Do foreign exchange forecasters apply asymmetric loss functions? Evidence from three major exchange rates

This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data set, which also allows us to examine different forecast horizons and heterogeneity of forecasters.     

Managerial optimism: New observations on the unifying theory

Managerial optimism theory is behavioral finance's greatest achievement. It explains two prominent features of corporate financial behavior – over‐investment and pecking‐order capital structure preferences – that otherwise require two different theories with mutually incompatible assumptions about managerial loyalties to shareholder‐value maximization. After reviewing the development of managerial optimism as a unifying theory, I use a simple change of measure to transform risk‐averse optimism to risk‐neutral probabilities that can be pessimistic or optimistic depending on wealth changes. This unexplored feature has implications for, among other things, pay for performance when managers are excessively optimistic.     

Adam Smith on lotteries: an interpretation and formal restatement

The paper concerns a neglected aspect of the Wealth of Nations (with the notable exception of D. Levy 1999 Levy, D. M. 1999. “Adam Smith’s Katallactic Model of Gambling: Approbation from the Spectator.” Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21 (1): 81–91. doi:10.1017/S1053837200002868.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]), dealing directly with decision under risk. In a few pages from book I, chapter 10, Adam Smith explicitly named “lotteries” various objects of choice (possible occupations, or investment opportunities, for instance) and provided an analysis which standard expected utility glasses would hardly fit. Taking this into account allows a better understanding of the part played by typical characters like the “projector” or the “sober man”, in such matters as Smith’s conception of entrepreneurship or of the credit market. The use of some modern concepts in decision analysis (inverse stochastic dominance, rank dependent utility, prudence toward risk), is a means to show the existence, in Smith’s work, of an original theory from decision under risk, where his analysis of lotteries in the Wealth of Nations is consistent with statements from his moral philosophy on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses and to the regulating part played by the impartial spectator.     

Fundraising under two-dimensional asymmetric information: the case of mindless donations

The paper develops a model of charity’s choice of fundraising method under two dimensions of asymmetric information, quality and purpose. The main implication from this model is a separating equilibrium where the higher-quality charity uses a traditional fundraising method, while the lower-quality one exploits a low-stakes, take-it- or leave-it, ‘mindless’ method. Empirical results support the hypothesis that charities of lower quality are more likely to adopt the mindless fundraising method. Even so, consumers still choose to give in the equilibrium, due to the small requested amount of mindless donations, which disincentivizes serious thinking by consumers. The mindless method, along with purpose uncertainty, has the potential to alleviate the free-riding problem that is characteristic of public good provision and is, therefore, welfare improving.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis

Previous studies have investigated asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on the real economic activity by using either vector autoregressive (VAR)-based regime-switching models with smooth transition technique or Gaussian functions to parameterise the dynamic effects of structural shocks on the economy. These kinds of VAR models assume asymmetry as a short-run relationship between the series since the long-run neutrality hypothesis of money states that monetary policy can only affect productive capacity of the economy in the short run, but not in the long run. The recent theoretical literature shows that this hypothesis is not quite right. Thus, this paper examines the extent to which monetary policy has a long-run asymmetric effect on output in a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries by using a nonlinear hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real interest rate as an indicator of monetary policy and the growth rate of real output in five countries out of nine under review. This gives support for the view that output has responded asymmetrically to the real interest rate changes. The economic implication of our results is that monetary policy affects positive and negative output fluctuations differently.     

Does transparency of central banks communication affect credit market? Empirical evidence for advanced and emerging markets

This study examines the effect of the transparency of central banks communication on credit market. In particular, this study investigates how central banks’ effort to provide more detailed information about their objectives regarding the price stability (monetary policy transparency) and financial stability (financial stability transparency) policies are able to mitigate information asymmetry on credit market, through the net interest margin charged by the banks to engage in financial intermediation (credit spread). The findings denote central bank transparency is able to reduce the credit spread. Additionally, the evidence suggests the effect of central bank transparency on the credit spread is greater in emerging markets, where there is less information available on credit market. In brief, transparency in central banks communication is an important tool to mitigate the information asymmetry in the credit market.     

中国货币政策效果区域不对称性探讨

探讨中国货币政策效果的区域差异对于研究完善货币政策传导机制具有较强的实践意义。文章通过数据的聚类分析和模型设计对中国货币政策效果的区域差异进行了实证分析,结果显示东部地区的传导效果最为显著。对此文章阐述了地区差异的形成原因,并提出了相应的治理方法。     

信息不对称条件下银行业市场结构与市场竞争研究综述

将信息不对称理论纳入银行业市场竞争模型是当前跨经济学与金融学两个领域的热点问题。本文从理清产业组织理论中银行业市场结构与竞争和现代金融学中银行业信息不对称研究的发展脉络出发,对信息不对称与银行信息垄断和市场进入壁垒、信息不对称条件下银行的市场竞争行为等文献进行综述,评估银行业市场竞争程度的测量方法和实证分析结果。希望此综述对未来进一步的研究有所启示。     

How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?

This article empirically examines the importance of the credit channel of monetary policy in Mexico for the period 2004–2013. We estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the effects of a monetary policy shock on real output, and we also use a threshold VAR model to investigate asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary policies. The empirical results suggest that a contractionary monetary policy results in a fall in the supply of loans together with an increase in the spread between the lending and deposit rate. To the extent that some borrowers are dependent on bank loans for credit, the reduced supply of loans amplifies the effects of monetary policy on output associated with the traditional interest rate channel. Our results also suggest that the importance of the credit channel is larger for contractionary shocks than for expansionary shocks.