MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND CONDITIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA*

This paper analyses how systematic risk emanating from the macroeconomy is transmitted into stock market volatility using augmented autoregressive Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (AR‐GARCH) and vector autoregression (VAR) models. Also examined is whether the relationship between the two is bidirectional. By imposing dummies for the 1997‐1998 Asian and the 2007‐2009 sub‐prime financial crises, the study further analyses whether financial crises affect the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility. The findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences stock market volatility. Although volatilities in inflation, the gold price and the oil price seem to play a role, it is found that volatility in short‐term interest rates and exchange rates are the most important, suggesting that South African domestic financial markets are increasingly becoming interdependent. Finally, the results show that financial crises increase volatility in the stock market and in most macroeconomic variables, and, by so doing, strengthen the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the stock market.     

证券监管者声誉和承销商声誉的关联性研究

作者通过构建不对称信息结构下的两阶段博弈模型,应用Bayes法则对证券监管者声誉和承销商声誉的动态化以及二者声誉变动的关联性进行了研究。模型结论显示,监管者对承销商的违规或错误评估行为的“宽容”以及任何“下不为例”的监管思维不仅会加剧自身声誉的下降,而且会导致承销商评估失误概率的上升和承销商声誉的下降,表明监管者声誉和承销商声誉具有一损俱损的关联性。     

供应链合作伙伴的逆向选择问题

供应链合作关系中存在不少风险。合作企业之间的信息不对称,未来事项不确定性和复杂性和因此造成的合同不完全性,使道德风险和逆向选择问题在合作中难以避免。文中从解决逆向选择问题角度,研究供应链合作伙伴选择问题。     

Information Disclosure as Environmental Regulation: A Theoretical Analysis

Governments around the world are beginning to embrace a new form of environmental regulation – mandatory disclosure of information. While information disclosure programs appear to have an impact on subsequent firm behavior – often resulting in lower levels of pollution – little is known about the costs and benefits of these programs and whether or not they enhance social welfare. This paper presents a simple bargaining model where mandatory information disclosure is used to overcome a lack of information on the part of the public. We characterize the conditions under which information disclosure will lead to a reduction in emissions, and ultimately, the conditions under which it will enhance social welfare. Several extensions of the model are briefly explored, including the effect of two sources of pollution – only one of which is subject to information disclosure. This paper was prepared while V. Santhakumar was a Visiting Scholar at the Vanderbilt Center for Environmental Management Studies, Vanderbilt University.     

Collaboration risk management in IT-enabled asymmetric partnerships: Evidence from telestroke networks

Information technology (IT)-enabled partnerships can unlock previously unattainable value propositions between organizations that have resource, capability, and other asymmetries by allowing larger organizations access to niche and local resources while providing smaller organizations access to enhanced resources and capabilities. However, recent studies have shown that many IT-enabled asymmetric partnerships often fail because the organizations do not effectively manage the involved collaboration risks. Most organizations focus on the strategic aspect of whether partners behave cooperatively or competitively, while paying scant attention to the operational aspect of bringing together partner contributions through coordination. To examine this problem, we report on a case study of two hub-spoke networks that used telemedicine to facilitate expertise sharing and decision making about stroke treatment at emergency departments in rural hospitals (spokes) based on information exchanges with remote neurologists at academic medical centers (hubs). As a result, we contribute to the inter-organizational information systems literature by explaining how organizations in IT-enabled asymmetric partnerships manage collaboration risks. We demonstrate how partners in such relationships perceive and approach strategic cooperation and operational coordination risks differently. We also explain how collaboration interactions change over time as the partners manage risks based on needs and resource endowments. Drawing on these findings, we provide guidance to organizations on how to manage sustainable IT-enabled asymmetric partnerships in general, and telestroke networks in particular.     

