变电设备红外线热成像诊断技术的准确性分析

红外诊断技术是一种新型诊断技术,为变电设备的热诊断提供了很好的诊断方式,该种诊断方式有着不解体、直观性、快速性、准确性的特征,也适宜用在大面积检测中,同时,该种诊断技术也能够与其他检测方式联合使用,定位故障的具体位置,这就可以有效提升检修的便利性。但是,影响红外线热成像诊断技术准确率的因素是多种多样的,在进行诊断时,必须要合理地控制其测量环境与测量方式。本文主要分析影响红外线热成像诊断技术准确性的因素,并提出相关的解决措施。     

提高电磁流量计测量准确度的方法

针对在注水中电磁流量计测量准确度普遍低于理论值的现状，试验小组根据电磁流量计原理与实际应用工况条件，查找影响电磁流量计测量准确度的主要因素，并制定对策措施进行反复比较实验和效果检查，最终通过5项有效措施的实施，完成电磁流量计测量准确度达到并超过理论值的目标。     

Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

Rationality of inflation–output forecasts of MMS survey: international evidence

We analyse the individual rationality of inflation and output forecasts from Money Market Survey (MMS) for a group of G7 countries and EU under asymmetric univariate Linlin and Linex loss functions. We also test for joint rationality of inflation–output forecasts using the forecast rationality test under multivariate asymmetric loss functions proposed by Ulu (2013). Our results indicate that rationality is often rejected under symmetric loss, and results improve towards rationality when asymmetric loss functions are assumed. The assumption of multivariate asymmetric loss compared to univariate asymmetric loss provides further evidence towards rationality. We also analyse directional forecast accuracy of the inflation and output forecasts and find that the inflation–output forecasts of MMS are valuable when considered both jointly and separately.     

The problem of employees' network centrality and supervisors' error in performance appraisal: A multilevel theory

This article reveals an unexplored paradox for HR managers: the centrality of an employee in the social network benefits performance but hampers performance appraisal because it affects supervisors' rating errors. Central employees can be erroneously rated high on performance even when they are not high performers because supervisors tend to overappraise their performance. A distinction is made between rating precision, which depends on supervisors' uncertainty regarding employees' performance, and rating accuracy, which depends on supervisors' bias in favor of employees. Employee centrality is posited to be beneficial to precision but deleterious to accuracy because it regulates the diffusion of positive information, status, and power, all of which distort supervisors' capacity and motivation to accurately appraise performance. It is then argued that rating errors caused by network centrality affect aggregate perceptions of justice in organizations. When employees are highly connected to each other in a dense network, organizations have a strong and positive justice climate. Yet when some employees are more central than others in a centralized network, organizations have a negative and weak justice climate. The article contributes to the literature because it identifies an unexplored dark side of network centrality and offers recommendations for HR managers to cope with its deleterious consequences and for scholars to study them.     

供应链共享信息准确度研究

信息共享在供应链协调过程中发挥着重要的作用,而共享信息准确度是关键。基于一个供应商和一个零售商组成的两层供应链模型,比较两者非信息共享与信息共享状态下的收益,得出信息共享准确度对于整个供应链绩效的影响,提出了提高共享信息准确度的措施。     

测控通信系统射频资源可重组技术

测控通信系统的资源重组将是飞行器测控通信系统的发展方向。在中频实现测控终端重组的基础上,通过对射频重组构架的分析,得出了射频交换网络的性能和射频远距离传输的性能直接影响射频重组的可行性,提出了一种可行的全系统资源重组的测控体系构架,即采用微光电子射频交换网络与射频光波传输技术实现射频信号大规模交换及远距离传输,再结合中频重组以实现全系统资源重组,并对相关性能进行了分析。所提出的设计思路可供测控通信系统实现全体系的资源重组借鉴及参考。     

Recall of autobiographical memory: A longitudinal analysis of franchisee experts

In this longitudinal study, we investigate whether franchisees in their role as experts exhibit consistent recall of their perceptions of franchise value after a 3-year interval when a strong autobiographical instance association (i.e., the multiunit decision) is created. Paired-sample t tests and correlation analysis are used to examine recall accuracy. While the analysis reveals stability of recall for typical franchisee experts over both the recent and the distant past, the individual level data indicate that the precision of recall deteriorates over time. Implications for future research involving retrospective data are offered.     

Uniformly most accurate equivariant prediction limit

Summary Prediction limits are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. The determination of prediction limits has been extensively investigated, but few optimal properties of these limits have been explored. This paper introduces a concept of uniform accuracy in order to compare equivariant prediction limits and show that the prediction limits used for the normal distribution and the exponential distribution are uniformly most accurate equivariant.     

The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts

We show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post, they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns. This suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations. We also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased, and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not. This suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts.