Daily peak electrical load forecasting with a multi-resolution approach

In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders in the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart grid strategies such as peak shaving. The modelling approach proposed in this paper leverages high-resolution and low-resolution information to forecast daily peak demand size and timing. The resulting multi-resolution modelling framework can be adapted to different model classes. The key contributions of this paper are (a) a general and formal introduction to the multi-resolution modelling approach, (b) a discussion of modelling approaches at different resolutions implemented via generalised additive models and neural networks, and (c) experimental results on real data from the UK electricity market. The results confirm that the predictive performance of the proposed modelling approach is competitive with that of low- and high-resolution alternatives.     

Temporal Dynamics in Acquisition Behavior: The Effects of Activity Load on Strategic Momentum

Momentum theory suggests that acquisition experience leads to acquisition momentum in the form of a higher likelihood of subsequent acquisitions of the same type. However, this argument has been challenged theoretically and empirically. We reconcile conflicting predictions and findings of prior research and extend momentum theory by incorporating activity load as a novel causal mechanism to both replicate the base finding and explain deviations from it. We find that a high activity load due to increased acquisition activity acts as a counterforce to momentum, decreasing the likelihood of subsequent acquisitions of the same type. Moreover, we also find that the interplay of routines, cognitive frames, and activity load causes companies to alternate between different types of acquisitions – from small to large and from large to small – as management engages in attention modulation to preserve momentum. Taken together, our arguments and findings contribute to an improved understanding of temporal patterns of acquisition behaviour.     

一种高负载自重比轻型机械臂的研究

针对现有轻型机械臂负载自重比较小的问题,提出了将微型液压系统作为轻型机械臂直接驱动源的方案。设计了液压驱动轻型机械臂的机械结构,利用Arduino平台搭建了控制系统,提出了控制方法,并进行了实验。实验结果表明:应用微型直驱式液压系统的轻型机械臂负载自重比高,定位准确。     

基于实测频率振型的大跨斜拉桥响应面模型修正研究

为了验证基于实测频率和振型的响应面模型修正方法的准确性与可行性,以某大跨斜拉桥为工程背景,分别进行静载试验和环境激励下的模态测试。以竖向前4阶实测频率及振型作为状态变量,选取合理的修正参数,进行中心复合试验设计;采用考虑交互项的响应面模型进行数据拟合,并计算参数R²值的范围,进行精度检验;分析频率及振型的改变率,将修正后模型的挠度与实测挠度进行对比,验证该模型修正的准确性。结果表明：在参数范围内,各响应面模型的R²值均接近于1,拟合精度较高;修正后模型的频率与振型均接近实测值,能准确反映桥梁的动力特性;修正后模型的挠度计算值与实测值最大误差不超过7.98%,满足工程精度要求,能够真实反映大跨斜拉桥的工作状态。研究证明了基于实测频率与振型的响应面模型修正方法对大跨斜拉桥的适用性和可行性,可为实际工程中类似桥梁的模型修正提供参考。     

广州南沙某桥头路基处理方案对比及其工后沉降分析

桥头路基差异沉降是导致跳车的主要原因,严重影响行车舒适度和安全性。通过规范法和数值分析两种计算手段,对等载预压+塑料排水板+管桩、直接管桩两种桥头路基处理方案及其工后沉降进行对比分析。结果表明：规范法未能考虑路堤再加载时间的影响,且计算得到的工后沉降均为0,这与实际不符,说明规范法在进行分步工况及工后沉降计算时存在缺陷;数值分析能够同时考虑分层堆载时间、等载预压时间及路堤再加载时间的影响,也能够较好地解决分步计算工况问题;方案2的工后沉降要更大,表明经过堆载预压后,土层的固结度显著增加,有效减小了土层的后续沉降。对于方案1,随②5淤泥质粉质黏土的黏聚力或压缩模量增加,工后沉降均逐渐增加,而内摩擦的影响与之相反;对于方案2,随黏聚力、内摩擦角或压缩模量增加,工后沉降均逐渐减小,但减小幅度较小。     

异地办公模式下的地震解释平台应用探索及实践

因异地办公问题，急需解决地震资料集中管理和高强度数据交互传输与网络带宽严重不足之间的矛盾。根据两地办公的硬件环境及地震解释平台应用需求，信息运维中心开展硬件资源池虚拟化、远程图像压缩传输、资源负载均衡管理技术研究。同时建设和应用科研云平台，实现图形资源的整合、精细池化、动态访问，满足低性能客户终端对高性能图形资源的办公应用需求，实现低带宽网络环境下地震解释平台异地办公的高效应用。     

高压输电塔覆冰承载能力分析及塔型优化

采用湖南郴州王仙岭地区的一座500KV线路ZB1酒杯型直线塔的工程实际数据,采用空间桁架理论,在ANSYS中建立有限元模型,并验算输电塔塔架在其自重、覆冰荷载,风荷载和导线张力的共同作用下塔架的承载能力。在不同的工况下得出输电塔塔架中相对薄弱的位置,薄弱位置在塔颈和塔身处,并对其进行优化设计。对比优化前后的输电塔塔架,承载能力得到很大提高。     

不同载荷边界条件下的地铁站深基坑变形特性研究 ——以天津市某地铁车站为例

为更好地实现不同载荷边界条件下的基坑变形预测和控制,以天津市某地铁站深基坑为研究对象,研究超载、卸载条件下基坑变形特征.通过对现场监测数据的分析,推导基坑北侧和南侧的变形规律,并将分析结果与无超载、卸载条件的普通基坑进行水平位移、地表沉降、土体蠕变等方面的对比,最后,根据超载与卸载产生主动土压力对水平位移的影响,制定了...