On structural inelasticity of modal substitution in freight transport

At the European level there is an increasing focus on how freight transport can be moved from trucks on roads to more environmentally friendly modes such as rail and ship. A large proportion of the transport services between OD pairs, however, cannot be substituted since there is only one alternative available. The paper investigates the magnitude of this “structural inelasticity” of modal substitution in freight transport due to a sparser layout of rail and ship-based freight networks compared to road. In the analysis we use a recent Scandinavian freight demand model covering more than 800 zones. We find that the structural inelasticity is very significant - in particular for transportation over less than 500 km. Moreover, the inelasticity varies greatly with commodity groups and between OD pairs, and it depends strongly on the port and rail infrastructure. The results suggest that pure charging instruments (road pricing for trucks) in many regions will have limited mode substitution impacts. However, if combined with structural changes in terms of improved infrastructure for rail and ship, impacts may be greater.     

Regional airport choice: Consumer behaviour and policy implications

The analysis of origin airports in multi-airport regions has a well established tradition in transportation and regional economics. The main goal of the paper is to estimate the importance of the different attributes that determine origin airport choice. In our case we adopt a stated preference approach to study this problem and evaluate the effects of possible policy interventions. We also perform a detailed segmentation of the sample studied according to the socio-economic variables that prove statistically relevant when interacted with the attributes used to characterise airport choice. Moreover, in order to test for the presence of heterogeneity in agents’ preferences we estimate several mixed logit models with different specifications, including heteroscedasticity and error component. With respect to previous studies we develop and extend the traditional SP approach by also analysing the role and relevance of attribute cut-offs in this research field. The policy simulations produced are based on the estimation of airport-specific attributes. The study concentrates on a multi-airport region in central Italy where four competing airports are located.     

广东企业对东盟国家直接投资的产业区位选择

广东企业对东盟直接投资存在两种不同的投资:优势型对外直接投资和学习型对外直接投资。文章据此探寻广东企业对东盟直接投资的区位,从东盟的产品市场和资源禀赋出发,分别分析了广东省在高新技术产业、第三产业、优势产业、边际产业、资源类产业及小规模技术产业的企业对东盟国家的不同投资指向。     

农户经济视角下的我国农村土地流转影响因素——基于Multiple Choice Model的调查研究

利用农户土地流转问卷调查所得到的微观数据,采用统计分析、Probit multiple choicemodel方法,将农户经济行为中的保障性行为、投资行为、就业行为和产业选择行为引入土地流转的实证研究领域。研究结果显示：目前的土地流转多为暂时性流转,土地流转结构性供需矛盾严重;农户对土地的需求目的更多来自于保障性需要;农户的投资行为、就业行为、社会保障行为对土地流转有着重要影响。     

宏观经济波动、公司规模和资本结构选择

中国宏观经济2006—2008年的波动为资本结构自然实验法研究提供了条件。选择该期间行业内资产规模最大和最小的中国A股上市公司作为研究样本,实证研究了宏观经济波动对不同规模上市公司资本结构选择的影响。研究发现:宏观经济波动对大规模上市公司和小规模上市公司的资本结构影响存在显著差异,不同规模的公司均显著改变了其融资行为;宏观经济状况和公司规模是上市公司资本结构选择的重要因素。     

理性选择、比较方法与国际政治经济学

国际政治经济学从国际关系中分离之后,汲取了经济学和比较政治学等诸多学科的研究方法,研究方法成为国际政治经济学区别于国际关系其他领域的重要特征,也是区分国际政治经济学国际组织学派和英国学派的重要标准。在国际政治经济学发展过程中常用的两种研究方法是理性选择和比较方法,后者通常可以划分为大样本统计和小样本案例分析。是否采用源自经济学的理性选择和使用大样本统计还是小样本案例分析成为目前国际政治经济学方法论争议的核心问题。国际政治经济学研究应当充分重视研究方法的掌握,作为西方国际政治经济学理论的消费者,要实现同西方学者的对话,我们必须掌握相应的研究方法;研究方法服务于议题设定,任何方法都有其优势和局限性,应当根据自己议题需要谨慎地使用某种或者多种研究方法;应当关注经济学和比较政治学发展的新动向和新发展,这两个学科对国际政治经济学及其研究方法的影响还将继续。     

东北地区主导产业新选择问题研究

现代经济的增长本质上是以产业结构的变动为核心,产业结构成为区域经济发展的内在标志。区域经济要保持健康、快速、稳定持续的发展,就必须对其产业结构进行优化,而产业结构优化的一个重要内容就是区域主导产业的选择以及在此基础上进行的产业结构调整。能否正确选择区域主导产业,关系到区域经济整体的发展方向和速度。文章通过探讨现阶段东北地区的主导产业,为东北地区今后发展的方向提出新的选择。     

Using choice experiments to value catchment and estuary health in Tasmania with individual preference heterogeneity*

Choice experiments (CE) have become widespread as an approach to environmental valuation in both Australia and overseas. However, there are few valuation studies that have addressed natural resource management (NRM) changes in Tasmania. Furthermore, few studies have focussed on the estimation of estuary values. The CE study described in this paper aims to analyse community preferences for NRM options in the George catchment, Tasmania. Catchment health attributes were: the length of native riverside vegetation; the number of rare native animal and plant species in the George catchment; and area of healthy seagrass beds in the Georges Bay, which was used as a measure of estuary condition. Mixed logit models with interactions between socio‐economic variables and the choice attributes were estimated to account for systematic and random taste heterogeneity across respondents. Results reveal considerable variation in preferences towards the attributes and show that value estimates are significantly impacted by the way in which we account for preference heterogeneity. Preference heterogeneity thus needs to be considered when estimating community willingness‐to‐pay for environmental changes. This study further shows little responsiveness to the presented changes in estuary seagrass area.     

Distress rentals and the land rental market as a safety net: contract choice evidence from Tigray,Ethiopia

Rural households in the semiarid Northern Ethiopian highlands are net buyers of food. Crop failure due to erratic and unpredictable rainfall occurs frequently and leads to food shortages and income shocks. The renting out of land may be one of the coping responses of households exposed to shocks. We developed a theoretical household model for poor landlord households capturing their contract choice response to downside production shocks. We tested econometrically whether contract choice may depend on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. The multinomial logit model estimates show that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed‐rent contracts as a distress response to shocks, suggesting that fixed‐rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs, but at the expense of future incomes. We also found that fixed‐rent contracts are preferred when ex ante production risk is low, while sharecropping is more likely where production risk is high. Finally, we found an indication that the choice of a fixed‐rent contract as a coping response to shocks comes as a last resort after all other means of coping are exhausted.     

技术模仿、技术创新的战略选择模型和经济增长

一国技术水平程度的高低在很大程度上影响和决定了该国经济发展的水平和经济增长的速度,技术水平提高的途径主要有两种:技术模仿和技术创新.但技术创新并不只是发达国家的"专利",技术创新除了与人均资本存量和人均人力资本水平有关外,也与总体的人均资本存量和人力资本水平有关.本文将国家技术发展战略分为四类,并给出了各种不同技术发展战略的情景条件.