如何治理逃税:一个基于风险的概率模型

税收是经济的手段和社会的手段,但更多的是出于社会均衡发展的目的;税收是利他主义的,逃税则是利己主义的;边际逃税倾向与收入高低有明显的关系,逃税的风险也与其收益成正比,逃税被查处并受到惩罚的概率是政策的函数.收入公平合理性问题与税负公平合理同样是重要的治理因缘,治理逃税就成为一个全球性的课题.     

基于消费者价值观的市场细分实证研究

我国消费者的价值观念和消费行为越来越复杂,影响消费者决策的决定因素是其深层的生活形态、价值观等,根据生活方式和价值观将消费者进行细分,无疑具有重要意义。文章主要以前期调查数据为基础,通过因子分析、聚类分析、广义对应分析等统计分析方法,将消费者分为自信进取型、时尚享乐型和传统保守型三个细分市场,并对每一个细分市场从消费者所在城市及其文化程度两个方面作了分析。     

江浙两省外商直接投资的动态关系研究

江苏省和浙江省作为长三角地区的两个经济强省,分别位于上海两翼,地域相连、经济相融,两省之间的外商直接投资存在着相互影响、相互作用的动态关系。文章运用动态计量模型,采用模拟冲击法就江浙两省外商直接投资的动态关系进行了实证分析,研究结果表明江苏省外商直接投资增长对浙江省具有较大的溢出效应,而浙江省对江苏省的溢出效应非常小。     

Foreign aid and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia

This paper attempts to examine the growth impact of foreign aid in Cambodia over the period 1980–2014, using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study also incorporates investment and trade openness into the model. The empirical findings show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in both the short run and the long run; investment has positively contributed to growth in the long run while foreign aid has positive impact on growth only for the short run. On the contrary, in the long run, it has negative impact on investment and growth. This can be suggested that dependence on foreign aid for long periods of time does not positively contribute to investment and growth in Cambodia. In order to achieve sustainable growth and enhanced industrialization, policy-makers should move from aid dependence to promote investments through elevating domestic and foreign capital in the country.     

融合改进FT显著性与Grabcut的图像目标分割算法

针对目前复杂度较大的图像中目标分割速度较慢、显著性边界分割不明确等问题,提出了一种融合改进的FT（Frequency-tuned）显著性检测与Grabcut的图像分割算法。该算法首先通过改进基于频率调谐的FT显著性检测方法得到图像中显著性较高的区域,并利用SLIC（Simple Linear Iterative Clustering）算法对显著图进行预处理得到超像素图,能够有效改善边界的分割效果,然后通过以图论GraphCut算法为基础改进的Grabcut算法建立高斯混合模型。为了提高算法效率,通过聚类以超像素代替原像素,并反复迭代高斯混合模型（Gaussian Mixed Model,GMM）参数,最后利用最大流最小割算法得到最优目标分割结果。实验结果表明所提算法能够更准确更高效率地分割图像中的显著性目标,对高分辨率图像也有很好的适用效果,相比于其他算法在分割精度上提高10%左右,并具有较高的分割效率。     

直升机卫星通信系统信道模拟与通信实现

针对直升机卫星通信系统中直升机旋翼对通信信道造成的周期性衰落问题,采用射频收发器AD9361模拟了信道周期性衰落模型,基于此模型在现场可编程门阵列(Field Programmable Gate Array,FPGA)上优化并实现了缝隙检测算法。根据信道衰落模型和缝隙检测算法及数据链路速率和带宽的要求,提出了一套直升机卫星通信系统可靠通信方案,即前向链路采用重发和分集接收及短码LDPC编码技术,返向链路根据前向链路缝隙检测的结果在无遮挡缝隙采用突发通信和长码低密度奇偶校验(Low Density Parity Check,LDPC)编码技术,实现可靠通信。系统测试结果表明,该方案不受直升机机型限制,系统可在40%遮挡率下实现前向链路25.6 kb/s和返向链路4 Mb/s速率下的可靠通信。     

我国旅游者消费模式与行为特征分析

目前我国经济体制转轨过程中面临着有效需求不足的问题,释放被旧体制抑制的消费能量已成为经济工作的重点。旅游具有高效快速拉动消费的功能,因此研究旅游者的消费模式及行为特征极具现实意义。首先澄清了经济意义上常被混淆旅游者消费与旅游消费的概念,其次提出了多维度的定义模式。把心理体验、社会互动、经济支持这些旅游者消费的突出特征,定义为内层维度,把空间维度、时间维度、文化维度这些限制内层的因素定义为外层维度。最后,分析了每一纬度的消费模式及相应的行为特征。     

Winning us with trifles: Adverse selection in the use of philanthropy as insurance

Research Summary: We study the use of corporate philanthropy as a form of reputation insurance, developing a formal model of such insurance to examine how the terms of insurance in equilibrium change under different assumptions about the firm and its stakeholders. We then test the predictions from this model in the U.S. petroleum industry and find that philanthropic donations offer insurance‐like benefits, but are also positively associated with subsequent oil spills—firms that give more, spill more—with this association being stronger for spills that are under firms’ control and in states with low civic capacity. These results are consistent with an adverse selection/moral hazard equilibrium and suggest that the use of philanthropy as reputation insurance may benefit firms at the cost of society. Managerial Summary: Firms that donate to social causes develop a reputation for being socially responsible, and are often given the benefit of doubt when negative information about them comes to light. But are philanthropic firms truly more responsible? We argue that firms that donate more may be more likely to do harm—those that expect to do harm later are likely to give more now, and those that know their reputation protects them may become less careful. Evidence from the U.S. petroleum industry is consistent with this argument, with firms that give more having more subsequent oil spills, but only the type of spills that are under the firm's control, and only in states where the firm faces weaker scrutiny.     

台湾地区风险投资运作的经验借鉴及其启示

我国台湾地区风险投资业虽起步较晚,但由于政府大力扶植和组织管理模式创新等,已发展成为继美国之后的风险投资发展最好的地区。然而,国内学者一提到风险投资经验借鉴,首先就会想到美国。但事实上,美国现在风险投资业所处的金融环境、风险投资运作模式、科技经济水平、相关的法律、乃至于创业投资本身存在的目的和意义都与我国有很大的区别。相比之下台湾地区和大陆的风险投资业在起步之初,都是政府主导型的,而且起步期也大致相近,所以,台湾地区风险投资业的发展应对我们更有借鉴意义。本文通过从政府扶植组织管理模式等方面具体分析,总结和借鉴台湾地区风险投资发展的经验,对我国大陆风险投资发展的启示。     

技术演化Logistic模型的扩展:多种技术创新演化的选择过程分析

典型的技术演化Logistic模型描述的是当存在两种新、旧技术的竞争时,单种创新的技术随时间的演化而扩散演化的轨迹,其缺陷是没有对多种创新技术同时作用进行分析。本文考虑一个改进的创新技术的扩散模型,拓展Logistic模型的解释空间,用技术适应度、新技术选择“尝试努力”时所运行的时间、平均尝试次数、“尝试努力”成功次数的平均概率等指标,来考察在一个固定的技术选择空间内,多种技术演化的随机寻优轨迹和寻优难度;从而在一定程度上为拓展技术选择空间引入新技术,不断进行技术创新提供理论解释。