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71.
Rick J. Parent Tiffany Noël Hib Rebecca A. Silver Carrie Jenkins Margaret P. Poe R. Jacob Mullins 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2005,72(4):171-411
Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2. 相似文献
72.
测控通信系统的资源重组将是飞行器测控通信系统的发展方向。在中频实现测控终端重组的基础上,通过对射频重组构架的分析,得出了射频交换网络的性能和射频远距离传输的性能直接影响射频重组的可行性,提出了一种可行的全系统资源重组的测控体系构架,即采用微光电子射频交换网络与射频光波传输技术实现射频信号大规模交换及远距离传输,再结合中频重组以实现全系统资源重组,并对相关性能进行了分析。所提出的设计思路可供测控通信系统实现全体系的资源重组借鉴及参考。 相似文献
73.
研究了原始设备制造商的预测信息分享对一个原始设备制造商和一个与其同时有合作和竞争的合同制造商组成的供应链系统的影响,建立制造商间信息分享的模型,该模型包括一个原始设备制造商和一个合同制造商。研究发现,原始设备制造商关于市场潜在需求预测信息的分享对其预期利润是不利的,同时需求信息预测的精度对原始设备制造商信息分享的决策也有影响,原始设备制造商没有动机与其供应链成员进行信息分享,但信息分享使得供应链整体利润增加。最后,建立一个信息分享补偿机制分享供应链利润的增加量,以期通过信息分享补偿机制促使原始设备制造商有动机进行信息分享,从而实现其与合同制造商的“双赢”。 相似文献
74.
75.
This paper investigates how environmental regulation and action affect analyst behaviour. Exploiting staggered enactment of low carbon city (LCC) initiatives in a difference-in-differences (DiD) setting, we observe that analyst forecast accuracy (dispersion) is significantly lower (greater) for client firms headquartered in cities covered by the LCC pilot programme, especially among firms with a low-quality information environment. The LCC effort affects analyst behaviour via increased firm risk and reduced earnings predictability, causing enhanced site visits and coverage. The results are stronger in cities with more rigorous enforcement and regulation intensity, for private firms with high business complexity and in heavily polluting industries. Results are robust to DiD models with entropy balancing matching, placebo tests, parallel trend tests, and a battery of fixed effects. Collectively, they reveal that environmental regulation has real impacts on analyst forecast behaviour. 相似文献
76.
《Finance Research Letters》2014,11(2):91-103
This paper theoretically investigates whether compensating a credit rating agency (CRA) with an upfront fee, rather than a rating contingent fee, can improve rating quality. I show that an upfront fee delivers the same rating quality as the rating contingent fee if the CRA sets its rating policy before the issuer solicits a rating, whereas it can potentially improve quality if the rating policy is set only after a rating is solicited. These results suggest that the “Franken Amendment” that has been removed from the Dodd-Frank Act might be crucial for the proposed upfront fee regime to improve rating quality. 相似文献
77.
随着高速铁路重载铁路使用的增多,对相关养路机械设备使用的要求标准要来越高。不过从实际情况来看,现阶段使用的不少机械养路设备在使用过程中,出现较多的问题,其中主要是测量方面的精度较差,这就给很多铁路线路的维护,带来一定的问题。在本文的研究中,重点对大型养路机械D08-32捣固车系统存在的问题进行了分析,并结合实际经验,提出提高作业精度的一些方案,通过实践证明,改进后的D08-32捣固车,维修作业精度得到了很大的提高,并且相关的零点校对也变得更加快捷。 相似文献
78.
79.
脉冲辐射源定位系统主要用于对空基、地基和海基目标的时短信号辐射源进行检测和定位。现有的脉冲辐射源定位系统大都属于长基线系统。本文提出在有限空间环境下进行时差定位的新方法,并对系统的定位精度进行了仿真,提出了实现系统所需的关键技术。 相似文献
80.
《Journal Of African Business》2013,14(1):95-107
ABSTRACT The impact of information technology in the industrialized world is dramatic and the trend is continuing at an exponential rate with global implications. In contrast, the impact of information technology in developing countries is marginal, with only a few countries daring to travel on the information superhighway. One fundamental reason for the lag in the utilization of information technology in developing countries is the absence of basic data. This article explores the possible causes of this lack of basic data by examining the normative factors, cultural and exotic, embedded in the current practices of collecting, storing, and accessing data in Ghana, a developing country. We also discuss the importance of goodness of data (i.e., accuracy, reliability, and validity of data) and the practices that compromise them. We then suggest ways by which information technology can be used to (1) address the goodness of data, (2) solve the problems associated with the current practices of recording, storing, and accessing data, and (3) enhance decision making in policy formulation and strategic planning. 相似文献