The evolution of world trade from 1995 to 2014: A network approach

This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. However, these features do not correspond to a linear aggregation of the characteristics of its constituents (trade sectors). Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007–2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a two-group (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure.     

Credit card cash‐out as informal financing: Evidence from China

Using a proprietary account‐level database from a commercial bank in China, we document that credit card holders can ease their credit constraints through the practice of cash‐out based on bogus transactions using credit cards. We find that such behaviour might be beneficial to both cardholders and banks. First, we find that a 1% increase in the cumulative number of credit card cash‐out transactions lowers the probability of default by 9.59%. Second, for private businesses, a 1% increase in the number of abnormal cash‐out transactions lowers overdue risk by 13.45%. Third, by lowering the overdue risk, the card‐issuing bank earns a larger profit. Our results are consistent with the notion that unconventional credit card cash‐out can mitigate the extent of capital misallocation in emerging markets.     

The economics of the super‐multiplier: A comprehensive treatment with labor markets

This paper links the super‐multiplier to Keynesian macroeconomics, showing it to be the most Keynesian of growth perspectives. Next, the paper shows that the super‐multiplier is a micro‐economically coherent theory of investment and capital accumulation. Firms’ decisions regarding capital accumulation coordinate demand and supply growth in goods markets. The paper then explores the implications of incorporating the super‐multiplier in the neo‐Kaleckian and Cambridge growth models. Lastly, it shows how labor markets and unemployment can be added into super‐multiplier models to provide a comprehensive growth model that addresses Solow's (1956, Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94) labor market knife‐edge problem. Incorporating labor markets does not change the fundamental super‐multiplier result that growth is determined by the growth of autonomous demand.     

HOW DO RATING AGENCIES’ DECISIONS IMPACT STOCK MARKETS? A META‐ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine how credit rating agencies’ decisions impact the stock market using a systematic and quantitative review of existing empirical studies. Specifically, we employ a meta‐regression analysis (MRA) to investigate the extent and nature of the effect of rating agencies’ decisions on the stock market. We survey 62 studies published between 1978 and 2015. Our first finding is that the cumulative average abnormal returns calculated from this empirical literature are affected by publication bias. After controlling for publication bias, the main findings of our meta‐analysis indicate that negative rating decisions cause statistically significant negative abnormal returns. This evidence suggests an informational effect. Our results also indicate that positive rating decisions do not have a significant effect. Finally, the MRA results reveal the importance of several factors related to primary study design, as well as to the nature of the data.     

Jensen's alpha and the market‐timing puzzle

Theory predicts that market‐timing activities bias Jensen's alpha (JA). However, empirical studies have failed to find consistent evidence of this bias. We tackle this puzzle in a nested model analysis and show that the bias contains an exogenous market component that is unrelated to market‐timing skill. In a comprehensive empirical analysis of US mutual funds, we find that the timing‐induced bias in JA is mainly driven by this market component, which is uncorrelated with measured timing activities. Measures of total performance that allow for timing activities are virtually identical to JA, even if timing activities are present in the evaluated fund. Hence, we conclude that JA is a sufficient measure of total performance.     

The Coordination Role of Stress Tests in Bank Risk‐Taking

We examine whether stress tests distort banks' risk‐taking decisions. We study a model in which a regulator may choose to rescue banks in the event of concurrent bank failures. Our analysis reveals a novel coordination role of stress tests. Disclosure of stress‐test results informs banks of the failure likelihood of other banks, which can reduce welfare by facilitating banks' coordination in risk‐taking. However, conducting stress tests also enables the regulator to more effectively intervene banks, coordinating them preemptively into taking lower risks. We find that, if the regulator has a strong incentive to bail out, stress tests improve welfare, whereas if the regulator's incentive to bail out is weak, stress tests impair welfare.     

Robust Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix

This paper studies a robust continuous‐time Markowitz portfolio selection problem where the model uncertainty affects the covariance matrix of multiple risky assets. This problem is formulated into a min–max mean‐variance problem over a set of nondominated probability measures that is solved by a McKean–Vlasov dynamic programming approach, which allows us to characterize the solution in terms of a Bellman–Isaacs equation in the Wasserstein space of probability measures. We provide explicit solutions for the optimal robust portfolio strategies and illustrate our results in the case of uncertain volatilities and ambiguous correlation between two risky assets. We then derive the robust efficient frontier in closed form, and obtain a lower bound for the Sharpe ratio of any robust efficient portfolio strategy. Finally, we compare the performance of Sharpe ratios for a robust investor and for an investor with a misspecified model.     

Employee performance,well‐being,and differential effects of human resource management subdimensions: Mutual gains or conflicting outcomes?

The human resource management (HRM) literature supports the idea that coherent systems of HRM practices can induce attitudinal effects when perceived subjectively by employees. Recently, scholars have proposed that subdimensions of HRM systems exist and account for variance in outcomes. This study explores differential effects of three subdimensions of HRM systems (skill‐, motivation‐, and opportunity‐enhancing HRM practices) on employee innovative behaviours and well‐being. Our predictions are based on the mutual gains perspective, which specifies positive relationships between HRM practices and employee performance, and the conflicting outcomes perspective that links HRM practices to higher job demands and stress. Using data from the Finnish 2012 Practices of Working Life Survey, we find support for both the mutual gains and conflicting outcomes perspectives; however, we also show that the effects of the subsets of HRM practices are heterogeneous.     

Microfoundations of companies' dynamic capabilities for environmentally sustainable innovation: Case study insights from high‐tech innovation in science‐based companies

To achieve sustainable development, companies are increasingly putting an emphasis on the creation and the promotion of environmentally sustainable innovations. Environmentally sustainable innovation often involves a significant shift in a new strategic direction. This paper studies this shift from a dynamic capabilities perspective and aims to identify the microfoundations of science‐based companies' dynamic capabilities for high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations. It investigates the development of high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations in two distinctive science‐based companies. To scholars, this study provides an in‐depth process analysis, over time, of how and why microfoundations of dynamic capabilities influence the development of a science‐based company's high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovations. To practitioners in science‐based firms, this process study can function as a frame of reference, enabling the tailoring of a strategy for high‐tech environmentally sustainable innovation.     

Innovation Offshoring,Institutional Context and Innovation Performance: A Meta‐Analysis

Innovation offshoring (IO) has become a widespread management practice. Yet, evidence on the performance implications is inconsistent, and scattered across disciplines and contexts. We argue that the benefits firms can derive from IO depend on the institutional environment at home. Drawing on recent work on institutional theory in international business, we explore institutions that facilitate reverse knowledge transfer and/or institutional arbitrage with respect to innovation‐related activities. The results of our meta‐analysis that synthesizes evidence from 48 samples show that IO is related positively to innovation performance. As predicted, this relationship is moderated by differences in the institutional environments across countries. Specifically, when national innovation systems are weak at home, IO appears to enable institutional arbitrage strategy whereas Confucian cultures enable more effective reverse knowledge transfer. However, contrary to our expectations, the beneficial effects of IO appear to have diminished over time.