How (Over) Confident Are Financial Analysts?

Extensive research has been devoted to the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. The common finding is that analysts' forecasts are not very accurate. Prior studies have tended to focus on the mean of forecasts and measure accuracy using various summaries of forecast errors. The present study sheds new light on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, by measuring how well calibrated these forecasts are. The authors follow the tradition of calibration studies in psychological literature and measure the degree of calibration by the hit rate. They analyze a year's worth of data from the Institutional Brokers Estimate System database, which includes over 200,000 annual earnings forecasts made by over 6,000 analysts for over 5,000 companies. By using different ways to convert analysts' point estimates of earnings into a range of values, the authors establish the bounds that are necessary to determine the hit rates, and examine to what extent the actual earnings announced by the companies are bracketed by these intervals. These hit rates provide a more complete picture of the accuracy of the forecasts.     

英语财经新闻趋势句的语言特征

表趋势句常用简短有力的动词表上升或下降趋势,用词灵活多变,形容词的比较级与最高级更体现了纵向或横向比较,习语修辞增强了可读性.可以英文财经报道《华尔街日报》（The Wall Street Journal）为主要语料来源,以欧元区债务危机相关报道为主要内容,探讨财经新闻中表趋势句的词汇及语法特征.表趋势句的研究可让读者更有效地抓住财经新闻的主要信息.     

证券分析师估值模型选择偏好及其对目标价的影响研究——基于企业特征角度

以2017—2020年证券分析师研报为依据,将分析师估值模型选择偏好与分析师目标价结合探讨,并率先提出目标价投资参考价值这一全新概念且对其评估方法进行设计。研究发现,分析师存在特定的估值模型类型偏好,并且在不同行业中偏好不同的估值模型。然而,分析师偏好的估值模型不一定能够生成质量良好的目标价。对于不同特征的企业,分析师存在迥然各异的估值模型选择偏好,该偏好对目标价具有显著影响。结论可帮助分析师优化估值模型选择,提高目标价质量。     

美国次贷危机形成机理及对我国经济的影响

最近,美国连续和集中爆发了一连串重大金融事件,全球经济增长缓慢,次贷危机的影响越来越大,可以这样说,美国金融危机目前已进入高潮。次贷危机通过金融渠道对中国经济的稳定与健康产生了直接影响,正是在这样的背景下,本文从经济增长的三驾马车—投资、消费、贸易三个角度来分析美国次贷危机对我国经济影响进行分析研究,并在此基础上提出我国应对的策略。     

近空间跟踪与数据中继系统的初步设想

提出"近空间跟踪与数据中继系统"的设想,分析了它与"跟踪与数据中继卫星系统"(TDRSS)的区别,讨论了它的优势,给出了简单的方案设想,指出了尚需进一步深入研究的问题。     

Security analyst firm reputation and investors’ response to forecasted stocks in the biotechnology sector

ABSTRACT

Stock analyst reputation bridges the gap between technical knowledge of the high-technology and the investor's response to its stock, implying that the reputation of the stand-alone analyst serves this purpose. However, global firms have a stronger influence on their stock analysts than do small firms with 2 personnel. Does firm reputation affect the individual analyst and attract investor attention to forecasted stocks? Evidence from SAFs (security analyst firms) in the biotechnology sector supports this question and proposition. Four moderators (interactive predictors of organisational reputation) show positive correlations. They are the SAF's age, size, performance, and media coverage. These organisational level measures contribute to the institutional theory compared to the literature that focuses on the individual analyst without their organisations. In line with institutional theory, we make three explicit points. First, high uncertainty in the biotechnology sector turns investors to the organisational legitimacy and reputation of the analyst. Second, the organisational age, size, performance and media coverage of the security firm reduces uncertainty of the investor in the biotechnology sector. Third, the reputation of security firm flow to its individual analysts as well as from the individual analyst to the security firm. Thus, the organisational context matters in a social setting.     

When is a MAX not the MAX? How news resolves information uncertainty

A well-known asset pricing anomaly, the “MAX” effect, measured by the maximum daily return in the past month, depicts stocks’ lottery-like features and investor gambling behaviour. Using the comprehensive stock-level Dow Jones (DJNS) news database between 1979 and 2016, we consider in a empirical setting how the presence of news reports affects these lottery-type stocks. We find an augmented negative relationship between MAX stocks without news and expected returns, whereby MAX with news coverage generates return momentum. The differing future return relationships between MAX stocks with and without news appears to be best explained by information uncertainty mitigation upon news arrival. Overall, our findings suggest that news plays a role in resolving information uncertainty in the stock market.     

Is ‘no news’ really ‘good news’? Country visibility and FDI location choice

In choosing where to invest, firms seek out information on a set of possible locations. Information asymmetries may make country visibility particularly important in decisions to locate investment abroad. We develop a country visibility index based on international news stories in The Economist, and show that broad country visibility is at least as important in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) as other specific investment promotion activities or proxies for information frictions. Controlling for standard gravity model determinants of FDI, we find that greater visibility of developing countries, in particular lower middle- and low-income countries, increases the investment that they receive from US multinational corporations.     

Chinese firms’ crash risk and CEO media exposure

This study uses panel data from China over the period 2008–2015 to examine the effect of CEO media exposure on crash risk. We show that CEO media coverage in Chinese firms has a wide dispersion and mitigates crash risk at firms. Our study confirms the important role of media to monitor effectively firm behaviours in China.