RMA and Strategic intelligence: The case of China and Japan

Two cases of China and Japan are compared in the two dimensions of strategic doctrine and the RMA program. China is disadvantaged in its general military capability; it cannot help but gain the initiative by striking first and doing the operation under a high degree of secrecy, mobility, accuracy in its concentration of firepower, and surprise. This is called the doctrine of “strategic attack” and the Chinese defense planning is called “strategic modernization.” On the other hand, the Japanese approach to RMA is called “Info‐RMA”. The Japanese basic defense strategy is a passive one and it is critical to protect the information infrastructure as Japanese territories might turn out to be the battlefield. Japan should be ready for the possibility that some pre‐RMA forces would employ asymmetrical means such as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), terrorism, or guerilla warfare. Self‐Defense Forces (SDF) also should be ready to accomplish diverse missions, such as rear‐area support for U.S. troops, as well as peacekeeping operations and disaster relief. It is ironic that the Chinese doctrine could not help but be aggressive to compensate for the weakness of strategic intelligence capability in comparison to the U.S. On the other hand, Japan could develop power‐projection capability under the name of strategic intelligence as a part of the Exclusively Defense‐Oriented Policy.     

Balance of payments crises under inflation targeting

This paper analyzes a small open economy model under inflation targeting. It shows why such a monetary regime is vulnerable to speculative attacks that take place over a short period rather than instantaneously. The speed at which the regime collapses, and the extent of reserve losses, are increasing in the central bank's explicit or implicit commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Attacks are therefore ranked, from most to least severe, as follows: Exchange rate targeting, CPI inflation targeting, domestic nontradables inflation targeting, and money targeting. Under inflation targeting the size of the attack is increasing in the tradables consumption share.     

基于主机的局域网ARP攻击防御方案

结合高校机房管理实践,分析了常见的ARP欺骗攻击的表现形式、主要危害及运作原理,提出了实际可操作的、比较完善的解决方法.     

网络攻击过程分析与防范

通过对计算机网络系统存在的安全威胁、网络攻击技术的发展趋势以及网络攻击过程的分析，给出网络系统日常管理和维护的相关措施。     

Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks

As the internet’s footprint continues to expand, cybersecurity is becoming a major concern for both governments and the private sector. One such cybersecurity issue relates to data integrity attacks. This paper focuses on the power industry, where the forecasting processes rely heavily on the quality of the data. Data integrity attacks are expected to harm the performances of forecasting systems, which will have a major impact on both the financial bottom line of power companies and the resilience of power grids. This paper reveals the effect of data integrity attacks on the accuracy of four representative load forecasting models (multiple linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy interaction regression). We begin by simulating some data integrity attacks through the random injection of some multipliers that follow a normal or uniform distribution into the load series. Then, the four aforementioned load forecasting models are used to generate one-year-ahead ex post point forecasts in order to provide a comparison of their forecast errors. The results show that the support vector regression model is most robust, followed closely by the multiple linear regression model, while the fuzzy interaction regression model is the least robust of the four. Nevertheless, all four models fail to provide satisfying forecasts when the scale of the data integrity attacks becomes large. This presents a serious challenge to both load forecasters and the broader forecasting community: the generation of accurate forecasts under data integrity attacks. We construct our case study using the publicly-available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. At the end, we also offer an overview of potential research topics for future studies.     

Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency

Models with multiple equilibria are a popular way to explain currency attacks. Morris and Shin (1998) have shown that, in the context of those models, unique equilibria may prevail once noisy private information is introduced. In this paper, we apply the method of Morris and Shin to a broader class of probability distributions and show—using the technique of iterated elimination of dominated strategies—that their results continue to hold, even if we allow for sunspots and individual uncertainty about strategic behavior of other agents. We provide a clear exposition of the logic of this model and we analyze the impact of transparency on the probability of a speculative attack. For the case of uniform distribution of noisy signals, we show that increased transparency of government policy reduces the likelihood of attacks.     

