Uniformly most accurate equivariant prediction limit

Summary Prediction limits are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. The determination of prediction limits has been extensively investigated, but few optimal properties of these limits have been explored. This paper introduces a concept of uniform accuracy in order to compare equivariant prediction limits and show that the prediction limits used for the normal distribution and the exponential distribution are uniformly most accurate equivariant.     

The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts

We show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post, they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns. This suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations. We also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased, and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not. This suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts.     

Predicting capacity utilization: Federal Reserve vs time-series models

This study evaluates the Federal Reserve forecasts of manufacturing capacity utilization employing, as benchmarks, the forecasts from a univariate model which utilizes past information in capacity utilization, and from a bivariate model which utilizes past information in both capacity utilization and the federal funds rate. In addition to accurately predicting the directional change in capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve forecasts are “weakly” rational and generally superior to the bivariate forecasts. In light of another finding that monetary policy is non-neutral, we argue the Federal Reserve forecasts of capacity utilization have positively contributed to the Fed’s success in maintaining a low inflationary environment.

Group-Affiliated Analysts’ Strategic Forecasts During a Year: Evidence from Korea

In examining the family-controlled business groups in Korea, prior literature shows that group-affiliated analysts’ forecasts are optimistically biased. This article investigates whether the group-affiliated analysts strategically time the level of accuracy and bias in their forecasts for the same group-affiliated firms due to the change in information asymmetry in the market. The results show that the group-affiliated analysts issue more accurate and less optimistic earnings forecasts for the affiliated firms when the level of information asymmetry is low; particularly, in April, which is right after annual earnings announcements.     

Are more able managers good future tellers? Learning from Japan

Baik et al. (2011) find that high-ability managers in the U.S. are more likely to issue accurate management earnings forecasts. Focusing on Japan, where management earnings forecasts are effectively mandated, we extend the literature by exploring (1) whether the relationship between managerial ability and forecast accuracy is unique to the U.S. disclosure system, where management forecasts are voluntary, and (2) how high-ability managers increase their forecast accuracy. We find that managerial ability is negatively associated with forecast errors based on initial forecasts, suggesting that high-ability managers are more likely to issue accurate forecasts at the beginning of the fiscal year. We then show that high-ability managers are less likely to revise their initial earnings forecasts and less likely to use earnings management to improve the accuracy of their earnings forecasts. Our findings show that, while high-ability managers are more likely to issue accurate initial management forecasts, low-ability managers are more likely to revise their forecasts and conduct earnings management to reduce their forecast errors.     

USER INFLUENCE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FORECAST ACCURACY,APPLICATION AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE

When companies develop and apply more accurate forecasts in their planning and management activities, they have the potential to improve performance throughout their organization and across the supply chain. To realize these improvements, however, companies must (1) implement techniques and practices that improve forecast accuracy, and (2) integrate the more accurate forecasts into their planning and management activities. While much research has focused on accomplishing the first of these requirements, few studies have investigated the important role that user's play in the application of forecasts for logistics planning and management. This article establishes a connection between forecast performance, user perceptions of the quality of forecasts they receive, the extent that they use the forecasts and the resulting impact on logistics performance.     

LDO线性稳压器输出电压精度的分析与研究

低漏失线性稳压器的输出电压精度一般取决于电压调整率、负载调整率、基准精度、温度系数以及取样电阻的精度等多种因素。详细分析了影响低漏失线性稳压器输出电压精度的主要因素,并对各因素的影响程度进行了定量研究。     

Ownership structure and forecast accuracy in Spain

This article examines how analysts respond to specific ownership structure characteristics by studying the accuracy of their forecasts after the release of the first Spanish corporate governance code and before IFRS were adopted. Specifically, we analyse the influence of ownership concentration, bank ownership and insider ownership on analyst forecast errors. Overall the results show a positive and significant influence of bank ownership on analyst forecast accuracy, which suggests that bank ownership leads to closer monitoring of management and a reduction in analyst forecast errors. However, the presence of large shareholders and insiders in the ownership structure of the firm does not significantly affect the accuracy of financial analysts. This research provides investors with a more refined sense of how analyst forecasts might be affected through the composition of the ownership structure in a context of high concentration of ownership, relevant presence of banks in firms as creditors and shareholders, and local GAAP.     

A reappraisal of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle

Several explanations have been put forward for the Meese–Rogoff puzzle that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. We suggest that a simple explanation for the puzzle is the use of the root mean square error (RMSE) to measure forecasting accuracy, presenting a rationale as to why it is difficult to beat the random walk in terms of the RMSE. By using exactly the same exchange rates, time periods and estimation methods as those of Meese and Rogoff, we find that their results cannot be overturned even if the models are estimated with time-varying coefficients. However, we also find that the random walk can be outperformed by the same models if forecasting accuracy is measured in terms of the ability to predict direction, in terms of a measure that combines magnitude and direction and in terms of profitability.     

提高自动量热仪的测试精度和稳定性

对影响自动量热仪测试精度和可靠性的问题进行分析,并采取切实有效的改进措施以提高了自动量热仪的测试精度和准确度。