管理层盈余预测与不对称及时性实证研究

为了分析管理层盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性之间的关系,即发布消息的时间点和内容分类对盈余不对称及时性的影响,用Basu模型分段实证检验盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性的影响、正(负)向盈余预测与不对称及时性的关系,以及当期发布的盈余预警对盈余不对称及时性的影响。结果表明,不对称及时性对公司发布的未来盈余的影响不显著,公司发布预期盈余的时间及时性主要集中在负向盈余意外,这与价格引导盈余引起更多的未来盈余预测的向下有偏的不对称及时性系数相一致,当期发布盈余预警会降低盈余与收益的不对称及时性。管理层发布内部盈余预测,有助于缓解与外部信息使用者之间的信息不对称,满足利益相关者的决策需求,进而有助于促进证券市场向半强式有效市场转化。     

Assessing the Reliability of Self‐reported Income Information in Informal Small Business Lending through a Bogus Pipeline Experiment

Coping with asymmetric information plays a major role in successful small business lending. Our purpose is to determine if small business applicants report their income information correctly when requesting a loan. We use a randomised controlled trial bogus pipeline experiment, established during a typical cash‐flow analysis of a bank for small businesses in the Philippines. The bogus pipeline approach is commonly applied in social science and aims to increase the rate of truth telling by informing participants that answers will be verified by a lie detector. The experimental data, which include 243 observations of credit clients that are mainly from the agricultural and food value chain, served to identify asymmetric information. Additionally, debtors’ repayment behaviour for approved loans was observed by the bank. Our results indicate that loan applicants of the treatment group report lower incomes, an effect which is most pronounced in lower income quantile. Our analyses also reveal higher loan delinquencies in the control group.     

Testing vertical price transmission for Vietnam's Robusta coffee

Vietnam has undergone market reforms over the last three decades; and as a consequence, the coffee sector has become increasingly market‐driven. The success of the government's liberalisation policies in terms of market efficiency is investigated by examining the transmission of both positive and negative price changes for Robusta coffee between export and farmgate prices. We used a threshold vector error correction model and high‐frequency daily data. The primary result here is that of a symmetric price transmission between export and farm‐level prices. This result holds when tested with weekly price data, derived from the daily data. Farmgate prices respond faster to decreases than increases in export prices when the long‐run deviation exceeds a certain threshold. These price changes are transmitted within several days. This research also confirms the importance of transaction costs, and other price frictions mostly ignored in prior analyses for coffee.     

城市经营者还是市场监管者？——市场波动下地方政府土地供给非对称行为研究

研究目的:分析市场监管激励对于地方政府土地供给决策的影响。研究方法:通过建立模型对市场监管激励的影响机制进行理论分析,并基于2004—2014年中国30个省的面板数据构建门限模型进行实证检验。研究结果:地方政府的土地供给决策同时受到经济绩效和市场监管双重激励的影响,在不同的市场波动下存在非对称性:在市场较平稳时,地方政府会通过减少土地供给、提升土地价格实现其经济绩效目标;而在市场波动较大时,地方政府则会兼顾"市场监管者"的职责,通过增加土地有效供应、维持土地价格实现其经济绩效目标。研究结论:市场监管激励在地方政府的土地供给决策机制中具有显著作用,可以通过加强政绩考核中市场监管的权重来规范地方政府的土地供给行为。     

Food fraud: economic insights into the dark side of incentives

In this review, we contextualise the articles in this special issue, relating them to existing food fraud research, and identify food fraud research trends, challenges and priorities for the near term. We accomplish these aims through a comprehensive review of research by food scientists, economists, other social scientists, legal experts, government research groups and international trade organisations. Existing food fraud research is heavily weighted towards food science, packaging and labelling, and legal areas of knowledge discovery. Moving forward, research is needed pertaining to general economic welfare outcomes from food fraud incidences, economic incentives to deter frauds, economic spillovers from fraud incidences to other food products and markets (domestic and international) and further delineation of the effect of different types of food fraud on consumer and producer welfare. The articles in this special issue make significant contributions to understanding of the role of food fraud in consumer decisions, measuring consumer welfare losses from fraud, food fraud spillover effects to other markets and new frameworks for fraud analysis.