国有企业负责人素质能力评价与分析

基于国有企业负责人素质能力的影响因素，根据评价指标体系设计的原则，以国有企业负责人为研究对象，确定了由两个模块、六个要素、十八个指标构成的评价指标体系；采用模糊综合评价方法对河北省国有企业负责人的素质能力进行实证评价分析。结果表明，该评价方法可运用于其他国有企业负责人素质能力的评价研究。     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

人力资源管理系统模型研究

本文依据信息技术对人力资源管理的影响,建立了人力资源管理系统模型,并提出人力资源管理思维、方法及原则。     

Health Damage of Air Pollution: An Estimate of a Dose–Response Relationship for the Netherlands

This paper estimates the dose-response relationship between air pollution and the number of work loss days for the Netherlands. The study is based on illness data (work loss days) for the Dutch labour population and average year concentrations of air pollution in 29 districts. The dose-response relationship has been estimated by means of two different techniques: the ordinary least squares method (OLS) and the one-way fixed-effects method (OWFEM), which we consider to be more adequate. In general health effects are much smaller when OWFEM is applied than if OLS is used. With OWFEM a significant relationship is found between sulphate aerosol (SO₄), ammonia (NH₃) and the number of work loss days (WLDs). Particulates (TSP), O₃ and SO₂ have no significant effect on the number of WLDs. These results differ from those obtained in studies in the United States, which indicate that particulates (TSP) and other small particles, ozone (O₃) and to a lesser extent SO₄ and SO₂ significantly influence the number of WLDs.     

基金羊群行为的博弈分析

本文从博弈角度对信息不完全和声誉报酬型羊群行为的生成机理进行了剖析，最后从博弈均衡解出发，给出了弱化羊群行为的对策。     

厦门市绿地生态网络构建及优化策略

科学构建城市绿地生态网络，对区域生态安全、城 市可持续发展及生物多样性保护具有重要意义。基于AHP法 和GIS技术，定量分析厦门市自然生态本底，选取重要生态斑 块和廊道，采用最小费用路径法模拟潜在廊道，综合构建城 市绿地生态网络，并提出绿地生态网络优化策略。结果表明： 1)AHP法可整合区域生态、经济、人文和社会等资源，全面 客观评价现状生态斑块和廊道的重要程度；最小费用路径法可 根据生境分布特征科学模拟连通各斑块之间的潜在廊道；2)厦 门市西北部的生态基底适宜性、生态源地及廊道重要性、斑块 之间有效连通性均高于东北部及中部平原区；岛内斑块面积小 且分散，南北部存在断层现象，应适度增加踏脚石和连通廊 道；3)结合城市生态发展需求，提出构建“一片、一环、三 带、多廊道、多节点”的城市绿地生态网络。研究结果可为厦 门市绿地系统规划提供科学依据。     

上市公司可持续发展评价体系构建

目前,我国上市公司业绩评价体系门类繁多,但专门评价可持续发展能力的指标体系尚停留在探索阶段。本文在现有研究基础上,构建了上市公司可持续发展的实现模型,并选取定量指标,采用变异系数总指数法赋予权重,建立了上市公司可持续发展评价体系。以2003年我国电子行业上市公司为样本进行检验,结果发现,其结果与《2003年度中国上市公司业绩评价报告》具有一致性。     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

偏离-份额法与西安高新技术优势产业及其竞争力分析

偏离 -份额法是一个在国外区域经济和产业结构分析中被普遍使用的方法 ,具有较强的综合性和动态性。本文运用该方法在对西安高新技术产业发展现状做出科学评价的基础上 ,确定了西安未来具有发展潜力和竞争优势的高新技术产业