抗SSDF攻击的EWSPRT协作频谱感知方案

比较了认知无线电网络中几种典型的协作感知方案在篡改感知数据(SSDF)攻击条件下的感知 性能,并提出了一种增强型加权序贯检 测（EWSPRT）协作方案。在该方案中,各次用户首先通过能量检测得到2 bit本地决策 ,然后 收集其它协作用户的感知结果进行决策融合和最终判决,并依据历史观测信息动态更新各协 作用户的融合权重;利用改进的信任度更新算法能使恶意用户的融合权重更快地降低,从而 有效地减少SSDF攻击对协作过程的影响。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明,与传统方案相比,EWS PRT方案能够更有效地抵抗SSDF攻击。     

数字化时代的报纸生存

在网络媒体的冲击下,传统报纸的生存一度岌岌可危,甚至有人预言,传统报纸会在2044年走向灭亡。而事实上,虽然网络媒体确实取得了迅猛的发展,网络广告市场增长强劲,但报纸并未因此而走向末路,毕竟传统报纸在本地新闻和深度报道上的优势,仍是网络媒体所无法企及的。面对网络媒体的竞争压力,传统报纸媒体如果能充分发挥自己的特长,通过掌握内容资源优势来对抗网络媒体的技术优势,那么传统报纸反而能借助网络来扩大自己影响力,增强自身生存能力。从某种程度上来说,正是网络媒体咄咄逼人的姿态,促使传统报纸扬长避短,走上转变报道内容与方式的改革之路,从而增强了报纸的竞争力与生命力。     

Exchange Market Pressure in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) Area: Empirical Assessment of the Macroeconomic Determinants

ABSTRACT

The current empirical study contributes to the literature on the exchange market pressure. First we construct as proposed by Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz [1996. Contagious currency crises: First tests. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98 (4), 463–484], a continuous measure of EMP for the CAEMC franc zone, using quarterly data from 1985Q1 to 2012Q2. We then address the main macroeconomic determinants of this EMP.

We find that our main measure for EMP as well as two alternative measures of this index captures quite well episodes of crises of the CFA (XAF) currency. During the period of study, the common currency of the CAEMC countries experienced about four speculative attacks, with the one in 1993 ending with the devaluation of that currency in January 1994. The other attacks were warded off through reserves losses, as it is clear that the currency peg was maintained principally through changes in reserves. We also find that the GDP growth, the trade balance and the international oil price are the main contributors of EMP and therefore the most significant predictors of currency crises in the CAEMC area.     

Addressing shortfalls in TIA care in the UK: an economic perspective

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the clinical outcomes and costs associated with reconfiguring the management of TIA in the UK to offer patients rapid access to outpatient clinics for specialist assessment and treatment.

Methods: An economic deterministic model was run comparing two pathways – one arm representing current clinical care based on national guidelines and clinical practice and patient referral to a weekly outpatient clinic, and a revised care pathway replicating phase 2 of the EXPRESS study with patient referral to a daily outpatient clinic. The outcomes of the model were measured in terms of recurrent strokes avoided and net budget impact to secondary care.

Results: Reconfiguring TIA care pathways in the UK could result in the avoidance of 8,164 recurrent stroke events. The model predicts savings of £25,573,279 for the UK healthcare system over 12 months. Annual net savings are predicted in England (£24,916,011), Scotland (£80,554) and Northern Ireland (£1,041,817). In Wales, increased costs of £450,435 are estimated.

Limitations: Using the data published from the EXPRESS study, it is not possible to model a stepwise approach to implementing the revised TIA care pathway. It is therefore assumed that it would be possible to implement the revised TIA care pathway as detailed in the EXPRESS study across the UK and achieve the reduction in recurrent stroke risk that was reported.

Conclusions: The model suggests that the reconfiguration of TIA care pathways in the UK to offer rapid access to treatment and assessment could prevent TIA-related future stroke events and potentially result in cost savings to the healthcare system.