行实证分析.结果表明:农业保险对粮食单产和总产均具有显著正向影响,但主要通过影响粮食单产影响粮食总产出,对播种面积的影响不显著.其中,农业保险对灾...