Effect of pension replacement rate on economic growth： A theoretical model

In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of the pension replacement rate on economic growth with the standard overlapping generations＇ model, and suggests that the pension replacement rate should keep an appropriate level for economic growth and the development of the pension system.     

中小民营企业融资创新研究：融资路径依赖与内生性契约构建

中小民营企业融资难问题的实质是中小民营企业不能在较高层次的货币市场和资本市场上如愿地获得资金支持。目前解决中小民营企业融资难问题的关键在于,创新金融制度安排,构建一种能够使外部投资者与中小民营企业建立起横向信用联系的内生性融资契约。在我国既有的金融契约框架下,通过适当的融资结构设计和制度安排,信托私募融资能够最小化中小民营企业融资的代理成本和信息成本,从而使中小民营企业能够沿着既有的融资路径有效地获得所需的资金。     

Supervisor Support for the Permanent Replacement of Economic Strikers

Sixty-one supervisors were surveyed to examine the importance of organization commitment, union approval, and quality of union-management relationship in explaining supervisor support for hiring permanent replacements in short and long strike situations. Organization commitment and union approval exhibited a unique negative relationship with support for hiring replacements in a short strike, and union approval exhibited a unique negative relationship with support for hiring replacements in a long strike situation.     

The economic value of INTUITY in aortic valve replacement

Objective: The recent development of the EDWARDS INTUITY Elite? (EIE) valve system enables the rapid deployment of a prosthetic surgical heart valve in an aortic valve replacement (AVR) procedure via both the minimally invasive (MISAVR) and conventional (CAVR) approaches. In order to understand its economic value, this study performed a cost evaluation of the EIE valve system used in a MIS rapid-deployment approach (MIS-RDAVR) vs MISAVR and CAVR, respectively, compared to standard prosthetic aortic valves.

Methods: A simulation model was developed using TreeAge (and validated with MS Excel) to compare the inpatient utilization and complication costs for each treatment arm. Thirty-day clinical end-points for the MIS-RDAVR (mortality and complications) were taken from the TRANSFORM trial; and a best evidence review of the published literature was used for the MISAVR and CAVR approaches. Studies were pooled and parameter estimates were weighted by sample size in order to compare the TRANSFORM patients. Cost data (2016 USD) were taken from the Premier database. Incremental cost and cost-effectiveness was assessed and one-way/probabilistic sensitivity analyses performed to gauge the robustness of the results.

Results: MIS-RDAVR costs $2,621 less than CAVR and had lower mortality rates, making it a superior (dominant) technology relative to CAVR. MIS-RDAVR costs $4,560 more than MISAVR, but was associated with an additional 0.20 life years-per-patient. This implies a cost-effectiveness ratio of $22,903 per-life-year-gained. Thus, MIS-RDAVR is cost-effective compared to MISAVR.

Conclusions: The EIE valve system deployed in a MIS approach appears to be a cost-effective technology compared to MISAVR and CAVR. When compared to CAVR it may achieve cost savings as well. These results suggest that MIS-RDAVR confers superior economic value compared to both standard MISAVR and CAVR via lowered key complication rates (re-operation, renal complications, wound infection, TIA, endocarditis) and utilization (cross-clamp time, hospital ward days).     

浅析不良地基处理方法

在长期的建筑物施工过程中,经常会遇见软弱不良的地基。这种地基会导致建筑物沉降量过大,沉降时间过久且具有很大的不均匀性。因此在建筑施工过程中必须重视对不良软弱地基的加固和处理,以避免建筑物产生不均匀沉降,保证工程质量和建筑物的使用寿命。     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

Optimization of the machining economics problem under the failure replacement strategy

This paper presents a model for calculating the optimal cutting feed rate and spindle speed in a stand-alone cutting machine. The optimal cutting conditions are determined for three different objective functions—minimum expected cycle time, minimum expected cost per unit, and maximum expected profit-rate—under the failure replacement strategy, taking into account cutting tool constraints and machine limitations. We also examine the relationships between the optimal solutions, and present the efficiency range of feed rate.     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

腰-硬联合麻醉在老年人股骨头置换术中的临床疗效

目的探讨腰-硬联合麻醉在老年人股骨头置换术中的临床疗效。方法回顾性分析2013年11月至2014年11月我院行股骨头置换术的59例老年患者,观察患者麻醉前、麻醉后5、10、30 min心率(HR)、收缩压(SBP)、舒张压(DBP)、动脉血氧分压(Sp O2)变化,术后并随访3 d,记录并发症情况。结果麻醉后患者的5、10、30 min的SBP、DBP与麻醉前比较均降低(P<0.05);各时点HR及Sp O2比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。优良率为98.3%,术后无恶心呕吐、头痛等麻醉相关并发症。结论腰-硬联合阻滞在老年人股骨头置换术中的麻醉效果明显,安全可靠。