Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976–2007

The study analyzes the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly on the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals almost all of them are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.     

Cost per additional responder for ixekizumab and other FDA-approved biologics in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis

Background: Evidence of the cost-efficacy of ixekizumab for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) in the US is limited.

Objective: To estimate the number needed to treat (NNT) and monthly cost of achieving one additional Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 75, 90, and 100 responder for ixekizumab and other Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved biologics in PsO.

Methods: A network meta-analysis estimated the probability of achieving PASI 75, 90, or 100 response during induction for each biologic. NNTs were calculated using response difference of each respective biologic vs placebo at the end of induction. Monthly costs per additional PASI responder were based on FDA-approved doses, wholesale acquisition costs, and induction NNTs.

Results: Induction NNTs for ixekizumab 80?mg once every 2 weeks (Q2W) relative to placebo were consistently lower across all levels of clearance compared with the other biologics. Monthly cost per additional responder was lowest for ustekinumab 45?mg at PASI 75 and for secukinumab 300?mg and ixekizumab 80?mg Q2W at PASI 90. Ixekizumab 80?mg Q2W had the lowest cost for PASI 100.

Conclusion: In this analysis, ixekizumab is the most cost-efficient biologic in the US when targeting complete resolution, as measured by PASI 100 in PsO.     

Impact of novel agents on patient-relevant outcomes in patients with previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia who are not eligible for fludarabine-based therapy

Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an orphan disease that primarily affects the elderly. The majority of symptomatic patients eligible for frontline treatment are unfit for fludarabine based chemoimmunotherapy. Historical treatment includes chlorambucil (Chl), bendamustine/rituximab (BR), and chlorambucil/rituximab/ChlR combination. Clinical guidelines now recommend the use of novel agents, such as ibrutinib (Ibr), in both frontline and relapse settings and other novel agents, such as idelalisib (with rituximab), in relapse settings. Despite compelling clinical results for novel agents, follow-up in clinical trials is relatively short and, thus, the comparative long-term benefits are still unknown.

Materials and methods: The authors developed a simulation model to generate treatment specific lifetime estimates of Overall Survival (OS) and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) for treatment with BR, Chl, ChlR, and Ibr. Two potential clinical scenarios were modelled: with and without novel agents for treating CLL. The model was based on health states relating to first- and second-line progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival, and death.

Results: Where novel agents were assumed unavailable, mean OS ranged from 5.4–8.5 years and QALYs from 3.5–6.1. Where novel agents were available, the mean OS increased to 10.0 years, with a corresponding increase in QALYs to 7.6. Frontline Ibr use followed by Physician’s Choice, including novel agents at relapse, resulted in projected increase in OS of between 18% (1.5 years) and 85% (4.6 years), corresponding to a 25–117% increase in QALYs, compared with currently available traditional therapies.

Limitations: The limitations of this analysis include immature OS data and the assumption of equivalent efficacy across all novel agents in terms of their impact on PFS and OS.

Conclusions: The use of novel agents is predicted to yield substantive gains in predicted lifetime OS and QALY improvements compared to traditional therapies in CLL patients who are ineligible for fludarabine-based chemoimmunotherapy.     

Exploring the Dimensional Relationships among Image Formation Agents,Destination Image,and Place Attachment from the Perspectives of Pop Star Fans

This study tested a conceptual model in order to examine the role of specific image formation agents in forming destination image and place attachment from the perspective of pop star fans. By examining each construct’s subdimensions, the significant path analysis results supported the proposed model and offered a holistic view of the relationships among the variables, thus extending the literature. Findings suggested that autonomous image formation agents have d3istinct roles in forming destination image and place attachment in comparison with induced and organic agents. The findings highlight the important role of destination image in mediating the relationship between image formation agents and place attachment. This study further revealed a direct impact of image formation agents on place attachment dimensions. Meaningful implications for destination marketers are presented.     

Developing a dual-perspective low-carbon tourism evaluation index system for travel agencies

This paper presents a two-stage development model for low-carbon tourism (LCT). In study I, a qualitative questionnaire was developed using the Delphi and analytic hierarchy process methods, and this was then distributed to 19 experts, whose opinions were used to develop a complete index system for low-carbon tours. In study II, 393 tourists questionnaires administered in the Sun Moon Lake National Scenic Area were utilized to determine whether the index system would affect visitor purchase intentions. The findings showed that the LCT index system positively influenced tourists' purchase intentions, and their actual purchase behaviors toward low-carbon products. However, this study empirically found that there are significant differences with regard to what these two groups (experts and tourists) view as important in a low-carbon tour system. The contributions of this study include: (1) confirming the importance of the multiple perspectives obtained from the travel industry and tourists to establish the LCT system; (2) using the case study to investigate tourists' opinions to better understand whether the LCT index that was developed based on the industry perspective in stage one was appropriate; and (3) offering practical suggestions to help businesses better understand specific trends and plans for LCT.     

异质交易者视角下的人民币外汇市场微观结构模型研究

本文基于异质交易者视角构建了人民币外汇市场微观结构模型以考察市场中基本面交易者和技术交易者的动态调整机制和人民币汇率的运动规律。通过对模型的求解,本文得到不同情况下汇率收敛于基本面汇率的市场微观结构条件和运动轨迹方程。当汇率基本面受到重大的外部冲击时,技术交易者、基本面交易者和做市商等参与者的相互作用会最终导致人民币汇率过度反应,汇率的运动轨迹会不断偏离汇率的基本面价值。而当外部冲击的大小在一定范围内时,人民币汇率会温和的最终趋向汇率的基本面价值。研究结论在一定程度上解释了汇率超调之谜和非线性之谜产生的机制,为促进人民币外汇市场稳健发展提供了政策启示。     

南宁市科技中介机构发展的思路及对策

目前,南宁市科技中介机构发展仍处于不完善阶段。文章对国外科技中介机构的发展模式、政府采取的诸多政策与支持等方面进行分析,借鉴其先进的发展经验;同时,总结与借鉴国内科技中介机构发展的特点,结合南宁市科技中介机构的实际情况,探索南宁市科技中介机构发展的思路,并提出相应的对策。     

Neutral agents and social tolerance: a dynamic perspective based on economic interaction model with local social cost functions

The influence of neutral agents on the evolutionary dynamics of social tolerance is discussed based on a recently proposed economic interaction model with local social cost functions. We show that the dynamical structure of social tolerance is completely changed even if a few neutral agents are introduced into the society. Especially, the full intolerance steady state, which is stable in previous works, becomes unstable and avoidable due to the economic incentive introduced by the neutral agents. The necessary condition of achieving full tolerance is also reduced compared to previous works without neutral agents.     

张家界旅行社人员流动效益分析

张家界是以旅游为主导的专业化旅游城市。伴随着旅游经济的发展,旅行社人力资源管理矛盾日益突出,旅行社人员流动频繁的情况尤严重。控制旅行社人员流动,根本目的在于控制过高的人员流动率,应留住核心人才,优化企业人才结构,提高企业与员工的双向信任度,从而增强企业凝聚力,创造真正的企业文化,最终提高企业效益。